India-Canada ties will remain frozen for the remainder of PM Trudeau’s term

Canada, in recent times, has consumed as much, if not more, bandwidth in India than Pakistan, and the situation is far from showing any improvement

The external affairs ministry (MEA) has increasingly devoted its attention to Canada in recent years. In fact, officials have said that until the departure of Sheikh Hasina from Bangladesh in August following protests there, Canada was actually consuming more bandwidth in New Delhi than even Pakistan.

India and Canada are unlikely to have high commissioners appointed for however long the embattled Trudeau government remains in power. (AP)(HT_PRINT)

Over the past week, that bandwidth consumption has certainly exploded. Given the communique from Ottawa that India’s high commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma and five other senior diplomats and officials stationed in Canada were “persons of interest” in an investigation. That investigation is in their alleged role in India manipulating criminal gangs, mainly that of Lawrence Bishnoi, to target Canadians, particularly pro-Khalistan elements, through violent crime including murders, extortion and drive-by shootings.

India’s response to that communique on Sunday was explosive. The communication’s content was described as “preposterous imputations” and thereafter, it went on to attack Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau himself. “Prime Minister Trudeau’s hostility to India has long been in evidence,” it said. That was perhaps among the more polite assertions about Trudeau, as it added his Government “consciously provided space to violent extremists and terrorists to harass, threaten and intimidate Indian diplomats and community leaders in Canada.” It didn’t name but reference New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh as someone who “openly espouses a separatist ideology.”

That language stunned observers. Incredibly, the India-Canada space, with the removal of six diplomats and officials from each nation within the period of hours, overshadowed external affairs minister S Jaishankar’s visit to the Pakistan capital for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting.

“The scathing nature of New Delhi’s initial statement was reminiscent of how it often calls out Pakistan, its arch-enemy, for being a state sponsor of terrorism. India essentially accused Ottawa of harbouring violent extremists and terrorists. They are not wrong in making that assessment since it is also a belief broadly shared by Canada's Five Eyes allies and others, in light of ongoing events like the Middle East conflict, and also on account of the Trudeau government's permissiveness toward unchecked immigration, transnational crime, terrorism, and terror financing," noted Toronto-based national security analyst Joe Adam George.

India and Canada are unlikely to have high commissioners appointed for however long the embattled Trudeau government remains in power. The resumption of postings will depend on the posture adopted by his successor. But the ray of light in that bleak landscape is that India’s anger is directed at Trudeau, not Canada. Ajay Bisaria, who served as high commissioner in both Islamabad and Ottawa, said, “India in fact sees the current diplomatic crisis as a short-term Trudeau government problem, rather than a Canada problem.”

He said there were three differences between the approaches towards Pakistan and Canada. Firstly, the global interests of both countries are “aligned”. Secondly, the India-Pakistan standoff is a more serious neighbourly conflict, with its roots in the Kashmir issue and terrorism. While this political problem between adversarial neighbours has a veto on business/trade or people-level ties, the story is different with Canada. Despite the inter-government relationship crashing, business and people-to-people links are reasonably insulated from the turmoil in Canada’s case. Thirdly there is no large Indian diaspora in Pakistan, unlike in Canada, that could potentially further or vex the relationship.

The difference, therefore, is that the Canada conundrum may have a solution while the Pakistan riddle’s resolution cannot be foreseen. But as India’s concerns over Canada providing safe havens to pro-Khalistan extremists remain unaddressed beyond anodyne statements, the North American nation will remain a significant challenge. As a professor of political science at Kwantlen Polytechnic University in British Columbia Shinder Purewal said, “Prime Minister Trudeau has thrown the entire diplomacy in the dustbin to please his Khalistani supporters, who helped him enormously with delegates and money during the Liberal leadership. Even after India had carried out nuclear explosions in 1974, the reaction of Justin Trudeau’s father Prime Minister Pierre Elliot Trudeau was measured. He understood that secrecy is the cornerstone of diplomacy. Who is hurting? Canadian businesses are missing the gravy train of the fastest growing Indian economy and the Indian-Canadian community which will suffer the consequences of visa restrictions from both sides.”

“He is siding with forces trying to dismember India, supports terrorism in the South Asian country and has indulged in terrorism in Canada. Air India flight 182 bombing by Khalistani terrorists remains the largest terrorist act in the history of Canada,” he elaborated. Canada certainly has the most pronounced separatist contingent beyond India’s borders outside the usual suspect. And they tend to be even more influential within Canada’s borders in influencing politics.

The easy prediction to make with regard to India-Canada ties is that things can always get worse. But that does leave plenty of room for improvement. As Bisaria said, “Canada is not the new Pakistan.” But he did add a qualifier to that remark: “at least, not yet.”