News / Author / Roshan Kishore

Roshan Kishore

Roshan Kishore is the Data and Political Economy Editor at Hindustan Times. His weekly column for HT Premium Terms of Trade appears every Friday.

Articles by Roshan Kishore

Retail inflation at 5-year-high, vegetables 60% expensive; to hurt economic recovery

To put the 7.35% number in context, India’s nominal GDP is expected to grow at 7.5% in 2019-20. This means nominal incomes can be expected to rise by 7.5%, which means most Indians are already feeling the pinch of the price rise.

The spike was caused by food prices, which account for almost 40% of the typical Indian household’s budget, and grew at 14% in the month of December.(Abhijit Bhatlekar/Mint File Photo)

india news

Updated on Jan 14, 2020 09:22 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore and Rajeev Jayaswal

Retail inflation at 5-yr high, crosses RBI’s comfort zone on soaring food prices

Core inflation – the non-food non-fuel component of CPI basket – has also increased marginally after declining for four consecutive months, even as the headline numbers were rising.

Blaming vegetable, meat and fish prices for the high food inflation, CARE Ratings Ltd chief economist Madan Sabnavis said that inflation should come down in January with the new onion crop in and prices moving down. (HT photo)

business

Updated on Jan 13, 2020 06:45 PM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore & Rajeev Jayaswal

Factory output recovers in November, expands by 1.8%

A usage-wise break up of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) shows that the growth was driven by intermediate goods and consumer goods while primary goods, infrastructure goods and capital goods continued to contract in November.

The number underlines the signs of some sort of recovery in industrial activity(Ramesh Pathania /HT File Photo)

business

Updated on Jan 11, 2020 06:46 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

India headed for a slow economic recovery: World Bank

The latest projections involve a significant downgrade from the June 2019 forecasts, which expected the Indian economy to grow at 7.5% or more in the next three years.

The World Bank projections, if they turn out to be true, also mean that the government’s own assumptions about future growth in India may be exaggerated.(AP File Photo)

business

Updated on Jan 10, 2020 08:37 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Only 1% verbal complaints filed as FIRs between 2016-18; 60% written: NCRB

Crimes against women, senior citizens and children increased faster than other IPC crimes between 2016-2018.

The NCRB report also shows that in 2018 crimes against Dalits (excluding IPC crimes where Prevention of Atrocities Act was not applied) decreased for the first time in three years (absolute values) since 2016.(HT File)

india news

Updated on Jan 09, 2020 12:45 PM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Fall in cases registered over illegal immigration: NCRB data

To be sure, this does not reflect on whether or not illegal immigration into India -- a controversial subject right now -- has increased or decreased.

The government informed Parliament in December 2019 that 289 declared foreigners were detained in Assam in 2019 and that 129,009 persons were declared as foreigners by the Foreigners Tribunals in Assam as of October 2019.(Sanchit Khanna/HT PHOTO)

india news

Updated on Jan 09, 2020 10:36 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore and Neeraj Chauhan

GDP expected to grow at 11-year low

The forecast is even more worrying on the revenue collection front, as nominal GDP growth is expected to fall to 7.5%, the lowest since FY76.

The projected growth for FY20 is the lowest since FY09, when GDP growth plummeted to 3.1% amidst turbulence because of the 2008 global financial crisis.(Bloomberg file photo)

india news

Updated on Jan 08, 2020 05:13 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

What JNU violence tells us about today’s India | Opinion

Sunday’s treatment of JNU students is proof that we are living in an age where ideological differences in places of learning will be crushed with brute force.

Police personnel deployed outside Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) after violence erupted inside the campus, in New Delhi, on Sunday.(Amal KS/ HT Photo)

opinion

Updated on Aug 19, 2020 02:06 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Unrest in West Asia can be a double whammy for the Indian economy | Analysis

International crude oil prices could see an increase due to a rise in conflict in the region in case of an armed conflict in West Asia following the killing of a top Iranian commander in a US airstrike on Friday.

U.S. Marines with 2nd Battalion, 7th Marines, assigned to the Special Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force-Crisis Response-Central Command (SPMAGTF-CR-CC) 19.2, reinforce the U.S. Embassy Compound in Baghdad, Iraq, January 2, 2020.(via REUTERS)

india news

Updated on Jan 03, 2020 01:38 PM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Early data hints green shoots in Indian economy. Has it bottomed out?

RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its December meeting expected GDP growth to start recovering in the second half of the current fiscal year.

Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections were above Rs 1 lakh crore for the second consecutive month in December. (Representative Image)(REUTERS)

india news

Updated on Jan 03, 2020 12:01 AM IST

New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore and Rajeev Jayaswal

Lower revenue this year, but higher growth ahead: Finance ministry

Union finance ministry’s report assumes higher nominal growth than IMF forecasts up to 2024-25.

Along with the details of proposed investment projects, the Union finance ministry report also gives estimates of India’s nominal GDP from 2019-20 to 2024-25.(Pradeep Gaur/Mint)

india news

Updated on Jan 02, 2020 08:28 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Strain over growth, federalism, reform

Whether or not the economy can handle the tensions between maintaining growth, fiscal federalism and reforms — both those already rolled out and the ones being contemplated — will be the most important economic question of 2020.

As the Indian economy heads into 2020, the biggest question it faces is still about 2019.(ILLUSTRATION: MOHIT SUneja)

india news

Updated on Jan 01, 2020 03:03 AM IST

Hindustan Times | ByRoshan Kishore

Firefighting on economy front

Inadequate revival in consumption and stagnant investment have hit India’s economy hard.

The Indian economy has lost growth momentum for six consecutive quarters up to September 2019.(ILLUSTRATION: MOHIT SUNEJA)

india news

Updated on Dec 31, 2019 06:19 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Decoding Indian economy 2010-19: From external to domestic shocks

The challenges facing the economy have transformed drastically in less than ten years. India has ended up with a demand-side problem within less than a decade of supply-side bottlenecks bringing down growth and pushing up inflation.

Migrant labourers sit on a handcart as they wait for work at a wholesale market in the old quarters of Delhi.(Photo: Reuters)

india news

Updated on Dec 28, 2019 01:26 PM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Decoding vote: How the BJP lost Jharkhand

The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) led alliance has secured a clear majority in the Jharkhand assembly. The JMM has recorded its best ever performance and emerged as the single largest party with 29 MLAs.

india news

Updated on Dec 24, 2019 12:32 PM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Not inflation or fiscal numbers, policy should focus on demand boost

Many will see an increase in inflation numbers as a vindication of the RBI’s decision. There is also talk of the Indian economy entering a period of stagflation – low growth, high inflation – phase.

There is good reason to believe that taking either route would be counter- productive to the Indian economy at the current juncture.(Bloomberg file photo)

india news

Updated on Dec 22, 2019 12:54 PM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Tribal vote to local issues: Key factors that may sway Jharkhand results

Will the state stick to this trend or elect a clear winner this time? Three important factors will decide this to a large extent.

Long queues at a polling booth in Mandar assembly seat during the second phase of Jharkhand Assembly Election, Dec 7, 2019.(HT Photo)

elections

Updated on Dec 11, 2019 08:24 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

RBI holds rate,slashes growth forecast to 5%

MPC has brought down its projected GDP growth rate for the Indian economy in the current fiscal year to 5%, 1.1 percentage points less than what it projected in its October meeting.

Indian daily wage laborers and construction workers wait to get hired on the outskirts of New Delhi, India. India's economy, once one of the fastest growing in the world, is braking in a blow to the labor-intensive manufacturing sector. Growth slipped to 5% in the April-June quarter, the slowest pace in six years, and many economists believe that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's signature economic policies are at least partly to blame.(AP)

india news

Updated on Dec 06, 2019 01:34 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore and Rajeev Jayaswal

In Jharkhand, the poverty of better governance

The Bokaro Steel Plant isn’t doing well, and so both Bokaro Thermal and Bokaro Steel, once posh industrial towns, are almost in ruins today.

The state-owned companies that once drove the region’s economy, providing jobs, and, more importantly, education and health infrastructure in the townships, hire few people in permanent positions.(HT File)

elections

Updated on Dec 04, 2019 08:12 AM IST

Hindustan Times, Ranchi/Simdega/Bokaro | ByRoshan Kishore

India’s GDP growth falls to 4.5%, lowest in 6 years

The latest numbers mark the longest continuous deceleration in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, which has been slowing for six straight quarters.

GDP growth is 50 basis points lower than what it was in the April-June quarter. One basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. Both figures are the lowest since March 2013, when GDP growth plummeted to 4.3%.(PTI)

india news

Updated on Nov 30, 2019 01:37 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore and Rajeev Jayaswal

NRC may emerge as big fault line in 2021 Bengal election

A comparison of vote shares in these three ACs for 2016 assembly elections, 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the current bypolls reveals what could be an important development in the ongoing churn in the state’s politics.

The BJP’s decision of implementing National Register of Citizens (NRC) across the country is bound to have had a polarising impact in these regions, especially with Mamata Banerjee announcing that she would not allow NRC in the state.(ANI)

india news

Updated on Nov 30, 2019 05:53 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Engineering, management studies losing steam: Data

The NSO released its report “Key Indicators of Household Social Consumption on Education in India” last week. The report is based on a survey conducted between July 2017 and June 2018.

Engineering, information technology and management; the most sought after professional courses seem to be losing their popularity among students in India.(HT Photo)

india news

Updated on Nov 26, 2019 02:15 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Consumption expenditure survey: Government to scrap report over bad data

On Friday, Business Standard released leaked findings from the 2017-18 CES which showed that inflation-adjusted average monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE) declined by 3.7% in the country between 2011-12 and 2017-18, a first in four decades.

A worker sleeps on sacks of onions at the Vashi Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) wholesale market in Mumbai.(Bloomberg)

india news

Updated on Nov 16, 2019 01:26 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

How temple movement helped BJP

The demolition of the Babri mosque was a game changer in India’s politics. How did it help the BJP, though? It is instructive to look at the BJP’s electoral performance, especially vis-à-vis the Congress, which it has now replaced as the national political hegemon.

A general view of Ayodhya is seen after Supreme Court's verdict on a disputed religious site, India, November 10, 2019. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui(Reuters)

india news

Updated on Nov 15, 2019 05:38 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Costlier onion may have added to growth slump

As overall incomes take a hit during a slowdown, an average worker is likely to spend less on non-essentials. What happens if food prices rise drastically at a time when incomes are already facing a squeeze due to a slowdown?

A worker holds onions at the Vashi Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) wholesale market in Mumbai, India.(Photo: Bloomberg)

india news

Published on Nov 14, 2019 03:46 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Retail inflation at 16-month high as food prices soar

Retail food inflation in October was 7.9%, the highest since August 2016. Retail inflation, excluding the food and beverages sub-group grew at just 2.7% in October.

A worker sorts onions at a wholesale vegetable market in Chandigarh, India.(REUTERS)

business

Published on Nov 14, 2019 12:56 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

What the Index of Industrial Production numbers mean for economy

With Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth turning negative, it is reasonable to expect that the industry component of Gross Value Added (GVA) will grow at a much slower pace in the September quarter than what it did in the June quarter.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has contracted for two consecutive months now.(Bloomberg File Photo)

india news

Updated on Nov 13, 2019 07:58 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore and Vineet Sachdev

Performance of state’s justice system not just determined by its resources

A budget crunch isn’t the only impediment to justice delivery. One must look at other social and historical inequities that persist and address them simultaneously.

An inside view of the Tihar Jail, New Delhi. The India Justice Report 2019 gives state-wise rankings on various performance indicators of the four pillars: police, prisons, judiciary and legal aid(HT File Photo)

india news

Updated on Nov 09, 2019 08:59 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Over 11,000 suicides in agriculture sector in 2016: NCRB data adds to distress debate

While many people believed that farmer suicides were the most macabre manifestation of the agrarian crisis in India, there was (and is) another view which that farmer suicides were not necessarily a result of economic distress.

A water vessel sits on farmland near the village of Khardewadi in this aerial photograph taken in Beed district, Maharashtra.(Bloomberg File Photo / Used for representational purpose only)

india news

Updated on Nov 09, 2019 08:40 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

Farm fires, onion prices expose fault lines in agriculture

If crops are harvested by human labour, which is what is still widely prevalent in poorer states such as these, there is no crop residue left to be disposed of.

A farmer burns paddy stubble at Chismani village on the outskirts of Sonipat in Haryana.(Raj K Raj/HT file)

india news

Updated on Nov 08, 2019 07:41 AM IST

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | ByRoshan Kishore

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Roshan Kishore

Roshan Kishore is the Data and Political Economy Editor at Hindustan Times. His weekly column for HT Premium Terms of Trade appears every Friday.

To put the 7.35% number in context, India’s nominal GDP is expected to grow at 7.5% in 2019-20. This means nominal incomes can be expected to rise by 7.5%, which means most Indians are already feeling the pinch of the price rise.

Core inflation – the non-food non-fuel component of CPI basket – has also increased marginally after declining for four consecutive months, even as the headline numbers were rising.

A usage-wise break up of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) shows that the growth was driven by intermediate goods and consumer goods while primary goods, infrastructure goods and capital goods continued to contract in November.

The latest projections involve a significant downgrade from the June 2019 forecasts, which expected the Indian economy to grow at 7.5% or more in the next three years.

Crimes against women, senior citizens and children increased faster than other IPC crimes between 2016-2018.

To be sure, this does not reflect on whether or not illegal immigration into India -- a controversial subject right now -- has increased or decreased.

The forecast is even more worrying on the revenue collection front, as nominal GDP growth is expected to fall to 7.5%, the lowest since FY76.

Sunday’s treatment of JNU students is proof that we are living in an age where ideological differences in places of learning will be crushed with brute force.

International crude oil prices could see an increase due to a rise in conflict in the region in case of an armed conflict in West Asia following the killing of a top Iranian commander in a US airstrike on Friday.

RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its December meeting expected GDP growth to start recovering in the second half of the current fiscal year.

Union finance ministry’s report assumes higher nominal growth than IMF forecasts up to 2024-25.

Whether or not the economy can handle the tensions between maintaining growth, fiscal federalism and reforms — both those already rolled out and the ones being contemplated — will be the most important economic question of 2020.

Inadequate revival in consumption and stagnant investment have hit India’s economy hard.

The challenges facing the economy have transformed drastically in less than ten years. India has ended up with a demand-side problem within less than a decade of supply-side bottlenecks bringing down growth and pushing up inflation.

The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) led alliance has secured a clear majority in the Jharkhand assembly. The JMM has recorded its best ever performance and emerged as the single largest party with 29 MLAs.

Many will see an increase in inflation numbers as a vindication of the RBI’s decision. There is also talk of the Indian economy entering a period of stagflation – low growth, high inflation – phase.

Will the state stick to this trend or elect a clear winner this time? Three important factors will decide this to a large extent.

MPC has brought down its projected GDP growth rate for the Indian economy in the current fiscal year to 5%, 1.1 percentage points less than what it projected in its October meeting.

The Bokaro Steel Plant isn’t doing well, and so both Bokaro Thermal and Bokaro Steel, once posh industrial towns, are almost in ruins today.

The latest numbers mark the longest continuous deceleration in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, which has been slowing for six straight quarters.

A comparison of vote shares in these three ACs for 2016 assembly elections, 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the current bypolls reveals what could be an important development in the ongoing churn in the state’s politics.

The NSO released its report “Key Indicators of Household Social Consumption on Education in India” last week. The report is based on a survey conducted between July 2017 and June 2018.

On Friday, Business Standard released leaked findings from the 2017-18 CES which showed that inflation-adjusted average monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE) declined by 3.7% in the country between 2011-12 and 2017-18, a first in four decades.

The demolition of the Babri mosque was a game changer in India’s politics. How did it help the BJP, though? It is instructive to look at the BJP’s electoral performance, especially vis-à-vis the Congress, which it has now replaced as the national political hegemon.

As overall incomes take a hit during a slowdown, an average worker is likely to spend less on non-essentials. What happens if food prices rise drastically at a time when incomes are already facing a squeeze due to a slowdown?

Retail food inflation in October was 7.9%, the highest since August 2016. Retail inflation, excluding the food and beverages sub-group grew at just 2.7% in October.

With Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth turning negative, it is reasonable to expect that the industry component of Gross Value Added (GVA) will grow at a much slower pace in the September quarter than what it did in the June quarter.

A budget crunch isn’t the only impediment to justice delivery. One must look at other social and historical inequities that persist and address them simultaneously.

While many people believed that farmer suicides were the most macabre manifestation of the agrarian crisis in India, there was (and is) another view which that farmer suicides were not necessarily a result of economic distress.

If crops are harvested by human labour, which is what is still widely prevalent in poorer states such as these, there is no crop residue left to be disposed of.

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