What the caste survey means for Nitish-Lalu, and the BJP
Caste churning isn't new to Bihar, starting with the JP movement to the formation of the EBC category. But will this data lead to another Mandal moment?
The caste survey report conducted by the Bihar government and released earlier this week, in all probability is an indicator of another social churning in the state.
The process began in the 1970s and seemed to have stabilised under the leadership of Other Backward Classes (OBC) patriarchs Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar. When the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) began to establish its presence in the state, the process for another round of Mandal politics began with the formation of Mahagathbandhan (the Grand Alliance) under Nitish Kumar’s leadership.
In the 1970s, Bihar had five chief ministers from the Backward Classes (BCs) and two from the Scheduled Castes (SC). “The accession of backward caste/Scheduled Caste ministers did not alter the social vantage too much with an exception to late Karpoori Thakur’s decision as education minister to abolish English from school and college curricula as well as its requirement in higher education institutes. This led to a dramatic change in the social composition of institutes, with an influx of students from rural areas and backward castes and a rise of the ‘forward’ among the backward castes (Yadavs, Kurmis, Koeris), said Gyanendra Yadav, an associate professor of sociology based in Patna.
“There is nothing called vote for development, at least not in Bihar. Caste, there is plenty, and the jockeying has begun following the political realignment caused by the break between the two leading parties in Bihar—JD (U) and BJP, after 17 years — last August. As the state heads for Parliamentary elections due in 2024, caste dynamics will be the underpinning of electoral choices of all parties, drawing both from old positions and new calculations,” said a senior NDA leader soon after the census report was published. “The caste calculus in the state has not changed one bit,” he added.
Yadav, however, pointed out that the impact could well be far-reaching.
“The impact of the caste survey would be discernible in the months to come as it has provided the actual numerical strength of caste groups, which could create a new set of leaders and challenges for the current leadership,” he said.
Impact of the JP movement
The 1974 JP (Jayaprakash Narayan) movement is when the seeds of the politics of the 1990s were sown, according to Yadav. “Almost all of the later political leaders of the 1990s,” emerged from it, he said.
Despite not being expressly centred on the social questions of caste, this movement provided a boost to the process of the shifting of power and proved to be a training ground for the new breed of leaders. Just as the older generation of leaders had the reference to the struggle for ‘first Independence’; the new leaders now had the reference to the ‘second freedom’.
The impact was immediately witnessed. In the assembly and national elections after the JP Movement and Indira Gandhi’s Emergency, the Congress won no Lok Sabha seats from Bihar and only 57 out of 324 seats in the state assembly. However, out of these 57, Yadavs for the first time headed the list with 10 victors, edging out the Brahmins (9), followed by the Rajputs (7), Bhumihars (6) and Koeris (4) and Kurmis (2). In Bihar, Karpoori Thakur formed the Janata Ministry as chief minister.
Soon after, in 1978, Thakur implemented 25% reservation for the Other Backward Classes in government services and decided to hold Panchayat elections which broke the dominance of the upper castes in local government. Between 1988 and 1989, Bihar saw the rise of caste armies like the Lorik Sena (Bhumihars), the Kunwar Sena (Rajputs), the Lal Sena (landless labourers) and the “Naxalite parallel government” in parts of the state.
Social engineering
The roots of the current political positions in Bihar’s caste matrix can be traced back to the Mandal politics of the late 1980s and the ensuing social engineering experiments. The implementation of the Mandal Commission report by the late prime minister V P Singh, which led to the creation of a new category for job reservations— the OBC — caused significant churn in north Indian politics.
Backward classes replaced powerful upper castes in positions of political power, especially in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. The fight between the BJP and the Mahagathbandhan to gain an edge in vote share by creating new forms of caste alliances and splitting the others is clearly continuing.
The caste survey report shows that OBCs constitute 27.12% of Bihar's population, extremely backward classes (EBCs) 36.01%, SCs 19.65%, Scheduled Tribe (STs) 1.68% and the rest (general) 15.52%.
The EBC comprises of 112 castes, BC 30 castes, STs 32 and SCs 22 castes.
“It will definitely drive the EBCs to demand not only a greater share from parties but also even the chair of the chief minister. So far, only Karpoori Thakur has become the CM from the EBC,” said Anand Mandal, a social activist and grandson of BP Mandal. “Similar will be the aspirations of Muslims who also form 17.70% of the population. They will also demand proportional representation as has been the claim of parties advocating caste survey,” he said.
Already, “Muslim CM” has become one of the top trending subjects on X, with many stating that all major political parties including the RJD, JD (U) and the Congress bank on Muslim votes but have only given bare minimum representation.
The OBCs, EBCs and Muslims form the core voter group for the Nitish-Lalu combine and if these communities by and large stick to the Grand Alliance, the BJP is in trouble here.
“The 36% EBC population would be important for Kumar’s survival as it is this section of society which Kumar has created as a vote bank,” said former head of economics department, Patna University, N K Chowdhary.
But caste support doesn’t always mean votes
Nitish has been in power since 2005 and has created a bouquet of castes comprising not just his fellow Kurmis but also the other non-Yadav OBCs (EBCs) and Mahadalits. He also has a sizable support base amongst the dominant upper castes and minorities. “The 36% EBC population with 112 sub-castes, were instrumental in giving Kumar a near uninterrupted run on the post of CM since 2005 as this was the population which of late, became afraid of Lalu Prasad. But it is true that the BJP has made a substantial dent in that. Only time will tell whether the communities will continue to back Nitish Kumar,” said Mandal.
The group of castes was carved not just to serve as an exclusive support base but also to project an image of a leader who, in being inclusive and empowering, was flexible in approach, free of corrupting influences and most importantly, having no familial baggage to carry.
The BJP, which reinvented its Hindutva line to make inroads among OBC and Dalit people, were left largely unattended by the traditional Mandal parties. The BJP could take advantage of the growing perception among numerically weaker OBC groups that parties like the Samajwadi Party or Rashtriya Janata Dal are led by and serve only the dominant Yadavs, or the feeling among smaller Dalit communities that only Jatavs have benefited from the Bahujan Samaj Party.
Kumar, in a similar way, consolidated non-Yadav OBC groups and brought together Dalit parties in his coalition to dislodge now-ally Lalu Prasad in Bihar. Experts are of the opinion that it is not only Kumar and Lalu who would realign their poll policies, but also the saffron party, which has started targeting caste groups in a planned way.
“The 90s scenario is gone. They have an OBC PM, the state party president is a Kushwaha and the party may spring a surprise by giving representations to more women,” said Chowdhary.
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