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Rahul Bajoria
Articles by Rahul Bajoria

Manufacturing versus services: A false binary

India does not need to choose between manufacturing and services. India has the capacity and means to succeed in both manufacturing and services.

Global services exports account for only ~22% of total exports.. (AP)
Published on Feb 20, 2024 10:00 PM IST

Riding high on the growth momentum

The challenge for India is to sustain growth in the 7% range, or possibly aim higher at achieving 8% growth, without losing out on its hard-won macro stability

The resilience of the Indian economy in the face of slowing global growth points towards its greater ability to deal with the polycrises since the pandemic. (Getty Images/iStockphoto)
Published on Jan 10, 2024 10:14 PM IST

Time ripe for private sector capex push

Domestic financing for private investment may become easier as the government takes a backseat.

At this juncture, private-sector credit growth has started picking up again, indicating that some leverage is slowly being built up (HT PHOTO)
Published on Nov 14, 2023 11:54 PM IST

Focus on economy’s basics for 8% growth

There is no need to change India’s economic model to step up growth, aggressively deploying the existing advantages of the economy should do the job

The government needs to persist with fiscal consolidation, manage supply and demand side inflation, reduce red tape, and simplify processes. (PTI)
Published on Oct 11, 2023 10:13 PM IST

All quiet on the interest rate front

Should RBI use blunt instruments such as interest rates, or take comfort from softening core inflation? For now, it should be the latter

Onion traders from Nashik have decided not to hold auctioning at Lasalgaon and other markets in the district on Monday. (HT PHOTO)
Published on Aug 21, 2023 09:02 PM IST

Why RBI chose not to pivot to growth

Inflation may be dipping but medium-term outlook is cloudy. Most global central banks are not cutting rates. Why we may be in for a long pause in policy rates

 The answer from MPC on Thursday was decisively against a pivot(MINT)
Published on Jun 08, 2023 08:47 PM IST

Inflation is dipping, but RBI may not slash rates

Consumer inflation expectations have also declined compared with the recent past. But the central bank will be cautious in letting its guard down too

Inflation in perishables is beginning to inch up from seasonal effects (prices for fruits and vegetables typically rise during the summer months), while high fodder costs are keeping milk inflation elevated. (REUTERS)
Updated on May 18, 2023 09:44 PM IST

Another rate hike may be in the offing

If economic activity is sustained at an elevated level and pricing power is high, RBI has a longer runway to land its rate hikes. But this does not mean the bank will keep circling, lest the fuel in the economy runs out

In RBI’s industrial outlook survey, the cost of raw materials is no longer as big a drag. Within the services outlook survey, selling prices have risen and profit margins have widened after shrinking for a few quarters (MINT)
Published on Mar 09, 2023 07:07 AM IST
ByRahul Bajoria and Shreya Sodhani

What India may get from this budget

Despite the disruptions forced by the pandemic, the economy is in good shape. The budget may focus on improving the conditions for private investment, but will have to look at how to reduce the high-debt burden

The improvement in the tax-to-GDP ratio has helped in dealing with multiple shocks, ranging from welfare assistance to raising subsidies to managing food prices and increasing capital expenditure (Shutterstock)
Updated on Jan 19, 2023 08:10 AM IST
ByRahul Bajoria and Shreya Sodhani

On inflation in India, a silver lining of stability

India’s consumer price inflation is finally back within the band — registering a 5.9% year-on-year increase in November.

The bulk of the fall can be attributed to perishable items such as vegetables, but there are also signs of stability coming back in staples such as cereals and pulses. (Bloomberg)
Published on Dec 19, 2022 08:29 PM IST

Prune some schemes to manage the fiscal deficit

While it is unlikely that the programmes will be completely shelved 18 months away from general elections, we believe it is important to understand what the sunset strategy will be for temporary support programmes.

Data shows almost 800 million have benefitted from PMGKAY. This covers almost 60% of the population, and with focused targeting, the scheme could be scaled back to support 40% (Diwakar Prasad/HT PHOTO)
Updated on Nov 30, 2022 08:33 PM IST
ByRahul Bajoria

India’s economy is on a strong wicket

It is possible to maintain average real GDP growth of about 6.5% for the next three years. However, it is important to recognise the limitations on how fiscal or monetary policy can be used to mitigate global shocks, whether in energy prices or capital outflows

The economy’s resilience was supported by a counter-cyclical fiscal policy, which bore the brunt of rising fertiliser and fuel costs, but the monetary and exchange rate policy provided ‘covering fire’ (Shutterstock)
Updated on Sep 12, 2022 07:41 PM IST
ByRahul Bajoria

India is equipped to deal with currency volatility

On the value itself, foreign exchange markets are prone to overshoot, but even if they do so, they will correct in the near-term

While the focus remains on the US dollar, it is worth pointing out that against other major currencies, including the euro, yen, and sterling, the rupee has strengthened, not weakened, this year (Shutterstock)
Updated on Jul 14, 2022 09:51 PM IST
ByRahul Bajoria

RBI shows resilience in the face of shocks

With the central bank saying it’s focused on fighting inflation, the predictability of its policy actions is restored

RBI will have to continue to deftly manage its responsibilities of being the debt manager of the government, even as it strives to bolster its inflation fighting credibility (ANI)
Updated on Jun 09, 2022 08:47 PM IST
ByRahul Bajoria
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