The changing landscape of Jammu and Kashmir politics
Regional parties like the National Conference and the Congress are banking on their alliance under the INDIA bloc to challenge the BJP’s dominance
Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) will hold its first state assembly election in over a decade in the backdrop of a dramatically changed political landscape in the region.
Separatist leaders who once called for election boycotts are now looking to participate, posing a tough challenge to mainstream leaders across various constituencies. The entry of five independent candidates backed by the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) — which has ended its 30-year election boycott — and separatist leaders, including popular cleric Sarjan Barkati, indicates a significant shift in the political dynamics.
In a recent public appearance, National Conference (NC) vice president Omar Abdullah accused the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of encouraging independent candidates to divide the vote. Urging people to remain cautious, he said, “Vested powers are backing numerous independent candidates in J&K, possibly as a strategy to divide the mandate. They are trying to silence secular voices… But the people of J&K will give a fitting reply.”
To keep the BJP out of power in Kashmir, the Congress and the NC — Kashmir's oldest regional party — are contesting the election jointly under the INDIA bloc banner. Meanwhile, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), whose coalition government with the BJP ended on June 19, 2018, is facing stiff challenges, particularly from former members of the banned JeI.
A powerless assembly?
Many political analysts and experts are describing the electoral process as a "futile" exercise. Even if regional parties manage to form a government, major power will remain in the hands of the Governor, who operates under New Delhi's directives.
On July 12, the Union home affairs ministry amended the Transaction of Business Rules, expanding the administrative powers of the Lieutenant Governor (LG) through an executive notification. Under the new rules, the LG now has final authority over All India Services and senior bureaucracy in the Union Territory. Key institutions like the Anti-Corruption Bureau, Directorate of Public Prosecutions, Prisons, and the Forensic Science Laboratory are placed under the LG's control.
The LG also has decision-making power over appointments of the Advocate General and other law officers. Additionally, the government must now seek the LG's approval for prosecution sanctions and filing appeals. The notification allows the LG to make rules with the “aid and advice of the Council of Ministers,” while the assembly can legislate on matters in the State List, excluding “Police” and “Public Order" and the Concurrent List
A professor at the Islamic University of Science and Technology Kashmir, who asked not to be named, said: “There is no doubt that the new assembly will not have enough power, or the LG will enjoy more authority than the chief minister. However, while the shadow chief minister is less powerful, the chief minister's presence is still important in the state to maintain some sort of balance in the administration."
He remarked that after the abrogation of Article 370, bureaucratic hegemony has emerged in Jammu and Kashmir, disrupting the relationship between the public and the government. To fill this vacuum, a less powerful assembly is more significant than having no assembly, as it would create balance in the administration, which has been missing in J&K since the abrogation of Article 370.
"People are eager to vote in this assembly election as they face serious concerns because bureaucrats don't consider themselves accountable to the people. In that sense, this election is very significant. I can't say it's a futile exercise," he added.
The political equation in North and South Kashmir
In south Kashmir, PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti's daughter, Iltija Mufti, is leading the party’s door-to-door campaign and making her political debut in the family stronghold of Bijbehara. Mehbooba has opted out of this election, citing the “reduced” powers of the legislative assembly in the Union Territory as a barrier to fulfilling her party's agenda, even if she were to become chief minister again.
Journalist and author Gowhar Geelani said the PDP’s alliance with the BJP in 2015 and 2016 were "political suicides." “Mufti’s defence of the 2016 civilian killings has left the party on shaky ground. It would take a miracle for the PDP to win more than 8 to 10 assembly seats,” Geelani said.
Mufti's appeal, especially among young women voters, could be a key advantage for the PDP in south Kashmir. However, the presence of a former Jamaat-e-Islami member running as an independent candidate could spoil the PDP's plans.
The participation of independent candidates backed by the JeI, particularly in Pulwama and Shopian, where the banned outfit has a strong base, could make the elections more competitive, and disrupt the traditional dominance of regional parties.
“In 1972, the JeI had its best electoral performance when it sent five legislators to the JK assembly, but after the Muslim United Front experiment of 1987, the landscape changed dramatically. Former JeI members contesting won’t cause a major shift in electoral arithmetic," Geelani added.
While many political leaders in Kashmir have welcomed former JeI members into the mainstream, CPI(M) leader Mohammed Yousuf Tarigami facing strong opposition from Sayar Ahmad Reshi, a former JeI member, said, “The Jamaat once considered voting in Kashmir 'haraam' (forbidden) —I don’t know how that has changed overnight.” In north Kashmir, Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference (PC) had the upper hand in the previous assembly election in 2014, but the rise of the AIP after the victory of its jailed president, Engineer Rashid, in the Lok Sabha elections has taken many by surprise. Rashid’s prolonged detention seems to have bolstered his party’s support base.
What could be a shot in the arm for AIP is Khursheed Ahmad Sheikh, Rashid’s brother, who is set to fight in the elections after retiring from the J&K government. Sheikh is expected to fight from the Langate assembly seat in north Kashmir, where Rashid contested in previous elections.
However, Geelani, while downplaying the likelihood of a repeat success for Rashid’s party, said, “The AIP has given tickets to former Congress leaders and new faces who don’t have a solid reputation among voters. It's unlikely the AIP will replicate its parliamentary success in the assembly polls.”
Will the INDIA bloc shake the BJP's hold on Jammu?
In Jammu, a BJP stronghold, the party is expected to secure the most seats despite the resignation of several key figures after the ticket distribution by the party's high command. The BJP’s former Jammu district president, Kashmira Singh and senior party leader, Chander Mohan Sharma, were among the BJP members who resigned.
Recent militant attacks in Jammu pose a significant challenge to the BJP's campaign. Rekha Chowdhary, author and former political science professor at Jammu University, ruled out any major electoral impact on the BJP’s poll prospects. “There is concern about the rising militant attacks in Jammu, but this is not an 'election issue' for the public. The attacks won't affect the political landscape here, though there’s been a shift in militant activity," she said.
Kanwal Singh, a policy analyst from Jammu with roots in Poonch, a region once ravaged by militancy in the 1990s expressed profound concern over the alarming resurgence of terrorism in the Jammu region. Singh said that the contemporary wave of violence represents a stark deviation from the relative calm of the past two decades.
“The recent uptick in terrorist activities, including the targeted killings in Katra, the IED blast, attacks on pilgrims in Reasi, and the targeted killings in Dhangri, signals a troubling shift that challenges the stability of the region. This new wave of terrorism not only jeopardises public safety but is poised to significantly influence the political landscape. With the ruling establishment facing mounting scrutiny over its handling of security, these incidents are likely to amplify voter anxiety, casting a shadow over upcoming elections," Singh said.
Since 2021, the Jammu region has witnessed 29 terrorist attacks on security forces, in which at least 51 security personnel and more than a dozen civilians have lost their lives and limited success in neutralising militants.
The BJP also faces internal challenges, as some rebel leaders are running as independents in key constituencies. Commenting on the BJP’s internal conflicts, Chowdhary said: “The BJP has plenty of problems. The party can’t accommodate all of its hopefuls, leading to rebel candidates. This could give the INDIA bloc an edge in some areas, although internal conflict exists within other parties as well."
Singh agreed that in constituencies like Marh, Akhnoor, Bahu, Jammu West, and RS Pura in the Jammu division, the Congress within the INDIA Alliance could have easily secured victories or, at the very least, mounted a formidable challenge. However, due to a glaring lack of coordination, the party has yet to announce candidates for these crucial seats. This oversight is poised to benefit the BJP, despite the strong wave of anti-incumbency working against them.
“While the BJP is grappling with internal divisions, granting ST status to Paharis was a clever move that has generated pro-BJP sentiment among that community. However, this has caused some resentment among Gujjars,” she added.
Meanwhile, the Congress’ poll prospects are beginning to look better after its massive defeat in the 2014 assembly elections. Its ally, NC will contest 51 seats, the Congress on 32 and the parties have agreed to have a “friendly but disciplined” contest on 5 seats.
“The exit of Ghulam Nabi Azad was a significant setback, but recent efforts have helped revive Congress’s standing, which could lead to a stronger performance this time,” Chowdhary said.
Mubashir Naik is an independent journalist based in Jammu and Kashmir
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