BSP’s sixth successive electoral defeat puts question mark on its future
Bahujan Samaj Party fails to open its account in Uttar Pradesh, vote share shrinks from 19.42% in 2019 election to 9.39% in 2024
The Bahujan Samaj Party’s sixth successive electoral debacle and the victory of Azad Samaj Party (ASP) chief Chandra Shekhar Azad in the 2024 Lok Sabha election could speed up the end of BSP chief Mayawati dominance over Dalit politics in Uttar Pradesh.
The BSP lost power to the Samajwadi Party in the 2012 assembly polls. After winning no seat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections amid a Modi wave, it managed to bag 10 seats in 2019 after allying with the Samajwadi Party.
Mayawati decided to go solo in 2024, aiming to retain its Dalit vote base. She fielded 23 OBCs, 20 Muslims, 18 upper castes, 17 Dalits and a Sikh candidate but her party failed to open its account. Its vote share shrank from 19.42% in 2019 election to 9.39% in 2024.
This was quite a contrast since the days of the 2007 UP assembly election when the BSP polled 30.43% votes to form a government with a majority of its own.
In the 2012 assembly election, the BSP polled 25.95% votes to bag 80 seats. In the 2017 assembly election, the BSP secured 22.23% votes to win 19 seats and in the 2022 assembly election the vote percentage dipped to 12.88% and the BSP was able to win merely one seat.
In the 2004 Lok Sabha election, the BSP polled 24.67% votes to bag 19 seats. In the 2009 Lok Sabha election, it polled 27.42% vote to win 20 seats. Its vote percentage declined to 19.77% in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and the BSP failed to open its account. In 2019, the BSP polled 19.42% votes and won 10 seats when it was in alliance with the SP.
Now, the BSP has no member in the Lok Sabha and UP Legislative Council. It has a single member each in the Rajya Sabha and the U.P. Legislative Assembly.
The desertion of the Dalit vote base in successive elections, rebellion of senior party leaders as well as Mayawati’s failure to recapture power has put a question mark on her ability to infuse energy into the party.
The big victory of Chandra Shekhar Azad from the BSP stronghold Nagina has added to Mayawati’s woes. In the 2019 election, BSP candidate Girish Chandra Jatav had won the Nagina seat.
After Chandra Shekhar filed his nomination for ther Nagina seat, Mayawati sent her nephew Akash Anand to counter his challenge. Akash addressed a series of public meetings in Nagina as well as other constituencies in West UP. Amid the election, Mayawati abruptly removed Akash Anand as party national coordinator as well as her successor, shocking the party cadre. The party campaign slowed down when the election reached East UP, where the BSP had won six seats in 2019.
In Nagina, the BSP candidate Surendra Pal Singh was pushed to fourth position, indicating that the Jatav vote had shifted to the ASP. The rise of Chandra Shekhar is likely to dent the BSP vote base in the constituencies of West UP.
“Mayawati’s decision to go solo when the BJP, Congress and the SP stitched their own alliances caused demoralisation in the BSP camp. Except Shyam Singh Yadav, BSP MP from Jaunpur, the remaining nine sitting MPs defected to the SP or the the BJP. The BSP was left with no option but to field turncoats from other parties or party leaders who did not have experience of contesting polls. The election results also shows that BSP vote shifted to the Congress-SP alliance, he said.
When the rival parties were gearing up the cadre for the election with rallies and yatras, the BSP chief initially remained confined to holding meetings with party coordinators and was dependent on them for feedback to draw her strategy.
After poll schedule was declared, she launched her election campaign but it was confined to a few constituencies, Singh said.