Three things we know about the Delhi municipal poll results so far
A comparison with the 2017 MCD results shows that the BJP has actually managed to increase its vote share by a couple of percentage points while the AAP is at an increase of 16 percentage points so far
The counting for the 2022 Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) results is underway. As of 11.13am, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) were winning/leading in 132 and 106 wards respectively. The majority mark in the newly constituted MCD is 126.
HT’s data journalism team is running a live scraper for the results and here is what we know so far.
Have enough votes been counted to make the trends meaningful?
As of 11.13 am, 4,982,922 votes were counted. This was almost 67% of the 7,483,662 votes polled, going by the 51% voter turnout figure. So, the trends available so far are representative of almost two-thirds of the total votes polled.
Can the seat shares change drastically from here?
It is difficult to answer this conclusively because victory margins so far are extremely small in absolute terms – the median victory margin as of 11.13am was 1,795 votes – this cannot be ruled out.
But the BJP and AAP are very close in terms of vote share
As of 11.13am, the vote share of AAP and BJP was just three percentage points apart with the former at 42.3% and the latter at 39.3%. If one were to make a comparison with the 2020 assembly elections, the BJP increased its vote share by less than a percentage point, while the AAP saw a massive fall of 10 percentage points. A comparison with the 2017 MCD results shows that the BJP has actually managed to increase its vote share by a couple of percentage points while the AAP is at an increase of 16 percentage points so far. If these vote shares hold, one can say that the AAP has seen a fragmentation in its support base which explains the drop in its seat share compared to the 2020 assembly elections.