Numbers Matter | Why the current outbreak in Hong Kong is unlike any other

With the average daily deaths much higher than ever seen since the beginning of the pandemic, there are lessons for countries on their approach to fighting the virus

The surge of Covid-19 infections in Hong Kong and China in the past few weeks has dominated headlines the world over. A closer look at the numbers emerging out of the recent wave in Hong Kong, in particular, paints a picture that is incredibly grim, with the financial hub having earned the distinction of being the most fatal outbreak ever recorded in the two years of the global pandemic, and the situation is still deteriorating.

When seen against Hong Kong’s population of 7.5 million, Tuesday’s statistics mean 30.4 deaths per million, while Monday’s 249 deaths come out to a whopping 33 deaths for every million residents. (Bloomberg)

In the week leading to Tuesday, an average of 37.6 people lost their lives to the viral disease every day for every million residents in the island state, according to statistics compiled by Our World in Data.

Before this, the worst that this number had ever touched in any country in the world was when an average of 28.7 people were dying for every million residents in Belgium for the week ended April 16, 2020. This means that in the current situation, Hong Kong is already seeing 30% more deaths on a daily basis than the most brutal outbreak ever recorded in the world.

Another factor that makes the numbers from Hong Kong in the past week even more alarming is that, all countries that have come close to seeing as many deaths with respect to their populations, have done so in early 2020 — at the start of the pandemic, at a time when doctors were still learning how to deal with infections.

In Hong Kong, these many deaths mean that even the morgues are overflowing, forcing authorities to store bodies in refrigerated shipping containers.

As a result, infections in the Asian financial hub have surged to record highs with a total of about 733,000 cases and nearly 4,300 deaths — a majority of these being reported in just the past three weeks. Of the 4,279 reported deaths in Hong Kong, 4,000 have come in the latest wave.

On Tuesday, Hong Kong announced 27,765 new cases and 228 deaths. When seen against Hong Kong’s population of 7.5 million, Tuesday’s statistics mean 30.4 deaths per million, while Monday’s 249 deaths come out to a whopping 33 deaths for every million residents.

The fast-spreading Omicron variant of Sars-CoV-2 has tested Hong Kong’s resolve, with the region now suffering the consequences of a relatively low vaccination rate, especially among the elderly, as the virus ravages through the community.

According to official statistics, around 66% of its population over the age of 80 still remains unvaccinated against the viral disease.

What is a particular cause of concern is that these soaring death numbers have come despite the relative milder nature of the Omicron variant — known to lead to a considerably lower proportion of symptomatic and severe cases of the disease.

Despite the soaring numbers, the government of the former British territory insists that there is no need to introduce curbs on social mobility.

On Monday, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam said that there were no plans to tighten strict social distancing measures. "The government has to be very careful before tightening social distancing measures further... with the need to consider the mental health of citizens," she was reported as saying by Reuters.

The problem at hand for Hong Kong, if anything, serves as a warning sign for many governments across the world. It stresses the need for clear messaging around potential lockdown and testing measures, and a rigid vaccination programme, especially during an expanding outbreak. The local government has relied on copying mainland China's “dynamic zero” policy which seeks to curb all outbreaks as soon as they occur, instead of trying to live with the virus.

As such, few would find it surprising that an opaque top-down policy coupled with contradictory government messaging on social curbs and lockdowns was not particularly effective.

If the pandemic has taught us anything, it is the value of data. To help understand the battle against the pandemic, Jamie Mullick, HT’s Covid data whiz, writes Numbers Matter

The views expressed are personal