Grand Strategy | Tensions in the Middle East will Test India’s balancing Act in the region
With a neighbourhood in turmoil, an aggressive China, and pressure of Russia-Ukraine war, the last thing Delhi would like to have is conflict in the Middle East
The killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by the Israeli forces in Beirut, the latest in a series of events triggered by the attack on Israel by Hamas in October last year, is set to escalate tensions in the Middle East. For us in India, this could become a stress test for India’s delicate balancing act in the region.
But before we get to what the churning in the Middle East means for us, let me describe the broader context in which the Middle East tensions have major geopolitical implications for India. India’s foreign policy has been operating in a uniquely favourable strategic environment shaped by several factors. For one, growing great power rivalry - or the absence of great power consensus – has allowed India to balance the various fault lines and advance its interests. Moreover, with major powers particularly eager to secure India’s support in their systemic rivalries, New Delhi has been able to extract concessions that cater to its own geopolitical needs.
Secondly, rising insecurities in Europe have also forced European states to reach out to India for support, leaving aside their usual moralpolitik. This has helped New Delhi pursue its interests with minimal disapproval. Thirdly, India’s growing global influence and material power have enabled it to capitalise on the opportunities created by this unique strategic environment.
In other words, the proactive Indian foreign policy in the recent past has been premised on two assumptions: One, in an unstable world where there is little great power consensus, New Delhi’s ability to pursue its interests will be largely unencumbered. Two, India will be able to use the systemic instability and the lack of great power harmony to balance the various sides to pursue its interests. However, recent developments and rising tensions in the Middle East could jeopardise India’s unique position and its ability to reap benefits from global /regional instability.
India and the Middle East
One of the main reasons why the rising tensions in the Middle East concern us is because they have the potential to upend a unique relationship New Delhi has cultivated with Middle Eastern states, especially those in the Persian Gulf. New Delhi has built strong relationships with Gulf countries through a nuanced approach that balances positive relations with Israel, Sunni Muslim states, and Shia-majority Iran. In keeping with this strategy, India has been actively participating in the Middle East’s (increasingly) post-American geopolitical landscape, and working with the region’s push for normalisation through cultural modernisation, investment diversification and regional coalition building. New Delhi has also, keeping China’s rise in the region in mind, been collaborating with the US and Israel in regional geoeconomic and geopolitical initiatives.
This de-ideologised approach, rooted in interests, has been proven effective for Delhi. Among other things, the Gulf states have hyphenated India and Pakistan, discreetly assisting India in addressing Islamist terrorism, particularly those with roots or presence in the region.
Challenges and Emerging Tensions
This is the context in which the rising tensions in the Middle East must be viewed from an Indian perspective. As a matter of fact, both India and Gulf countries have been downplaying the Palestinian cause in their foreign policy priorities, for one. If the current tensions revive the debate on Palestine, it could constrain India’s balanced approach to the issue, as it would for the Gulf states as well. If, indeed, the popular sentiments on the streets of the Gulf states push for a proactive pro-Palestine policy, this could eventually impact India’s approach as well, even if neither would want a shift.
Secondly, if the crisis in the Middle East persists, India-Iran relations may inevitably face increased strain as tensions between Iran, Israel, and the US escalate. Will India be able to continue to engage Iran in pursuit of its own geopolitical interests at a time when Tehran’s rivalry with Israel and Washington intensifies? Thirdly, growing tensions in the Middle East rise may trigger a stronger alignment among Russia, Iran, North Korea, and potentially China, further constraining India's ability to navigate the region’s complex geopolitical landscape.
Finally, persistent tensions in the Middle East would require India to manage the repercussions of two crises, albeit in two relatively distant regions: Russia-Ukraine on the one hand and Israel-Iran on the other.
With an immediate neighbourhood already in deep turmoil, an aggressive China next door, and the impact of and pressure the Russia-Ukraine war building on India, the last thing New Delhi would like to have is a regional conflict in the Middle East. And yet, as of today, it seems that the region is headed toward a conflict. And whether or not New Delhi takes sides, the weeks and months ahead will present New Delhi with difficult choices capable of reshaping India’s carefully negotiated balance with the region’s competing power centres.
Happymon Jacob teaches India’s foreign policy at JNU and is the founder of the Council for Strategic and Defence Research. The views expressed are personal
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