Bypolls in Uttar Pradesh today: All eyes on three seats for larger political message
In Mainpuri, the SP campaign largely rests on invoking the name of Samajwadi Party founder Mulayam Singh Yadav, whose demise caused the bypoll in Mainpuri. The BJP, in response, has been eyeing dalit voters. The BSP is not contesting the bypolls.
An interesting political contest will unfold for three bypoll-bound seats in Uttar Pradesh on Monday and the outcome may have somewhat of a bearing on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, political experts say.
The Samajwadi Party campaign for the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat has been boosted by SP chief Akhilesh Yadav’s uncle Shivpal, often described as politically estranged in the past, campaigning for Akhilesh’s wife and party candidate Dimple in the party’s traditional constituency. On the other hand, the BJP is relying on the Dalit-Muslim-OBC outreach to make inroads in a constituency it has never won.
The SP campaign largely rests on invoking the name of Samajwadi Party founder Mulayam Singh Yadav, whose demise caused the bypoll in Mainpuri. The BJP, in response, has been eyeing dalit voters. The BSP is not contesting the bypolls.
Mainpuri Lok Sabha constituency, a SP citadel since 1996, has an estimated 3.4 lakh dalit voters. The BJP’s Braj region head Rajnikant Maheshwari said: “The BSP’s traditional voters are backing us. Our samarasta (social harmony) meets drew women including Jatavs (a dalit subcaste considered loyal to BSP).”
“The SP will win big as this election is our tribute to netaji,” Shivpal Yadav has been stating during the bypoll.
“With the BSP not contesting these bypolls, the role of Dalit voters will be crucial. In Mainpuri, OBC-Dalits hold the key. In Rampur, the BJP will hope to test the response of backward Muslims, whom it has tried to woo through Pasmanda meets, citing delivery of pro-poor schemes to all the poor sans any discrimination as its major achievement,” said Irshad Ilmi, a political observer.
Days before it announced Dimple Yadav as its Mainpuri candidate, the SP leadership had named Alok Shakya as its district unit chief to keep the second biggest OBC community in the region, after Yadavs, in good humour, political experts said.
The BJP having put up a former SP lawmaker Raghuraj Shakya as its candidate, has held ‘anusuchit jaati (dalit) meets’ featuring its Dalit leaders, including Union minister SP Baghel and UP minister Asim Arun. The SP got Bhim Army chief Chandrashekhar to campaigning in the bypoll-bound seats.
The Rampur Sadar assembly constituency has about 1.5 lakh Muslims, who make up for more than 50% of the total electorate. The BJP held ‘pasmanda (backward)’ Muslim meet there.
Barring once (1996), the seat has been with veteran SP leader Azam Khan and his clan since 1980.
Now, Azam Khan, who has won the seat 10 times, is backing his protégé Asim Raza on the SP ticket. The BJP has gone with known Azam baiter Akash Saxena, son of a former UP minister.
Reminded of how SP has dominated previous contests there, Saxena said, “In the June Lok Sabha bypoll that the BJP won, the party got about 13000 more votes in Rampur Sadar assembly (segment) than the SP candidate. This is enough to indicate that things are changing.” To make things difficult, even local Congress leaders like Nawab Kazim Ali Khan, have announced support for BJP.
After being disqualified as lawmaker following his conviction in a 2019 hate speech case, Azam Khan, for the first time,
is neither a contestant nor a voter.
Khatauli, yet another bypoll bound seat, was won by the BJP early this year. But the SP-RLD combine, which despite BJP’s sweep elsewhere in 2022 UP polls, did leave an impression in many west UP seats and is hopeful.
In Khatauli, a seat that BJP won twice in succession (2017, 2022), the voters have usually preferred to go with the ruling party.
In 2012, the seat was won by SP’s alliance partner RLD. In 2007, when BSP won the state elections, its party candidate won from Khatauli. This time, former BJP lawmaker Vikram Saini’s wife Rajkumari is contesting against Madan Bhaiya, the RLD-SP candidate.
The Rampur Sadar assembly constituency has about 1.5 lakh Muslims, who make up for over 50% of total voters. BJP held ‘pasmanda’ Muslim meet there.
