Will MLC polls witness another breach in oppn ranks?
BJP aims to test opposition unity in the upcoming March 21 Vidhan Parishad poll in Uttar Pradesh, the last political exercise before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
LUCKNOW: After February 27 Rajya Sabha poll outcome, in which Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) got seven Samajwadi Party (SP) lawmakers, including the chief whip, to cross-vote and one another to abstain to its advantage, all eyes are now on the March 21 Vidhan Parishad poll, the last political exercise ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha elections, scheduled for April-May. Once again, the BJP may use the occasion to test opposition unity.
The BJP is now expected to make further inroads into the main opposition party with the support of SP rebels during the Vidhan Parishad polls, more so because unlike the Rajya Sabha polls, in these elections the voters (members of legislative assembly) are not required to ‘show’ their vote before casting; a prospect that only increases the possibility of cross-voting further, politicians in both the BJP and SP admit.
Some admit that the Vidhan Parishad polls may see more SP lawmakers quitting the party while other feel that an independent contesting at the last minute with BJP backing can also set up a contest.
The 403-member UP assembly has a present strength of 399 and with three lawmakers in jail and unlikely voters, as was the case in Tuesday’s Rajya Sabha poll, the effective voting strength would be further reduced to 396. In this scenario, the quota of first preference votes required for each candidate would be around 29, an official said.
Out of the 13 MLCs whose term is ending on May 5, 10 belong to the BJP, while the SP, BSP, and Apna Dal (Sonelal) have a member each. On its present strength, the BJP-led-National Democratic Alliance (NDA) bloc has 286 MLAs and with the support of 2 MLAs of Kunda lawmaker Raja Bhaiya’s Jansatta Dal (Lok Tantrik) party, this goes up to 288. NDA includes BJP (252), Apna Dal-S (13), RLD (9), SBSP (6) and Nishad Party (6).
The NDA bloc now also enjoys the tacit support of eight rebel SP lawmakers who are expected to back BJP picks taking the effective strength of voters to 296. However, two of its MLAs - SBSP lawmaker – Abbas Ansari (Mau) is in jail and another lawmaker –Jagdish Narain Rai cross voted in favour of the Samajwadi Party in Rajya Sabha polls, reducing the NDA numbers to 294. The lone BSP lawmaker in UP assembly had also backed the BJP in Rajya Sabha and if the trend holds on, it will mean BJP would have support of 295 lawmakers.
On the other hand, the INDIA bloc led by the Samajwadi Party and Congress have 110 MLAs and one cross-voting SBSP lawmaker in the Rajya Sabha means an additional supporter for the Vidhan Parishad. However, with two lawmakers in jail (Irfan Solanki and Ramakant Yadav) and eight turning rebels, the effective strength of the opposition bloc would be 101.
This means that the BJP will now be able to get 10 MLCs elected, one more than what it may win with its own numbers. Meanwhile, the Samajwadi Party may get three of its candidates elected (87 votes) and still be left with 14 spare votes, which is 15 short of the desired 29 votes needed to try its luck for the fourth candidate.
“We will keep the opposition guessing (on our game plan) till the last minute,” a BJP leader said suggesting that the party is assured of ‘more support’ from opposition ranks and hence will not shy away to force a contest, either on its own symbol or by discreetly backing an independent.
The BJP MLCs who are retiring include Mahendra Kumar Singh, Vijay Bahadur Pathak, Mohsin Raza, Vidya Sagar Sonkar, Sarojini Agarwal, Yashwant Singh, Ashok Kataria, Ashok Dhawan, Bukkal Nawab and Nirmala Paswan. SP’s state chief Naresh Uttam Patel, BSP’s Bhim Rao Ambedkar and Apna Dal (S) leader and UP minister Ashish Patel are among others whose tenure is ending. With only BJP and SP able to send their lawmakers to the Vidhan Parishad, there is intense lobbying from candidates in both camps as speculation grows about the caste profile of candidates that both camps would settle for.
The Congress representation of the legislative council has already ended and the lone BSP representation too would end after May, with BJP as the dominant party in the upper house followed by the Samajwadi Party and teachers’ group MLCs. The notification for filing of nomination of candidates will be issued on March 4. The last date for nomination is March 11. Scrutiny will be done on March 12. The last date for withdrawal of nominations is March 14. Voting will be held on March 21 from 9 am to 4 pm. The counting of votes will take place from 5pm the same day. The election process will be completed before March 23.