Two more exit polls give comfortable lead to BJP in Delhi

To be sure, exit polls are not always accurate, and previous elections have exposed discrepancies in their prediction.

Two more exit polls released on Thursday, a day after voting was held in Delhi’s fiercely contested elections, predicted a comfortable victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and signalled a significant decline in the Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) electoral fortunes in the Capital.

A polling staff carries electronic voting machines (EVM) to a strongroom after voting concluded on Wednesday (ANI)

Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya, both prominent pollsters, reinforced the projections from surveys that had been released on Wednesday, suggesting that the BJP is poised to end AAP’s dominance in Delhi after 27 years.

Axis My India forecasted that the BJP would secure between 45 and 55 seats in the 70-member assembly, with AAP’s tally dropping to 15-25. It projected a 48% vote share for the BJP and 42% for AAP. The Congress was estimated to get 0-1 seats with a 7% vote share.

Today’s Chanakya offered a similar outlook, predicting 45-57 seats for the BJP with a 49% vote share, while AAP was expected to manage 13-25 seats with 41% votes. The Congress was estimated to win 0-3 seats with a 10% vote share.

For the Congress, Today’s Chanakya anything between 0 to 3 seats with around 10% vote share.

To be sure, exit polls are not always accurate, and previous elections have exposed discrepancies in their predictions, particularly in diverse electorates like Delhi. Pollsters have faced scrutiny after miscalculating results in the Lok Sabha and several state assembly elections, including Haryana.

In 2020, AAP swept the elections with 62 seats and a 53.5% vote share, while the BJP won only eight seats with 38.5% of the votes. The Congress, which governed Delhi from 1998 to 2013, has failed to win a single seat in the last two assembly elections.

This election saw over a month of intense campaigning by AAP, BJP, and Congress, culminating in 60.54% voter turnout on Wednesday among Delhi’s 15.6 million electors.

A day earlier, all but two exit polls predicted that the BJP will either clinch an outright majority in the assembly of 70 seats or come tantalisingly close to it. All but three exit polls suggested that the party, which last won the assembly elections in the Capital in 1993, will make a convincing comeback and trounce the AAP in many of the latter’s strongholds.

In response, the AAP leadership dismissed the exit polls as “fake” and insisted it would return to power with a full majority.

Former Delhi chief minister and AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal claimed that the BJP was attempting to “poach” AAP candidates.

“In the last two hours, 16 of our candidates have received calls offering ₹15 crore each and ministerial positions if they switch to BJP. If they are getting more than 55 seats, why are they trying to break our candidates?” Kejriwal wrote on X.

Delhi BJP chief Virendra Sachdeva countered, claiming that the people had given a clear mandate for a “double-engine” government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“It was evident during the campaign that people were fed up with AAP’s lies, corruption, and negligence. They have placed their faith in PM Modi’s leadership, and the BJP will form the government in Delhi,” Sachdeva said.