Data Munching | What the WHO report on tobacco use tells us

Smokers around the world are quitting — men more than women — and at least one-third of the adolescents who use tobacco products are using e-cigarettes

In a report released earlier this week, the World Health Organization (WHO) delivered some good news — the use of tobacco across the world has tumbled drastically since 2000 and is on course to continue dropping till at least 2030. The United Nations health body said that the drop has come despite efforts by “Big Tobacco” seeking to influence global health policies to its own advantage. The report was prepared based on surveys conducted by 182 nations and the EU among people above the age of 15 years between 1990 and 2022.

Men consistently exhibit higher tobacco use rates than women, but more men have quit smoking than women(iStock/HT Archive)

While the headline numbers of the report offer a wider perspective, let’s take a deeper dive into what the numbers in the report suggest.

Tobacco prevalence shrinks despite efforts by the industry

In 2000, one in every three persons (32.7%) above the age of 15 years were smokers or consumed other tobacco products. This number has seen a consistent decline since then. In 2020, one in five people (21.7%) in the same age group reported they were smokers or consumers of tobacco products, according to the UN report. In even more good news, projections suggest that this downward trajectory is set to continue, with estimates reaching 18.1% by 2030.

Diving in: Men smoke more; more men quit

Breaking down these numbers, however, highlights the wide gap between the two genders – men consistently exhibit higher tobacco use rates than women, but more men have quit smoking than women. At the start of the analysis period (in 2000), nearly half of all men (49.1%) in the world were tobacco consumers. This, however, fell to 35.5% by 2020 and is further expected to decline to 30.6% by 2030. Among women, tobacco usage fell from 16.3% in 2000 to 7.9% in 2020 and is projected to decrease to 5.7% by 2030.

The WHO report struck a note of caution against the efforts by the tobacco industry in trying to undermine this progress in the decreasing number of smokers. WHO director of health (promotion department) Ruediger Krech warned that industry heads are using “what I would personally call criminal efforts” to promote their products among children under new heads such as e-cigarettes (more on this later). “They are killing, and they continue to do everything possible to undermine the countries’ very good efforts,” said Krech.

WHO also warned that the world appears likely to miss its goal of a 30% drop in tobacco use between 2010 and 2025. A total of 56 nations, including India are likely to hit the target, while on the other end of the spectrum, six nations — the Republic of Congo, Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Moldova and Oman — have seen tobacco use rise.

What about India?

India appeared to be one of the countries that offered better signs than the global average. At the start of 2000, 46% of Indian men consumed tobacco — 3.1 percentage points below the global average in the same group. By 2020, this group had dropped consumption to 14.3% — a whopping 21 percentage points below the global average. By 2030, this gap is likely to widen to around 22.4 percentage points, according to the report’s estimates.

In terms of overall figures, the use of tobacco among Indians dropped from 27.6% (5 percentage points below the global figure) in 2000 to 8% (13.7 percentage points below the global prevalence) in 2020.

Projections for 2030 indicate a further decline in Indian numbers, with anticipated rates dropping to 8.2% for men, 0.6% for women, and 4.5% overall.

Who’s still smoking?

The data showed that the use of tobacco tends to present very age-specific patterns — with middle-aged people being the heaviest consumers, while those who are young and old are the least influenced by usage.

In 2020, the age group 45-54 years had the highest number of tobacco users — 27.5% — followed closely by the 55-64 year group (25.8%) and 35-44 year age group (25.6%). On the other end, only 12.9% of those above the age of 85 were tobacco users in 2020—the least among any age group. This was followed by the 15-24 age group, where 13.3% of people were tobacco users.

To be sure, a general decline in tobacco use appears to be visible across all age groups, reflecting the overall findings of this report.

The use of tobacco products among individuals aged 15 years and older, however, varied vastly across regions, the report highlighted. South-East Asia and Europe reported the highest prevalence at 26.5% and 25.3% in 2020, respectively. The Western Pacific region followed closely at 22.5%. The global average stood at 20.9%, with variations such as 17.9% in the Eastern Mediterranean, 16.6% in the Americas, and notably lower rates in Africa at 9.5%.

 

A warning over e-cigarettes

The report also highlighted the tobacco industry's promotion of e-cigarettes, vaping and other smokeless products. While companies have insisted over the past few decades that they are not targeting young people, senior WHO officials warned that the flavours and types of products on offer target youngsters. While the report tried to estimate the global prevalence of e-cigarette use, WHO officials said they were unable to consistently gather it as too many countries did not provide them.

In the report, WHO urged all countries to maintain and strengthen control policies on e-cigarettes. (India legislated the Prohibition of Electronic Cigarette Act (PECA) in 2019, which bans the use, sale, manufacture and even advertisement of e-cigarettes). It said that on average, around 10% of the 13-15-year age group globally use one or more types of tobacco. That amounts to at least 37 million adolescents, including at least 12 million who use new smokeless tobacco products — that’s one in three adolescents who have taken to smoking/using tobacco. In some ways, we’ve come full circle and the Big Tobacco still has us in its grip.

Data Munching is a weekly column in which Jamie Mullick takes data sets from around the globe, chews on them and puts forth an in-depth analysis of an event in the news