UP assembly bypolls likely to be decisive for state politics
High-stakes by-election to 10 assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh between NDA and INDIA bloc, crucial for state politics and setting tone for 2027 election.
After the Lok Sabha election, another NDA vs INDIA faceoff is in the offing in the high-stakes by-election to 10 assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh and the outcome could be decisive for state politics.
The BJP-led NDA is aiming to bounce back from the disappointment of the Lok Sabha election while the SP and Congress-led INDIA bloc aims to consolidate its hold by increasing its tally. The BJP won 33 out of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, down from its 2019 tally of 62 seats. The SP won 37 seats, its highest Lok Sabha tally, and the Congress six.
The bypoll results will also set the tone for the 2027 U.P. assembly election.
If the NDA retains seats it won in 2022 and manages to breach INDIA bloc strongholds, it will give the much needed boost to the BJP cadre. On the other hand, the defeat will intensify rumbling in the BJP. If the INDIA bloc wins, it will give momentum to its game plan to dislodge the BJP from power in 2027.
NDA leaders have claimed the INDIA bloc bagged 43 Lok Sabha seats in U.P. by misguiding people on the issue of Constitution and reservation whereas the assembly by-poll will be contested on local issues and the Yogi Adityanath government’s performance.
Chief minister Yogi Adityanath’s prestige will be at stake in the by-election.
A BJP leader said Prime Minister Narendra Modi led the party campaign in the Lok Sabha election while Union home minister Amit Shah worked on the strategy. In the by-election, the onus will be on the chief minister for defeat or the victory of the party, he said.
Adityanath on Wednesday held a meeting with ministers to discuss the byelection strategy.
He asked ministers to visit constituencies regularly, interact with local people and party workers and redress grievances on priority.
A group of three ministers was constituted and each group was allotted one constituency.
There is also churning among the BJP allies over the state government’s working. While Apna Dal (Sonelal) chief and Union minister Anupriya Patel raised the issue of reservation in the government jobs, NISHAD party chief Sanjay Nishad blamed bulldozers for the Lok Sabha election results.
“Officers used bulldozers to arbitrarily demolish houses of the poorand they mobilized to defeat the NDA,” he said.
On the other hand, the SP and Congress have decided to contest the byelections in alliance.
Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav on Wednesday said the bypoll results will be better than the Lok Sabha election outcome. A Congress leader said seat-sharing with SP will be finalized after the Election Commission issues a notification.
Yadav plans to take on the NDA with his tried and tested PDA formula (Pichda (backwards), Dalits and Alpsahkhyaks (minorities) that paved the way for the SP Party emerging as the single-largest party in Uttar Pradesh with 37 Lok Sabha seats.
The Bahujan Samaj Party’s announcement that it will field candidates on all the 10 seats will make the contest three-cornered. Previously, the BSP had stayed away from bypolls but the shift of Dalit votes to the INDIA bloc in the Lok Sabha election alarmed it.
BSP chief Mayawati plans to show party supporters that she has not left the field after the party failed to win any seat in the Lok Sabha seat. The BSP also aims to check the shift of the party’s votes to NDA and INDIA bloc.
Mayawati announced in June that her nephew Akash Anand, who is the party’s national coordinator, will lead the byelection campaign.
Nine assembly seats were vacated after the sitting MLAs were elected to the Lok Sabha. These seats are Karhal, Katehri, Kundarki, Khair, Manjhwa, Meerapur, Milkipur, Phulpur and Ghaziabad Sadar.
Another seat Sisamau was vacated following the disqualification of sitting SP MLA Irfan Solanki, who has been sentenced by a court in a criminal case.
In the 2022 assembly election, the Samajwadi Party bagged five of these seats – Karhal, Katehri, Kundarki, Milkipur and Sisamau. The BJP won three seats -- Khair, Phulpur and Ghaziabad Sadar. The NDA ally RLD, who was then with the SP, won Meerapur and the NISHAD party bagged the Manjhwa seat.
While some of the seats are considered strong forts of the respective alliances, others have been changing parties in successive elections.
KARHAL
The Samajwadi Party stronghold Karhal is located in Mainpuri district. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav won the seat in 2022, defeating BJP candidate and Union minister SP Singh Baghel. The SP has been winning the seat since the 1993 assembly election. Akhilesh vacated the Karhal seat after he won the Kannauj Lok Sabha seat in June. The SP is likely to field a Yadav family member in the by-election. The BJP is also working on a strategy to give a tough fight to the SP.
KATEHRI
Once a BSP stronghold, Katehri in Ambedkar Nagar was considered a laboratory of Dalit politics in U.P. The political scenario on the seat changed after Lalji Verma, a former minister in Mayawati government defected to the SP in 2021. Verma won the seat the SP ticket in the 2022 assembly election. He vacated the seat after winning the Ambedkar Nagar Lok Sabha in 2024. The SP is likely to field a member of the Verma family or an OBC leader for the seat. The presence of the BJP and BSP will make the contest three-cornered.
MILKIPUR
The Milkipur assembly seat in Ayodhya district is in the limelight after the sitting MLA Awadesh Prasad defeated BJP candidate Lallu Singh from the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat. The SP is projecting Awadesh Prasad as a giant killer who, despite the Ram temple hype, managed to trounce the BJP in its stronghold. The bypoll is likely to witness an interesting contest as the BJP will try to wrest the seat from the SP.
MANJHWA
The Manjhwa seat in Mirzapur district fell vacant after sitting Nishad Party MLA Vinod Kumar Bind won the Bhadohi Lok Sabha seat on the BJP ticket. The BSP had won the Manjhwa seat in 2002, 2007 and 2012 assembly elections. The BJP won it in 2017. The riverine community vote is decisive here.
PHULPUR
The Phulpur seat in Prayagraj district was vacated after the election of sitting MLA Parveen Patel from Phulpur Lok Sabha constituency, defeating SP candidate Amarnath Maurya. The seat is likely to witness a tough contest between the SP and BJP for OBC votes in the by-election.
SISAMAU
The Sisamau seat in Kanpur district was vacated after SP MLA Irfan Solanki’s disqualification after a court convicted him in a criminal case.
Solanki won the seat in the three 2012, 2017 and 2022 consecutive assembly elections. The SP aims to retain the seat on the Muslim- OBC formula whereas, after winning the Kanpur seat in the Lok Sabha election, the BJP is working to wrest the Sisamu seat from the SP.
KUNDARKI
Considered an SP stronghold, the Kundarki seat in Moradabad district was vacated after the election of sitting SP MLA Zia-ur Rehman Barq to the Lok Sabha from the Sambhal seat. There is speculation that the BJP might field a Muslim candidate for the seat.
KHAIR
The Khair assembly seat in Aligarh district was vacated after election of sitting BJP MLA Anoop Pradhan Valmiki to the Lok Sabha from Hathras. Along with Dalits, the seat has a significant Jat presence. The BJP hopes to retain the seat with the RLD’s support. The Congress is likely to stake claim to the seat, according to sources.
GHAZIABAD SADAR
Ghaziabad Sadar assembly seat was vacated after the election of sitting MLA Atul Garg to the Lok Sabha from Ghaziabad constituency. An urban dominated seat, it is considered a BJP stronghold. The BJP is confident of retaining the seat in the byelection. The Congress is likely to stake its claim in the bypoll.
MEERAPUR
The Meerapur assembly seat in Muzaffarnagar district is among the five assembly segments of the Bijnor Lok Sabha constituency. The seat was vacated by sitting RLD MLA Chandan Chauhan, who won the Bijnor Lok Sabha seat. In the by-poll, the seat is likely to be allotted to the RLD. Buoyed by its victory in Muzaffarnagar Lok Sabha seat, the SP is working to wrest Meerapur from the RLD.