Sympathy factor vs sanghatan’s strength at play in key by-election in Sisamau
In the battle for the main voter segments—Muslim, Brahmin, and Dalit communities -- the BJP is countering the emotional appeal of the SP candidate by mobilising its organisational base
The Sisamau assembly constituency in Kanpur, a key battleground in the November 20 by-election, is witnessing a keen contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is determined to secure the seat it has not won since 1996, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) is relying on an emotional appeal and family legacy in a bid to hold onto it.
Naseem Solanki, the SP candidate, is hoping to garner sympathy following the conviction of her husband, Irfan Solanki, in a land grab case earlier this year. Irfan Solanki had represented the constituency for three consecutive terms before losing his membership of the assembly after his conviction.
The Solanki family, however, retains a strong influence in the Muslim-dominated constituency.
On the other hand, the BJP has put its organisational strength behind its candidate Suresh Awasthi, a Brahmin face, who is contesting for the second time. Awasthi lost to Irfan Solanki in 2017, during the height of the Modi wave, securing 67,204 votes against Solanki’s 73,030. Five years later, in 2022, Solanki secured 79,163 votes, while the BJP’s Salil Vishnoi managed 66,897.
Despite the slim margin of defeat in the last two assembly elections, the BJP has faced a tough challenge in a constituency with shifting voter dynamics.
The Sisamau seat, a reserved constituency until 2012, has seen multiple political parties vie for power since 1985. The Congress won in 1985 with Kamla Dariyabadi and the Janata Dal’s Shiv Kumar Beria wrested it in 1989. In 1991, the BJP’s Rakesh Sonkar won the seat for the first time, retaining it in 1993 and 1996, after which Congress’s Sanjeev Dariyabadi won it twice in 2002 and 2007. Following the 2012 delimitation, the seat became a general one, and Irfan Solanki made a successful transition from Arya Nagar to Sisamau, holding onto the seat for three terms until his conviction.
This by-election, however, appears to be a battle for key voter segments—Muslim, Brahmin, and Dalit communities. The BJP is countering the emotional appeal of the SP candidate by mobilising its organisational base, which has been strengthened since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP’s internal assessment revealed significant weaknesses in Muslim-majority areas, with 60 booths in densely Muslim pockets where the party failed to garner votes. Additionally, there are organisational challenges at 90 booths out of 275, which the party is keen to address.
The BJP has quickly focused on mobilisation, with chief minister Yogi Adityanath already holding two rallies and deputy chief minister Brajesh Pathak focusing on Brahmin voters. The party is also giving particular attention to Dalit voters. For this, key BJP figures, including ministers Suresh Khanna and Nitin Agarwal, as well as MP Ramesh Awasthi, have been canvassing in Dalit strongholds. Deputy CM Keshav Maurya also campaigned extensively for the party candidate on Wednesday.
The BJP is working to counter the PDA formula by focusing on balancing the Brahmin-Dalit-OBC equation, with a strong emphasis on smaller communities.
Party leaders explained, “Each voter matters and we are targeting even Muslim-dominated pockets this time. The Biradari sammelans are our key outreach strategy.”
At the same time, Naseem Solanki is capitalising on her family’s legacy and her emotional appeal. During Dussehra, she was invited to various Ram Leela stages, where she appeared alongside prominent leaders. Recently, she visited the Balkhandeshwar Temple, performing a “jalabhishek” and overseeing the purification of the temple with 1,000 litres of Ganga water. Irfan Solanki had used his MLA funds to contribute ₹50 lakh to the temple’s development between 2017 and 2022.
Naseem Solanki broke down at a recent rally while sharing the stage with Shivpal Yadav, recounting the hardship her family has faced and urging voters to support them in their time of need.
The Congress is also vying for influence in the region with former MLA Sanjeev Dariyabadi campaigning for the party. The SP has also secured support from prominent leaders such as Akhilesh Yadav, his wife Dimple and Iqra Hasan, the Kairana MP.
This multi-party contest will be a crucial test for both the BJP and the SP, as each seeks to secure the loyalties of Sisamau’s diverse electorate.
GFX
SISAMAU WINNERS
Congress: 1985, 2002, 2007
Janata Dal : 1989
BJP: 1991, 1993, 1996
SP: 2012, 2017, 2022
2022 ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULT
Irfan Solanki (SP) 79,163 votes
Salil Vishnoi (BJP) 66,897 votes
Suhel Ahmed (Congress) 5,616 votes
2024 ASSEMBLY BY-ELECTION
Naseem Solanki (SP)
Suresh Awasthi (BJP)
Veerendra Kumar (BSP)
KEY ISSUES
The widening of the GT Road has led to a high volume of heavy traffic flowing into the heart of the city, making it one of the most polluted areas.
Seven of the 16 railway crossings fall within this constituency, along the GT Road, contributing to severe congestion in densely populated areas. There has been a long-standing demand for solutions such as underpasses or an elevated track.
The constituency is also grappling with a water crisis, with widespread complaints about the lack of piped water supply. The water tanks installed are insufficient to meet the needs of the public.
Muslim residents have claimed that their localities are neglected in terms of development and sanitation.
There is also growing anger against the Kanpur Municipal Corporation (KMC) for its failure to address pressing issues in the civic wards.
SOCIAL MOSAIC
The political landscape of Sisamau is primarily shaped by Muslims, Brahmins and Dalits. Before the 2012 delimitation, the seat was reserved for Dalits, giving them a numerical advantage. However, post-delimitation, the Muslim community now makes up about 30% of the population, with Brahmins and Dalits forming the second-largest voter groups.
Sisamau is one of the most polarised constituencies, where politics is often dominated by religious lines.