MVA’s great attempts at unity amidst deep diversity

The three parties want to make a go of it for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Here are the hurdles they’ll have to overcome

In a meeting of Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) district unit chiefs held on May 17 in Mumbai, some leaders expressed unhappiness over the way their chief Uddhav Thackeray was treated during a meeting of Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition partners called by Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar on May 14. How could their leader have been made to sit with second-rung leaders of the Congress and NCP, some complained. Thackeray heard them out, and told them that Pawar called the meeting at Silver Oak, his residence in upmarket Bhulabhai Desai Road in south Mumbai, to discuss seat-sharing among partners for the upcoming Lok Sabha and assembly elections. Pawar took advantage of the upbeat mood after the Congress’s victory in Karnataka assembly polls and immediately convened a meeting of MVA leaders the next day itself. He reportedly personally called Thackeray to invite him.

Several MVA leaders HT spoke to said that contesting elections as a three-party coalition was easier said than done

The following day, Marathi news channels were rife with stories about the Congress’ unhappiness over Thackeray picking possible candidates for parliamentary constituencies: Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi chief Prakash Ambedkar for south central Mumbai; Amol Kirtikar, son of sitting MP Gajanan Kirtikar, for north west Mumbai. (The senior Kirtikar is part of chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena while Amol stayed back with the Thackerays). According to the news reports, the Congress was keen on south central Mumbai and even had its Dharavi legislator Varsha Gaikwad in mind for it.

While these reports are speculative, it is telling that the bickering between MVA leaders is already underway even as top leadership of all three parties is determined to fight the polls as a coalition. Several MVA leaders HT spoke to said that contesting elections as a three-party coalition was easier said than done.

"Arithmetically, things look good but bringing leaders and workers from three parties with different political cultures (NCP-Congress come from a typical Congress culture while Shiv Sena (UBT) has a different style of functioning) and expecting them to work for a common goal is a difficult task. It is one thing to form a government of three parties, it’s quite another to contest as an alliance,” a senior leader from the NCP said, requesting anonymity.

Turf wars, a tussle for dominance, leaders’ egos and calculations for seat allocation as well as on ground work by party units will add up to make an MVA victory — if it happens — a political fairy tale. At the hustings, things are difficult.

Tussles over seat-sharing

While the three parties, NCP, Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT), have come together after the Supreme Court’s recent verdict that Thackeray upheld as his “moral victory”, the tussle between them continues.

The biggest hurdle that they will need to resolve is how to reach a seat-sharing formula that makes everyone happy. The state has 48 Lok Sabha seats and 288 assembly seats. In the 2019 Lok Sabha and assembly polls, the contest was between two alliances, Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena on one hand, and the NCP-Congress on the other.

In the general elections, BJP contested 25 seats while the Sena contested 23. The Congress and NCP fought the polls as an alliance on 26 seats and 22 seats, respectively. For the state assembly polls, the BJP contested 162 seats while the Shiv Sena contested 126. The Congress and NCP contested on 125 seats each and left the rest for smaller allies.

The BJP-Shiv Sena combine won 41 out of 48 seats (BJP won 23; Sena bagged 18), while NCP won four and the Congress won only one seat. In the assembly polls, the BJP won 105 seats, Shiv Sena 56, NCP 54 and Congress 44.

In both cases, the BJP-Sena combine managed to capture more vote share as well as more seats. Now, with the alliance landscape vastly different from what it was five years ago, a more refined arithmetic will be required.

“The initial formula was to divide 48 Lok Sabha seats equally between three parties so each could contest in 16 seats. But Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress were not happy with that so it is being reconsidered,” a senior NCP leader said while requesting anonymity. On Friday, Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut told the press that the Sena wanted to contest the 18 Lok Sabha seats that it won in 2019.

“Though Sena won 18 seats in 2019, it was because of alliance with BJP. With more than two-thirds of their MLAs gone, they will have to take a hard look at their current strength. Elections can be won on emotions but one needs cold logic when it comes to planning election strategy,” he said.

Leader of Opposition and NCP leader Ajit Pawar said a few days after the meeting that the seat-sharing discussions will include both Lok Sabha as well as state assembly elections. “We will discuss seat-sharing in all 288 seats as well as in 48 Lok Sabha seats, as there is a buzz that both the elections may be held together and we don't want to be unprepared.”

This, too, is hard strategy.

“This will help us to compensate parties if they lose certain Lok Sabha seats,” a former minister from NCP requesting anonymity, said.

The Congress and NCP have been allies since 1999 (except between 2014 and 2018) and even contested Lok Sabha and Assembly elections together in 2004, 2009 and 2019 together. Yet, neither party spared any attempt to score over each other in these elections too.

Sparks of a rebellion?

The leaders of all three parties must also stamp out any possibility of a rebellion as the number of seats their party members can contest on is limited by a seat-sharing agreement.

“This could happen in the assembly elections itself. Since each of the three parties will be contesting less than 100 seats, there could be a significant number of dissidents in the opposition coalition. In almost each constituency, there would be one or more prospective candidates who have been preparing for the election and building or nurturing their network anticipating a party ticket.

"If their parties do not get the constituency, they could rebel. We are sure that the BJP or Shinde-led Shiv Sena will cash in on this dissidence and provide them resources to cut into the votes of MVA official candidates to damage our prospects,” a senior leader involved in the seat-sharing discussions, said.

To minimise the threat, the three parties have agreed to form a two-tier structure for seat-sharing talks. There will be a six-member committee — two members from each party — at the state level. There will also be division-wise committees with local leaders. “They will be taken into confidence so that there won't be any large rebellion,” the senior leader quoted above said.

However, the bigger problem lies not in the bigger elections, but in the most local of them. With the elections to civic bodies, especially those regarding cities like Mumbai coming up, all eyes are on how the allies will allocate their candidates. State Congress chief Nana Patole issued a statement earlier in the week saying that his party was keen on contesting local body elections including Mumbai’s on its own steam, entering into an alliance only where it is necessary.

Pressure from central agencies

Leaders from all three parties are expecting more trouble by central agencies as their campaign kicks off.

“It is no secret that more than half a dozen NCP leaders are worried about inquiry by agencies like the Enforcement Directorate or Income Tax or even state agencies like the Anti-Corruption Bureau. Same is the case with a few leaders in the Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT). We are expecting some more trouble as the MVA campaign takes off. There is a possibility that some of our legislators and other leaders would cross over to avoid this trouble,” a former Congress minister said on the condition of anonymity. At the local level too, state agencies could force some leaders to back out of the race or defect to ruling parties, he said.

A tussle of egos

“Trust me, the bickering and egos of leaders is a major factor,” a senior NCP leader said, pointing out the public spat between his party colleague, Ajit Pawar and Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut, as well as that between Raut and state Congress chief Nana Patole, that was all over the news in the past four weeks.

In April, Raut's remarks in the party mouthpiece, Saamana on speculations about Ajit Pawar’s rebellion in the NCP led the latter to advise Raut to mind his own business. On May 12, after the Supreme Court delivered its verdict on the split in the Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar told the media that Patole had resigned as the Speaker of the assembly (in February 2021) without consulting the allies. Patole, in turn, asked why did deputy speaker Narhari Zirwal (who is from the NCP) not disqualify the rebel Shiv Sena MLAs led by Shinde. Zirwal had issued notices to the MLAs but could not complete the process as the government fell following Thackeray's resignation on June 29 and the new speaker was elected after Shinde’s government was formed.

When leaders from Thackeray’s camp said that the Shinde-led government could fall since the 16 MLAs, including Shinde, would be disqualified following the SC’s verdict, Ajit Pawar said the government would not fall even if the 16 MLAs were disqualified.

“This was unnecessary and uncalled for. He is leader of the opposition in the assembly and expected to play a major role in shaping the narrative against the ruling parties. Instead, he praises Prime Minister Modi and says the Shinde government will not fall,” a Sena (UBT) functionary said.

This then is the rub of it: while the top leaders may choose to stand together, their unity will need to percolate down to the diverse cadre of each of the parties.

“The top leaders may feel the need to come together to defeat the BJP but will the local level leaders and common workers of each party do the same? Do they have a similar urge to defeat the BJP? In fact, the trend in the past few years is that there is no ideological divide that is clearly seen in the state, especially at the local level,” Padmabhushan Deshpande, a Mumbai-based political analyst said.

“A power tussle within the MVA or between local leaders will only sabotage the coalition's prospects and affect its tally,” he added.