Roshan Kishore

Roshan Kishore is the Data and Political Economy Editor at Hindustan Times. His weekly column for HT Premium Terms of Trade appears every Friday.

Articles by Roshan Kishore

Terms of Trade | Crony capitalism & politics: Narrative is stronger than facts

One of the reasons the Congress's crony capitalism attack does not work against the BJP is that the latter has been able to portray its government's incentives to big business as an act in larger national interest.

The Opposition could have argued that the government should have set up its own enterprises — if need be in collaboration with foreign companies — rather than subsidising Indian business houses such as Vedanta. (ANI)
The Opposition could have argued that the government should have set up its own enterprises — if need be in collaboration with foreign companies — rather than subsidising Indian business houses such as Vedanta. (ANI)
Updated on Sep 23, 2022 05:22 PM IST

Why Old Pension Scheme is bad politics, bad economics

The New Pension Scheme (NPS) – it was first implemented by the Centre in 2004 and 27 states have shifted to it since then – does not even come close in terms of future earnings to the OPS.

The New Pension Scheme (NPS) – it was first implemented by the Centre in 2004 and 27 states have shifted to it since then.(Representative image)
The New Pension Scheme (NPS) – it was first implemented by the Centre in 2004 and 27 states have shifted to it since then.(Representative image)
Updated on Sep 21, 2022 12:23 PM IST
ByRoshan Kishore and Abhishek Jha, Hindustan Times, New Delhi

Terms of Trade | India’s perverse federal economic competition

The controversy over Vedanta-Foxconn project moving to Gujarat and an embattled Hemant Soren passing the 1932 domicile threshold in Jharkhand are examples

In Maharashtra, the ruling NDA has been facing attacks from the opposition over the proposed Vedanta-Foxconn semiconductor plant moving from Maharashtra to Gujarat. (HT Archive)
In Maharashtra, the ruling NDA has been facing attacks from the opposition over the proposed Vedanta-Foxconn semiconductor plant moving from Maharashtra to Gujarat. (HT Archive)
Published on Sep 16, 2022 06:35 PM IST

Number theory: Making sense of India’s inflation numbers

The government released both retail and wholesale inflation numbers for the month of August this week.

HT Photo (Representative Image)
HT Photo (Representative Image)
Updated on Sep 15, 2022 01:27 PM IST
By, New Delhi

WPI eases to 11-month low of 12.4%

Significantly, what makes the latest WPI numbers more important is that they also suggest a sequential moderation in prices and not just a deceleration in the rate of increase compared to the previous year.

Representational image
Representational image
Updated on Sep 15, 2022 05:34 AM IST
By, New Delhi

Terms of Trade | Bharat Jodo vs Make India #1: The race for No.2 position begins

One can describe this as the beginning of the contest for the principal opposition party in the 2024 elections. Here’s why.

The more difficult question to answer is which party will finish as the number two? (Sanjeev Verma/AAP Media)
The more difficult question to answer is which party will finish as the number two? (Sanjeev Verma/AAP Media)
Published on Sep 09, 2022 01:39 PM IST

Number Theory: The festival season has begun, what does the economy look like?

The festive season is an extremely important part of the fiscal year for the Indian economy as consumers are expected to spend more money on non-durables such as clothing and durables such as household appliances and vehicles.

An artisan clays an idol of the Hindu Goddess Durga at a workshop ahead of Durga Puja festival in New Delhi (AFP)
An artisan clays an idol of the Hindu Goddess Durga at a workshop ahead of Durga Puja festival in New Delhi (AFP)
Updated on Sep 08, 2022 12:00 PM IST

Number Theory: Behind the systemic roots of urban flooding in India

The fact that such instances are spreading to more cities and happening with greater frequency, suggests that something is broken in our response to such events.

Residents of a waterlogged locality try to reach a safer place with making sit their children in a fridge following heavy rains, in Bengaluru on Tuesday (ANI)
Residents of a waterlogged locality try to reach a safer place with making sit their children in a fridge following heavy rains, in Bengaluru on Tuesday (ANI)
Updated on Sep 07, 2022 10:36 AM IST

Number Theory: Fine print of India’s fifth largest economy status

A historical look at the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) database shows that the Indian economy has made rapid gains in terms of global GDP ranking in the past decade and half.

The latest change in rankings is based on quarterly GDP numbers in current dollars for the period ending December 2021.(Pradeep Gaur/Mint)
The latest change in rankings is based on quarterly GDP numbers in current dollars for the period ending December 2021.(Pradeep Gaur/Mint)
Updated on Sep 06, 2022 10:24 AM IST

Three charts which explain the state of the Indian economy

Are the June 2022 GDP numbers good or bad? What do they mean for economic growth over the rest of the fiscal year? What is the current state of economic momentum in the Indian economy? What about the nature of economic recovery?

 (Bloomberg)
(Bloomberg)
Updated on Sep 02, 2022 02:25 PM IST

GDP grows 13.5% in Q1, less than RBI prediction

India’s GDP grew at 13.5% in the quarter ending June 2022, much lower than the 16.2% forecast by the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and the 15.5% projection by a Bloomberg poll of economists.

 (PTI)
(PTI)
Updated on Sep 01, 2022 12:28 AM IST
ByRoshan Kishore & Rajeev Jayaswal, New Delhi

Terms of Trade | Abhijit Sen: The equal opportunity dissenter

His life and work are an inspiration that the best controversies are those driven by objective intellectual dissent rather than an agenda which is driven by dogma.

When in university, it was his intellect rather than the position of a Planning Commission member which mesmerized everyone. (Mint Photo)
When in university, it was his intellect rather than the position of a Planning Commission member which mesmerized everyone. (Mint Photo)
Published on Aug 31, 2022 03:08 PM IST

Terms of Trade | India’s payment revolution is a statistical gold mine. Tap it

The technological revolution in the payment system space has produced precious data. From the average size of business enterprises to migration patterns and financial flows, it can help draw an intricate picture of the Indian economy

There is every reason to believe that using traditional data sources with the money trail generated by the payment revolution will make things better. (Shutterstock)
There is every reason to believe that using traditional data sources with the money trail generated by the payment revolution will make things better. (Shutterstock)
Published on Aug 26, 2022 07:09 PM IST

Ghulam Nabi Azad resignation: A look at HT’s coverage over the years

HT’s data and political economy team has covered the issues raised by Azad over the years. Here is a brief recap of some of our coverage

Rahul Gandhi had a promising start to his tenure as the Congress president which came after the Congress giving a close fight to the BJP in Gujarat 2017 and winning Rajasthan Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh elections in 2018. (PTI Photo)
Rahul Gandhi had a promising start to his tenure as the Congress president which came after the Congress giving a close fight to the BJP in Gujarat 2017 and winning Rajasthan Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh elections in 2018. (PTI Photo)
Updated on Aug 26, 2022 01:59 PM IST

Number Theory: Has the Congress jumped the gun on its Bharat Jodo Yatra?

The Yatra, which is supposed to cover more than 3500 km, is scheduled to start on September 7 and expected to continue for around 150 days, which tentatively puts its completion around the first week of February next.

Congress leaders Jairam Ramesh and Digvijaya Singh release logo of their 'Bharat Jodo Yatra' which will begin on 7th September.(ANI Photo)
Congress leaders Jairam Ramesh and Digvijaya Singh release logo of their 'Bharat Jodo Yatra' which will begin on 7th September.(ANI Photo)
Updated on Aug 24, 2022 07:25 PM IST
By, Hindustan Times, New Delhi

Terms of Trade | The X factor in 2024

Oil, not Mandal, will be the biggest factor shaping the 2024 outcome. The international economic climate will have profound consequences on domestic politics

Will oil prices stay above or below the $100 mark between now and the 2024 elections? (Reuters)
Will oil prices stay above or below the $100 mark between now and the 2024 elections? (Reuters)
Updated on Aug 20, 2022 10:59 AM IST

Number theory: Four charts which explain inflation and its economic impact

The four charts explain in detail the larger macroeconomic takeaway from the July data for both Consumer Price Index a(CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI).

Representative Image
Representative Image
Updated on Aug 17, 2022 02:40 PM IST

Inflation down, growth up. What stagflation?

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could sill raise interest rates going forward as the headline inflation number continues to stay above the 6% threshold of the central bank for the seventh consecutive month.

India’s benchmark inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew at 6.7% on an annual basis in the month of July.(HT)
India’s benchmark inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew at 6.7% on an annual basis in the month of July.(HT)
Updated on Aug 13, 2022 06:12 AM IST
By, New Delhi

Terms of Trade | The tale of Nitish Kumar and his palace coups

Nitish Kumar’s politics challenges established notions of a Mandal-Kamandal binary

Nitish Kumar. (PTI)
Nitish Kumar. (PTI)
Published on Aug 12, 2022 06:16 PM IST

India’s economy recovery steadies, but remains K-shaped

What is the state of the Indian economy at the moment? When the National Statistical Office (NSO) releases GDP statistics for the June quarter at the end of this month, the picture will become clearer.

 (AFP)
(AFP)
Updated on Aug 12, 2022 01:44 PM IST
By, New Delhi

Nitish Kumar and Bihar’s oscillating political landscape

This is the third time Kumar has switched sides between the forces of Mandal (RJD) and Kamandal (BJP) in the state to remain in power. Given Kumar’s past promiscuity how does the JD (U) even manage to make such shifts?

Since the 1995 assembly elections, the JD (U), BJP and the RJD combined have always had a more than two-third seat share in every assembly or Lok Sabha election in the state. (HT Photo)
Since the 1995 assembly elections, the JD (U), BJP and the RJD combined have always had a more than two-third seat share in every assembly or Lok Sabha election in the state. (HT Photo)
Updated on Aug 10, 2022 03:26 PM IST
ByRoshan Kishore and Abhishek Jha

Cautious RBI raises policy rate by 50bps

The increase, which takes the policy rate to 5.4%, a level last seen in August 2019, will increase borrowing costs for companies, make home loans expensive, and possibly crimp demand.

Cautious RBI raises policy rate by 50bps. (AFP)
Cautious RBI raises policy rate by 50bps. (AFP)
Updated on Aug 06, 2022 12:39 AM IST
By, New Delhi

Terms of Trade | What should the next big economic debate for India@75 be?

At the risk of romanticising the past, one can argue that the first five decades of independence saw a fat more vibrant debate on economic issues than the period after that. So, where will the next big political economy idea come from?

If there is one economic question which has not received adequate engagement by the political class in the post-reform period in India it is how to tilt income distribution in favour of the “have-nots” without fiscal policy intervention. (Reuters)
If there is one economic question which has not received adequate engagement by the political class in the post-reform period in India it is how to tilt income distribution in favour of the “have-nots” without fiscal policy intervention. (Reuters)
Updated on Aug 05, 2022 02:09 PM IST

RBI monetary policy: Repo rate hiked by 50 bps; third consecutive rise

RBI increasing interest rates was widely expected and a Bloomberg forecast of economists had correctly predicted the 50 basis point interest rate hike

The MPC decision comes in the wake of some easing in inflation numbers in the month of May and June. (File image)
The MPC decision comes in the wake of some easing in inflation numbers in the month of May and June. (File image)
Updated on Aug 05, 2022 11:29 AM IST

Number theory | The Indian economy is three economies combined into one

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of RBI began its bimonthly meeting on August 3. One of the most awaited takeaways from the meeting will be the MPC’s GDP growth projection, which will be released in the MPC resolution on August 5.

 (AFP)
(AFP)
Updated on Aug 04, 2022 01:34 AM IST

Terms of Trade | Political finance: Can plunderers fight plutocrats?

While it is nobody’s case that all cases of financial malfeasance against opposition leaders are true, there is an element of truth to the claim that the BJP has been able to subvert political partisanship against it by political weaponisation of investigation into financial wrongdoings

Cash recovered by ED officials from the residence of Arpita Mukherjee, a close aide of West Bengal Minister Partha Chatterjee. (PTI)
Cash recovered by ED officials from the residence of Arpita Mukherjee, a close aide of West Bengal Minister Partha Chatterjee. (PTI)
Updated on Jul 29, 2022 09:14 PM IST

Number Theory | Three indicators of economic sentiment in the Indian economy

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India will hold its next bimonthly meeting exactly a week from now. The environment in which MPC will hold its next meeting is, in many ways, very different from what was the case when it last met in June.

 (AFP)
(AFP)
Updated on Jul 27, 2022 11:51 AM IST

Terms of Trade | It’s time to revisit Malthus, Marx and Keynes

Weaving in the ideas of the three is the only way to ensure food security in the world

The question to ask amidst all this is will the world be able to produce enough food to feed its people? (AFP)
The question to ask amidst all this is will the world be able to produce enough food to feed its people? (AFP)
Published on Jul 22, 2022 07:58 PM IST

Number Theory: Comparing Droupadi Murmu’s win with her predecessors

The elections for the President were held on July 18. According to the results, Murmu has secured 676,803 out of the 1,056,980 valid votes (in terms of value) which were polled.

In the round where votes from legislative assemblies were counted Murmu’s lead over Sinha was 64,226 votes.(AP Photo)
In the round where votes from legislative assemblies were counted Murmu’s lead over Sinha was 64,226 votes.(AP Photo)
Updated on Jul 22, 2022 12:13 PM IST
By, Hindustan Times, New Delhi

Is crude, edible oil inflation relief on the cards for India?

The fuel and energy basket sub-component has a share of 6.84% in the CPI basket. For oil and fats (edible oil) sub-category, this share is 3.56%. A simple calculation using the weighted share of these two sub-components shows that they have been a key driver of headline inflation in the past few months.

For oil and fats (edible oil) sub-category, this share is 3.56%.(Bloomberg file photo)
For oil and fats (edible oil) sub-category, this share is 3.56%.(Bloomberg file photo)
Updated on Jul 19, 2022 12:46 PM IST
By, Hindustan Times, New Delhi
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