Assembly Elections 2017: Goa and Punjab setback for the AAP’s national ambitions
The results in Punjab and Goa show that the AAP has been unable to advance from the important beachhead it had secured in 2014.
This was meant to be the AAP’s break-out moment, but it was more a breakdown of its hopes. The results in Punjab show that the AAP has been unable to advance from the important beachhead it had secured in 2014. It has also failed to open its account in the small but promising state of Goa. This matters because AAP’s success requires it to take over the space presently occupied by the Congress. Success in Punjab and Goa would have generated momentum for the forthcoming elections in Delhi and Gujarat, but AAP now will have to defend itself in Delhi, and work all the harder to convince Gujaratis that, rather than the INC, it is the best alternative to the BJP.
Even so, it would be premature to write the AAP off. The party is a proven draw for the urban, educated, media-consuming middle classes that have an oversize influence on national political narratives. In 2013, it also secured the support of the urban poor, winning 30% of the vote, which it held on to during the 2014 Modi wave. In 2015, the AAP expanded into rural and minority-dominated areas of Delhi, demolishing the Congress and winning 54% of the vote.
Its 2014 success in Punjab proved that the AAP model of charismatic leadership, fresh candidates and modern campaign methods was scalable to a more rural setting. Only 38% of Punjab’s population is urban, although rural Punjab is considerably “rurban” – educated, prosperous and media consuming. As in Delhi, the AAP attracted young, urban, educated, middle-to-upper-class voters in Punjab, plus a section of Hindu and Dalit voters in the Malwa and Doaba regions along with sizeable numbers of voters of both the radical Left and Khalistani constituencies. With its “alternative” political message cutting across classes and castes (though still with an urban bias), the AAP secured 24% of the vote in 2014, won four of 13 Lok Sabha seats and until a few months ago, seemed set to become the leading Punjab party.
This momentum now stands halted. Although the AAP remains a major player in Punjab and won more seats than the ruling SAD-BJP alliance, the INC proved to be a much more attractive alternative, leaving the AAP exactly where it stood in 2014. Disappointment in Goa must be all the greater for it because 62% of the population is urban, while its vote share stands at less than 7%, up from a meagre 3.3% in 2014.
One lesson for the AAP is that while being a disruptor can be effective, there must be more substance in what you offer to the voter. Another is that your opponent will adapt. Not facing anti-incumbency, the lumbering Congress took to modern campaign methods in Punjab and Goa, and managed to build momentum around its core vote base.
To salvage itself, the AAP needs to win a big state. It has to defend its Delhi citadel in the forthcoming municipal elections, but its real test will now be in Gujarat where a weakened BJP looks like it could give ground in December 2017. The AAP is making a serious effort, with Arvind Kejriwal wooing Patidars, Dalits, OBCs and of course young, urban, educated voters in a state whose population is 43% urban, more so than even Punjab. The AAP may also have better luck with the Gujarati diaspora than it did with Punjab, but it still has to convince dissatisfied Gujaratis that it offers a feasible alternative.
Even though Gujarat has some of the ingredients that the AAP has worked magic with in the past, it will be a more arduous path for the party. It won no more than 2% of the vote there in 2014, compared with 33% for the Congress, and it’s not clear whether Gujarat’s conservative voters – long used to a two-party system – will accommodate a new party. And a partly successful AAP campaign runs the risk of simply dividing opposition votes and allowing the BJP to return.
The AAP’s strength is that it has demonstrated the ability to scale up its support across traditional political lines. But it will need more than a symbolic broom to sweep out the old – more patience, organisation, perhaps even some luck.
Amitabh Dubey is an analyst of politics and economic policy. The views expressed are personal.