Thackeray-Shinde face-off in 6 seats in test of strength for both Senas

Mumbai and MMR were an undivided Shiv Sena bastion. The party won all the above-mentioned six seats in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections

MUMBAI: The fifth and last phase of the state’s polling on Monday will be a crucial one for both Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray and chief minister Eknath Shinde, as the two rival Sena factions are set to clash in six of the 13 seats, mostly in Mumbai and the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), both of which were considered a stronghold of the undivided Shiv Sena. Both Sena factions also have to rely on the help of their allies in this phase.

Navi Mumbai, India - May 19, 2024:Election officials were seen distributing materials as Thane Lok Sabha Elections will be held on May 20 at Election Centre Nerul in Navi Mumbai, India, on Sunday, May 19, 2024. (Photo by Bachchan Kumar/ HT PHOTO) (HT PHOTO)

Of the 13 seats, six are in Mumbai, four (Thane, Kalyan, Bhiwandi and Palghar) in the rest of MMR and three in North Maharashtra (Nashik, Dindori and Dhule). Of these, Thackeray’s Sena (UBT) is contesting eight seats—Mumbai South, Mumbai South Central, Mumbai North West, Mumbai North East, Thane, Kalyan, Palghar and Nashik. In six of these seats—Mumbai South, Mumbai South Central, Mumbai North West, Thane, Kalyan and Nashik—the contest is between the Sena (UBT) and the Shinde-led Shiv Sena.

Mumbai and MMR were an undivided Shiv Sena bastion. The party won all the above-mentioned six seats in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Besides, a significant number of the Sena’s assembly seats came from this area in successive assembly elections. Given this background, Monday’s battle will be crucial for both Thackeray and Shinde. The outcome of the election will also have a major impact on the two factions’ bitter fight for the Shiv Sena’s legacy and will show whether the sympathy for Thackeray among the Marathi people following the engineered split in his party works in his favour.

In elections, after the end of campaigning, the two days considered most crucial are the day before the voting and voting day. Candidates and parties reach out to voters and ensure that they vote. A day before voting, the distribution of voters’ slips is the most important work for the candidate. Candidates need a ward-wise network to successfully distribute the slips. On voting day, they need an area-wise network of local leaders and social groups to encourage voters to come out of their homes to the polling centre. For all this, candidates need help from their party and alliance partners in their area of influence.

Both the Senas will need the support of their allies in this phase. Shinde had locked horns with the BJP to wrest the Thane and Kalyan Lok Sabha seats. He succeeded but the conflict reflected at the local level during the campaign—in Kalyan, major BJP leaders were absent during his road show for his son, sitting MP Shrikant Shinde. Also, as most of the MLAs in the assembly seats that come under the Kalyan Lok Sabha constituency are from the BJP, Shrikant Shinde needs the support of the party to chalk up a respectable victory against Thackeray faction candidate Vaishali Darekar-Rane.

In Thane, Shinde’s candidate Naresh Mhaske posed a challenge to sitting MP Rajan Vichare from Thackeray faction but disgruntled BJP leaders in Thane turned into a headache for Mhaske. As three of the six MLAs in this constituency belong to the BJP and the fourth is a former BJP leader contesting as an independent, deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis was forced to go to Thane on the last day of the campaign and hold a meeting with party leaders and workers. Fadnavis instructed everyone to work hard for the victory of Mhaske, and recited the BJP mantra: that it did not matter who the candidate was, the election was to make Modi prime minister again.

In Mumbai South too, the Shinde faction’s Yamini Jadhav has to depend on the BJP, as the party controls the Colaba and Malabar Hill assembly constituencies and has a good presence in the Worli one. Here, the Thackeray faction’s candidate and MP Arvind Sawant needs help from alliance partner Congress in the Mumba Devi segment, as local MLA Amin Patel belongs to the Congress, apart from which the Congress has a good number of supporters in the Byculla area.

In Mumbai North West, Shinde candidate Ravindra Waikar’s fate totally depends on the BJP, as the party holds three assembly segments out of six. In Mumbai South Central constituency, MP Rahul Shewale has to rely on the BJP in Sion Koliwada and Wadala, as both areas have MLAs from the BJP. Here, the prospects of the Thackeray faction’s Anil Desai will be dependent on the help from Congress Mumbai president Varsha Gaikwad, who is the Dharavi MLA. Desai will also have to depend on Congress and NCP leaders from the Anushakti Nagar assembly segment dominated by minority voters.

In the Nashik Lok Sabha constituency, the Thackeray faction’s Raja Waje’s chances depend on the cooperation he gets from the NCP, as the party’s founder Sharad Pawar has a large number of followers in the district. Waje will also need the Congress’ cooperation in the tribal areas to win against sitting MP Hemant Godse. Godse, on his part (he is fighting for the third time), will not be able to win without the support of NCP leader Chhagan Bhujbal and two other NCP MLAs. Besides that, three BJP MLAs in Nashik will play a crucial role in the election.