Poll bugle blows in sugarcane belt, multiple factors at play
Battle for first phase of Lok Sabha election in Uttar Pradesh's sugarcane belt to test Jat politics, Muslim-Dalit votes, new alliances, and political equations.
As the battle for the first phase of the Lok Sabha election begins, all eyes are on the sugarcane belt of western Uttar Pradesh where multiple factors such as Jat politics, Muslim and Dalit votes, besides new political equations, are expected to come into play and sway the outcome.

The notification for this phase was issued on Wednesday, signalling the start of the nomination process.
The eight constituencies that will vote in the first phase on April 19 are Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Nagina, Moradabad, Rampur and Pilibhit. Barring Pilibhit (26.1%), Muslims comprise more than 40% of the voters in the other seven constituencies.
In this phase, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) will be tested on its ability to secure Jat votes for its new alliance with the BJP, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress will seek to leverage the sentiment among minorities in Muslim-majority constituencies.
This is the first election after Bharat Ratna was conferred on former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh posthumously. Chaudhary Charan Singh is RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary’s grandfather. The RLD has fielded Chandan Chauhan in Bijnor.
The BJP leaders are also working hard to increase their tally of seats in the region. Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a rally in Bulandshahr on January 25, three days after “Pran Pratishtha” of Ram Lalla at the Ram temple in Ayodhya. He again visited the region for laying the foundation stone of “Kalki Dham” in Sambhal on February 19.
The Bahujan Samaj Party will aim to maintain its influence over Dalit voters, who, like Muslims, form a significant portion of electors in almost all eight Lok Sabha segments.
The SP-BSP-RLD alliance posed a formidable challenge to the BJP on these seats in 2019. Despite the Modi wave, the BJP could win only three of the eight seats -- Muzaffarnagar, Kairana and Pilibhit. The BSP also won three seats Saharanpur, Nagina and Bijnor while the SP, its partner, bagged the Moradabad and Rampur seats.
Later, BJP candidate Ghanshyam Lodhi won the Rampur Lok Sabha by-poll in June 2022 after SP leader Azam Khan vacated this seat on his election to the state assembly.
The BSP’s Haji Fazlur Rehaman won the Saharanpur seat, getting 41.72% of the votes. He defeated BJP that got 39.9% votes followed by the Congress 18.8%.
The BJP won Kairana by defeating the SP. They secured 50.43% and 42.23% votes respectively. The Congress polled 6.17% of the votes. The BJP also won the Jat-Muslim dominant Muzaffarnagar seat where its candidate Sanjeev Baliyan secured 49.39% of votes, only marginally more than RLD’s Chaudhary Ajit Singh (48.83%).
The BSP’s Malook Nagar won the Bijnor seat by securing 50.91% votes against 44.57% by the BJP and 2.34% by the Congress. The Nagina seat also went to the BSP that got 56.29% votes followed by the BJP’s 39.77%.
The SP won the Moradabad seat. Its candidate ST Hasan secured 50.65% votes vis-a-vis BJP’s 43.03% votes. The SP also won the Rampur seat where Mohd Azam Khan got 52.69% votes defeating BJP’s Jaya Parada who managed 42.33% votes. The Congress candidate got 3.3% votes.
The Pilibhit seat went to the BJP. Its candidate Varun Gandhi got a record 59.34% votes, defeating the SP nominee who secured 37.81% votes.
The equations have, however, have changed this time due to making of fresh pre-poll alliances and breaking of the old ones. In 2019, the SP, the BSP and the RLD had joined hands against the BJP while the Congress went on its own.
In 2024, the RLD, with a considerable influence over Jat votes, has returned to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) while the SP and the Congress have come together as INDIA bloc constituents. This time, it is the BSP that has chosen to go solo.
Will the alliance be able to get Muslims votes en bloc for it? That will be interesting to watch.
In 2019, the BSP won three of the eight seats with Muslims and Dalits voting for the alliance in a big wayThe ability of BSP chief Mayawati to mobilize and sway this crucial voting bloc will be put to test in the first phase itself.
“The first phase will be very crucial for all major political players. The political acumen of making and breaking alliances will be put to test and so will be their perceived influence over various caste groups and communities,” political scientist Shasi Kant Pandey said.
The INDIA bloc comprising the SP and the Congress in U.P, according to him, will definitely pose a big challenge to the NDA in all the eight LS seats due to their being Muslim dominant constituencies.
“But the SP-Congress alliance will not be as formidable challenge to the BJP-led NDA in 2024 as was the SP-BSP-RLD alliance to it in 2019,” he predicted, adding, “The BSP will make a dent in the SP-Congress votes to the advantage of the NDA that also has the RLD on its side this time as an added edge over the INDIA bloc.”