Will the Lok Sabha poll results impact Brand Yogi?
In Gorakhpur division, the home turf of Yogi Adityanath, the BJP checked the INDIA bloc offensive
In the 2022 Uttar Pradeh assembly elections, the BJP stormed back to power with a decisive mandate, giving the incumbent chief minister Yogi Adityanath a second successive term in a result seen as an affirmation of his staunch Hindutva politics, coupled with stern action against the big mafia and a determined investment push.
Now, with the BJP receiving a drubbing at the hands of the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance in Uttar Pradesh in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the focus is back on Adityanath, whose Brand Yogi had emerged due to the party’s reliance on him just as Brand Modi was in play on the larger national stage.
The possible impact the poll results could have on Yogi’s position in the state and the party’s internal politics will be watched on the road to the 2027 UP assembly polls.
In the 2017 UP assembly elections, Adityanath had emerged as the surprise chief minister in Uttar Pradesh, consolidating his position with Hindutva politics and fortifying the saffron citadel with a slew of development and infrastructure projects. Riding on the double engine government’s performance, the BJP won the 2019 Lok Sabha as well as the 2022 assembly elections.
Though Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the face of the BJP election campaign in 2024, the BJP was dependent on its star campaigner Yogi to counter the opposition.
Yogi addressed 169 public meetings, 15 prabudh sammelans and held 13 road shows to give momentum to the party campaign.
The BJP faced a tough contest from the INDIA bloc in its stronghold, the Varanasi region where Modi won the Varanasi seat albeit by a reduced margin. The BJP also bagged the Bhadohi seat but lost the Chandauli Ghazipur and Jaunpur seats. Union minister and two-term MP Mahendra Nath Pandey was defeated by SP candidate Birendra Singh in Chandauli.
In Gorakhpur division, the home turf of Adityanath, the BJP not only checked the INDIA bloc offensive, but managed to save its fort by winning five seats -- Gorakhpur, Maharajganj, Deoria, Kushinagar and Bansgaon. Polling in Gorakhpur region was held in the seventh phase, Yogi camped in Gorakhpur to monitor and give a push to the party campaign there. His effort paid dividends as the BJP won the Domariyaganj and Gonda seats as well.
“In the Lok Sabha election, rather than the state factors, the national ones are in play. Despite an SP surge in the 2022 assembly election, Yogi ensured that the BJP returned to power with a comfortable majority of seats. He has the capablity to pull the BJP out of the quagmire of defeat to victory in the 2027 assembly election. The BJP should use Yogi’s charisma that has the mass appeal to regain the lost ground in East U.P. where the BJP has suffered worst defeat since 2014 Lok Sabha election.
A BJP leader said Adityanath addressed public meetings in all the 80 Lok Sabha seats but his role was limited in the selection of candidates.
The senior party leaders were aware that there was strong anti- incumbency against a majority of the two and three-term MPs. Among the 62 MPs who won the 2019 Lok Sabha election in UP, 55 were repeated in the 2024 election. A majority of the party candidates facing anti- incumbency lost. During a meeting, state leaders had briefed the central leadership about the anti- incumbency against the candidates but to their surprise all got tickets, he said.
After getting feedback that several candidates were on a sticky wicket, Aditynanth addressed meetings in their constituencies.
The election results indicate that despite Yogi’s anti- incumbency against the candidates gave the INDIA bloc the advantage, the BJP leader said.
The chief minister was not keen on giving seats to Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) chief Om Prakash Rajbhar, his inclusion in the cabinet was delayed after Dara Singh Chauhan, who defected from the SP, lost the Ghosi by poll.
Despite adverse ground reports, the party’s central leadership gave the ticket to Arvind Rajbhar from Ghosi in the hope of getting the OBC votes; he not only failed to transfer the OBC vote but was defeated by the SP candidate, said another BJP leader.
When the campaign started in west Uttar Pradesh, Adityanath’s public meetings were limited to a few seats as party leaders from the region and RLD led the campaign.
After the second phase, when the BJP leadership received feedback that going was tough, rallies of Yogi were increased from the third phase, said another BJP leader.