With RLD support, BJP aims at dominance, SP-Congress eye Muslim consolidation
In the 2019 LS elections, the BJP won seven of the eight seats, with Amroha being the sole seat captured by the BSP, which was then in alliance with the SP and the RLD
LUCKNOW With high political stakes and diverse issues at play, the second phase of Lok Sabha polls, under which eight constituencies will vote on April 26, promises to be crucial for both the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the INDIA bloc as well as the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) that is going solo in the electoral battle.

The nomination process for phase 2 commenced in eight LS constituencies on Thursday. These included Amroha, Meerut, Baghpat, Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddh Nagar, Bulandshahr, Aligarh and Mathura.
The constituencies represent demographic diversity, with their own set of concerns ranging from agriculture, social security, infrastructure, mobility, communal harmony and law enforcement.
While most of these seats are BJP’s stronghold with its ally - the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) - also commanding influence in constituencies like Baghpat, Mathura, Bulandshahr and Aligarh, the BSP too has been a formidable contender in some of these constituencies.
In the 2019 LS elections, the BJP won seven of the eight seats, with Amroha being the sole seat captured by the BSP, which was then in alliance with the SP and the RLD.
Like the first phase, the second phase too will test the RLD’s influence over Jat voters and the SP-Congress alliance’s sway over Muslim voters. Barring Mathura (8.5%), the other seven constituencies have Muslim votes between over 16% (GB Nagar) and 39% (Amroha). The BSP too has significant influence in most of the eight constituencies and its decision to go solo will also be tested.
AMROHA
Amroha was the only seat the BJP failed to win in 2019 despite the Modi wave. BSP’s Kunwar Danish Ali wrested this seat from the BJP by defeating Kanwar Singh Tanwar, securing more than 60% of the votes polled.
Amroha is one such parliamentary constituency that has given a chance to almost all ideologies and all political parties or their alliances, including the Communist Party of India (CPI).
Before the BSP emerged victorious here in 2019, the BJP won this seat in 2014. While the RLD captured this seat in 2009, an independent won the seat in 2004.
The BSP won the Amroha seat in 1999 too, defeating the BJP that won the seat in 1998. Voters of this constituency did not disappoint the SP either as it also secured victory here in 1996 LS polls. BJP was the winner in 1991.
The Janata Dal won in 1989 and the Congress in 1984. This seat went to the Janata Party (Secular) in 1980 while the Bharatiya Lok Dal (BLD) secured victory here in 1977. The CPI won the seat in 1971.
In 2024, Kunwar Danish Ali switched loyalties becoming the Congress’ candidate challenging BJP’s Kanwar Singh Tanwar and BSP’s Mujahid Hussain. It will be interesting to watch Amroha play musical chairs.
MEERUT
Though there are around 34% Muslim voters in the Meerut constituency, BJP has been able to win this seat five times since 1996 while SP never succeeded in winning here. Of the seven LS polls held since, the BJP lost only 2004 and 1999 when BSP and Congress emerged victorious, respectively.
BJP’s Rajendra Agrawal won the Meerut seat three consecutive times in 2009, 2014 and 2019, defeating the BSP each time.
However, in 2024, the BJP chose to replace Agrawal with Arun Govil who played the lead character of Lord Ram in the famous TV serial ‘Ramayan’ in the 80s.
Will Govil meet BJP’s expectations? While the answer to this question will be known only on June 4 when the poll results are out, the surprise entry of ‘Ram’ in the electoral battlefield has certainly made the contest more interesting. The BSP and the SP have sent Devrit Tyagi and Bhanu Pratap Singh as their ‘warriors’ to the electoral battlefield in Meerut.
BAGHPAT
Baghpat has been a pocket borough of Chaudhary Charan Singh’s family since 1977. The late PM made a hattrick by winning the Jat-Muslim seat in 1977,1980 and 1984. His son Ajit Singh secured victories in 1989 (JD), 1991 (JD), 1996 (Congress) and in 1999, 2004, 2004, 2009 as RLD candidate. He lost for the first time in 1998 to BJP’s Sompal.
He again lost in 2014 to BJP’s Satya Pal Singh, ex-Mumbai commissioner who also defeated Ajit’s son and RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary in 2019.
In 2024, BJP has an alliance with the RLD and the former IPS officer has been denied a ticket. The Baghpat seat has been allotted to ally, the RLD that has fielded loyalist Rajkumar Sangwan. He is pitted against SP’s Manoj Chaudhary and BSP’s Praveen Bainsla.
GHAZIABAD
Ghaziabad as a Lok Sabha constituency came into existence in 2008. It has gone to Lok Sabha polls thrice since and the BJP has secured victory each time. Defence minister Rajnath Singh won this seat in 2009. After him, ex-army general VK Singh secured victory in 2014 as well as in 2019, with a record vote share of 69.93%, defeating SP’s Suresh Bansal, a Vaish. Both Rajnath Singh and VK Singh are Thakur by caste.
This time, however, the party denied ticket to the ex-general. The BJP has fielded Atul Garg, a Bania (Vaish) instead. Many Thakurs in the constituency are believed to be upset over the BJP denying ticket to a Kshatriya.
GAUTAM BUDDH NAGAR
Like Ghaziabad, this Parliamentary constituency also came into being in 2008 and has sent BJP’s Mahesh Sharma to Parlaiment in 2014 and 1019. In 2009, BSP emerged winner in this constituency.
BJP’s Mahesh Sharma got 59.64% votes in 2019 defeating BSP’s Satveer who, as an alliance candidate, secured 35.45% votes. In 2014, Sharma was pitted against the SP.
The BJP reposed faith in Sharma in 2024 as well while the SP and the BSP have fielded Rahul Awana and Rajendra Singh Solanki, respectively.
BULANDSHAHR
Currently a reserved constituency, Bulandshahr has been a BJP stronghold for decades. Barring 2009, when the SP emerged as the winner here, the BJP has been securing victory on this seat since 1991.
BJP’s Bhola Singh, who 66.56% votes, defeated BSP’s Yogendra Verma in 2019. In 2014 too, the same BJP candidate defeated the BSP candidate again.
ALIGARH
Of the eight LS elections here since 1991, the BJP secured victory in six. 2009 and 2004 were the only exceptions when the BSP and the Congress captured the seat, respectively.
In 2019, BJP’s Shatish Gautam defeated BSP’s Ajeet Baliyan, securing 56.38% votes. In 2014 also, Gautam defeated the BSP candidate.
While the BSP has a strong vote base here, the SP has probably never won this seat with around 20% Muslim voters.
MATHURA
Mathura also has been a BJP stronghold for decades and the party has lost only one election since 1991. Its poll partner then, the RLD captured the seat in 2009, the Congress won in 2004 while the SP and the BSP have never been able to win this seat.
In 2019, BJP’s Hema Malini defeated RLD’s Narendra Singh, securing 60.79% votes. In 2014, she defeated RLD’s Jayant Chaudhary who got 14.5% votes. The BJP has fielded the same candidate for the third consecutive term.
In Mathura, the RLD too wields considerable influence over Jat voters who constitute a significant chunk. With the RLD as its ally, the BJP hopes to win this seat with a record margin.
According to Pawan Sharma, a professor of political science at Chaudhary Charan Singh University, it is likely to be smooth sailing for the BJP in all the eight constituencies in the second phase.
“Now, the BJP’s alliance with the RLD has only made the sail smoother for it,” he said.
Sharma said mobility was one of the most important issues for voters in western UP. “Mobility that has got a tremendous push due to a better road infrastructure has changed the entire scene in western UP,” he opined.
However, he did not rule out the possibility of the SP-Congress alliance giving a tough fight to the NDA on some seats.
