The road ahead: UP set to see scramble for OBC, Dalit votes
INDIA bloc increased its seat tally and vote share by breaching the OBC, EBC and Dalit caste formula prepared by the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha election
LUCKNOW INDIA bloc’s sterling performance and NDA’s drubbing in the Lok Sabha elections in UP has set the pitch for the fight for Other Backward Class (OBC), Extremely Backward Castes (EBC) and Dalit votes in the run-up to the 2027 assembly polls in the state.
The poll outcome indicates that INDIA bloc increased its seat tally and vote share by breaching the OBC, EBC and Dalit caste formula prepared by the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. With the support of non-Yadav OBCs, non- Jatav Dalits and EBCs, the saffron party secured victory in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls as well as in 2017 and 2022 assembly elections.
Poll results also show that the INDIA bloc bagged a large number of seats not only in its stronghold – the Yadav land (Etah, Etawah, Firozabad, Mainpuri and Kannauj), but also in the Bundelkhand region, Central and East UP dominated by OBCs - Kurmi, Maurya, Shakya, Kushwaha, Rajbhar and Nishad communities as well as Dalit communities including Jatav, Pasi, Kori, Valmiki and Dhobis.
INDIA bloc also won the support of the large chunk of OBC, EBC and Dalit votes, countering BJP’s experiment to consolidate its hold over the OBC vote base by sewing alliance with Apna Dal (S) led by Anupriya Patel, SBSP led by Om Prakash Rajbhar and NISHAD party led by Sanjay Nishad in East UP.
Caste-based parties had a hold over communities whose vote was decisive in 27 Lok Sabha seats that went to polls in the sixth and seventh phase of LS polls. Out of the 27 seats in the last two phases, the NDA secured victory on 10 seats while INDIA bloc bagged17.
INDIA bloc partners SP and Congress not only secured victory on 43 seats, but also increased their vote share. The SP, which won five seats in 2019 Lok Sabha elections and polled 18.11% votes, increased its tally to 37 seats and vote share to 33.59%. The Congress took its tally from one seat in 2019 to six and its poll percentage from 6.36% to 9.46% in 2024 Lok Sabha election.
The NDA suffered its worst defeat with a decline in seat tally as well as vote share after it captured power at the centre in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. It secured victory on 36 seats, and the vote share of the BJP declined from 49.98% in 2019 to 41.37% in the 2024 election. Ally Apna Dal (S) that polled 1.21% votes and bagged two seats in 2019, saw its vote share shrink to 0.92% and won one seat.
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) also saw a decline in vote share and shift of vote base, failing to open its account in the 2024 election. The vote share of the Dalit-based party declined from 19.43% in 2019 to 9.39%.
The SP, which had not won reserved seats in 2019, bagged seven reserved seats while ally Congress captured one. All the reserved seats were won by the BJP, BSP and Apna Dal (S) in the 2019 election.
However, BSP chief Mayawati asserted that along with other Dalit communities, the core support base of her party - Jatavs - supported the BSP in the 2024 election.
Countering Mayawati’s claim, a Dalit ideologue Anant Rao Akela said the decline in the vote share clearly shows that dalits deserted the BSP and voted for INDIA bloc. “Issues like the BJP’s plan to amend the Constitution, caste census and marginalization of the dalit community under BJP government raised by SP and Congress leaders during the election campaigns created dissent among Dalits against the NDA government. The BSP was not in the position to challenge the might of the BJP, so Dalits supported INDIA bloc,” he said.
Former Samajwadi Party state unit president, Naresh Uttam Patel, who secured victory from Fatehpur Lok Sabha seat defeating BJP candidate and former Union minister Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti, said the PDA formula - Pichhada, Dalit and Alpsankhyak Muslims worked for the INDIA bloc in 2024 election. “The OBCs are traditional support base of the SP and the election results clearly show that we succeeded in winning back our core support base that was captured by the BJP in 2014 and 2019 elections. SP will now consolidate its hold over the non-Yadav OBCs as well as Dalit voters to defeat the BJP in the 2027 assembly polls,” he said.
Out of the 62 seats that SP contested, it gave tickets to 27 non-Yadav OBCs, five Yadavs (all members of SP Yadav family), 15 Dalits, four Muslims, and 11 upper caste leaders, said another SP leader. “Our focus on OBCs worked in overwhelming the BJP in the electoral contest,” he added.
BJP state unit spokesperson Rakesh Tripathi said with the support of OBC and other communities, NDA bagged 36 seats in the election. “The claim of opposition parties that OBCs deserted the BJP does not hold ground. Our allies Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Apna Dal (S) also bagged seats in their area of influence. We did not get seats according to our expectations. A meeting of the party leaders and office-bearers will be held soon to review the performance of the party in all the 80 Lok Sabha constituencies,” he said.
The BJP gave tickets to adequate number of OBC and Dalit candidates in the Lok Sabha elections, said Tripathi.
Prashant Trivedi, associate professor at Giri Institute of Development Studies, (Lucknow), said INDIA bloc played caste dynamics effectively to breach the rainbow coalition of castes built by the NDA during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. INDIA bloc drafted its strategy well and gave representation to all OBC communities in ticket distribution. Complaints among non-Yadav communities of being sidelined were also addressed, he said.
The victory of SP’s Dalit candidate from Faizabad constituency where the BJP bult the Ram temple, shows that OBCs and Dalits rallied behind the SP candidate. Now, the BJP faces a big challenge of building the caste coalition before the 2027 assembly polls, he added.