Crucial for BSP, LS polls will decide future of Dalit politics in U.P.
BSP goes solo in 2024 UP election, aiming to consolidate Dalit support despite declining votes. Mayawati faces challenge from rivals in three-cornered contest.
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has set the pitch for the three-cornered contest in Uttar Pradesh after party chief Mayawati decided to go solo in the 2024 general election. Rival parties attacked the BSP terming it a ‘vote katwa’ (one who divides votes) in the fight between BJP-led NDA and SP-lead INDIA bloc.
However, for the BSP it is a crucial election that will determine the future of Dalit politics in Uttar Pradesh. The support base as well as votes of the BSP have been shrinking post 2007 U.P. assembly election when it had formed majority government in the state.
From 30.43% in 2007, the BSP’s vote share declined to 12.88% in 2022 assembly election. Yet, it remains a force to reckon with in U.P. politics due to the unstinted support of the Jatav community that constitutes largest chunk of 23% Dalit voters in the state.
It remains to be seen whether the BSP with Dalit support be able to consolidate its position this time or the BJP, which made inroad into the Dalit vote base in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, will succeed in breaching the last BSP fort by winning the support of the Jatav community to consolidate its hold over the Dalits in the upcoming general election.
The Samajwadi Party is also working on PDA “Picchda” (backward), Dalit and “Alpasankhyak” (minority) formula to win the support of Dalits and OBC. The BSP is working on Dalit- Muslim-OBC formula to win seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
The party has announced to field Muslim candidates from Muslim-dominated seats located in Rohilkhand region. They include Dr Mujahid Hussain from Amroha, Irfan Saifi from Moradabad, Anish Ahmed Khan alias Phool Babu from Pilibhit and Majid Ali from Saharanpur Lok Sabha seats.
There is a clear indication that the BSP will cut into the Muslim vote base of the INDIA bloc. It has announced to field a Jat candidate from Bijnor, a Dalit from Agra and a Brahmin candidate from Ambedkar Nagar seat thereby ‘upsetting’ the strategy of the NDA.
Confident that the BSP will regain hold over the Dalit community in this election, Mayawati called upon the supporters to mobilise their resources in the Lok Sabha election. After the launch of the BSP in 1984, Mayawati toiled with party founder Kanshi Ram to spread the base of the party in Uttar Pradesh.
She created history on June 3, 1995 by taking oath of office as first Dalit woman chief minister, emerging from the churning of the Mandal revolution and the painstaking coalition of Dalit and backward communities crafted by her mentor Kanshi Ram.
In 2007, she achieved an even more impressive feat, forging a coalition of extremes between Dalits, Muslims and Brahmins as she swept to power with the first full majority government in almost a decade. In the successive assembly and Lok Sabha polls, the reputation of jumbo (BSP poll symbol) was in tatters due to definite defeats that sent signal that party’s hold over Dalits was loosening.
The party that once ruled the state fell behind small parties like Apna Dal (S), NISHAD party and the SBSP that spread by eating into the BSP’s OBC vote base. Mayawati named her nephew Akash Anand as her political successor in December last year to send a message that she was infusing young blood into the party organisation. Earlier, she had appointed her brother Anand Kumar as party’s national vice president.
Leaders of rival parties hit back alleging that Mayawati was promoting dynasty in the cadre based party. “If Mayawati wishes for a comeback, she will have to go to the basics—regroup Dalit-backward communities and promote ‘missionary soldiers’ in ticket distribution as an insurance against desertion,” Dalit ideologue AR Akela said.
But it will be tough. Politics in the state is getting bipolar and the BSP is getting squeezed out. Many Dalit communities are no longer tied by ideology and the BJP has been proactive in winning them over by welfare promises and grassroots party positions.
Old leaders are discouraged by turncoats getting tickets. The party is battling the perception that it is out of sync with 21st century campaigns and its narrative of giving dignity to Dalits appears to be losing steam.
Addressing party workers Kanshi Ram’s birth anniversary on Friday, Mayawati called upon party workers to resolve to get a good Lok Sabha election result and said this will be the true tribute to the party founder. The BSP will go into the Lok Sabha election with the slogan “Manyavar Kanshi Ram aapka mission adhura, behenji karegi pura (BSP chief Mayawati will fulfil the unfinished mission of Kanshi Ram).”
The preparations of the NDA and INDIA bloc and silence in the BSP office indicate that time is running out for the four-time Dalit chief minister to fulfil her mentor’s mission.