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Ian Bremmer

Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group and author of Superpower: Three Choices for America’s Role in the World. He tweets as @ianbremmer.

Articles by Ian Bremmer

In the Trump-Kim deal, China is the biggest winner

As US influence recedes with a partial drawdown of troops, China will gain another step toward becoming East Asia’s dominant diplomatic and economic player.

A combination photo shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang, North Korea and U.S. President Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., respectively from Reuters files. Will Kim accept anything less than an explicit US pledge never to invade his country?(Reuters)
Published on May 12, 2018 03:49 PM IST

The turmoil in the US and Europe — including tech change and inequality — are crossing into the developing world

Where do all those energetic, ambitious young people go? The youth bulge we see in many developing countries can move from economic advantage to political threat as their path out of poverty is blocked. If they never join the active workforce, they will never have access to the education and training needed to earn 21st century jobs, and they know their children will fare no better

A protester attends a demonstration during a national day of strike against reforms in Paris, France, March 22(REUTERS)
Updated on Apr 15, 2018 07:33 AM IST

Angela Merkel is beleaguered but she is far from finished

As she begins her fourth and final term as Germany’s chancellor, her party remains Germany’s strongest, and she is more popular than the party. Germany’s economy will continue to expand. Unfortunately, Europe and the world need more leadership than a frustrated and erratic Donald Trump and a beleaguered Angela Merkel can provide.

An asylum seeker takes a selfie with German Chancellor Angela Merkel following her visit to a branch of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees and a camp for refugees in Berlin, 2017(AFP)
Updated on Mar 31, 2018 04:08 PM IST

Friction between the US and China is likely to last through 2018

Here’s the problem: Each side believes the other is more vulnerable. Trump officials believe that China needs continuous access to US markets to avoid a sharp economic slowdown that might provoke a political crisis. Chinese officials believe their president is much less vulnerable to pressure than Trump, who must listen to continuous complaints from US business leaders and face voters again soon enough

Trump officials believe that China needs continuous access to US markets to avoid a sharp economic slowdown that might provoke a political crisis. Chinese officials believe their president is much less vulnerable to pressure than Trump, who must listen to continuous complaints from US business leaders and face voters again soon enough(REUTERS)
Updated on Feb 13, 2018 01:28 PM IST

As the US scales back on foreign policy interventions, China is stepping into the vacuum

As he begins his second five-year term, Xi has consolidated enough power at home to redefine China’s external environment and set new rules within it. His timing is perfect; China is stepping forward just at the moment that a politically embattled and distracted US president is scaling back US commitment to traditional allies and alliances. The United States has created a vacuum, and China stands ready to fill it

Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks during a joint press briefing with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on January 9, 2018. Chinese President Xi Jinping and French counterpart Emmanuel Macron met Tuesday for talks and to oversee the signing of business deals as the two global leaders seek closer ties(AFP)
Published on Jan 20, 2018 06:22 PM IST

In 2018, regional security will matter most for war and peace

In the new year, we’ll begin to see more clearly that connections between politics, security, and our economies are changing more quickly and becoming more complex than we might have imagined when 2017 began

As Trump backs the US away from new commitments, China’s government will continue to advance the Belt-Road project to extend its economic — and, therefore, political — influence across Asia and into Europe(AFP)
Published on Dec 29, 2017 06:42 PM IST

HTLS column by Ian Bremmer: Foreign policy rides on Modi’s charisma

PM Narendra Modi’s charisma, his determined push for economic development and his anti-corruption drive have made him broadly popular.

PM Narendra Damodardas Modi shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after signing the guestbook at the Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial museum in Jerusalem on July 4 2017. In July, Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Israel.(AP File Photo)
Updated on Nov 29, 2017 02:31 PM IST

African National Congress could well lose power in the next polls

The current government’s promises to turn things around don’t have much credibility. Jacob Zuma has survived nearly 800 separate charges of fraud, money-laundering, and graft, a court ruling that he violated the country’s constitution, multiple votes of no-confidence, and a rape trial. South Africa’s Central Bank governor has now called for a public investigation into ties between Zuma, business leaders, and a family of Indian businessmen known as the Guptas.

South African president Jacob Zuma in New Delhi, 2015(Hindustan Times)
Updated on Oct 28, 2017 03:11 PM IST

The power of China’s chequebook shows in its rising global influence

Whether it is in Asia, Africa or Europe, China is using investment to get what it wants from countries and governments in need

One of Kenya's newly acquired standard gauge rail locomotives, carrying Kenyan President pulls into Voi railway station on May 31, 2017, in Voi. Kenya's President Uhuru Kenyatta on Wednesday inaugurated a Chinese-built railway, the country's biggest infrastructure project since independence that is aimed at cementing its role as the gateway to East Africa.(AFP)
Updated on Sep 25, 2017 10:00 AM IST

Is it too early to get optimistic about the European Union?

Germany under Angela Merkel and France under Emmanuel Macron are the bright spots, while developments in Italy, Turkey and Poland give cause for concern

From left, French President Emmanuel Macron, US President Donald Trump, EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, British Prime Minister Theresa May, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Italy, May 26, 2017(AP)
Updated on Aug 12, 2017 09:35 PM IST

On climate change, immigration, federal states can oppose Trump’s ‘America First’

The Trump administration’s often rejectionist ‘America First’ approach to the rest of the world has given a new urgency for federal states and big cities in the US to strengthen ties with foreign governments, on issues like tackling climate change

No issue better illustrates the power of US states to set their own agendas than climate change. Here is a ‘problem without borders’ that can’t be addressed without cooperation from the US, which remains the second largest emitter of greenhouse gasses after China(AFP)
Updated on Jul 13, 2017 04:31 PM IST

Who is the next leader of the free world, now that the US is not?

Who is leader of the free world today? Not Trump, the first US president since the 1930s who does not believe that international leadership is in the US national interest. Is it Europe? China?

French President Emmanuel Macron, U.S. President Donald Trump, EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, British Prime Minister Theresa May, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at a G7 meeting(AP)
Updated on Jun 20, 2017 04:10 PM IST

As North Korea grows more aggressive, Trump will have to figure out ways to handle it

Given claims of North Korea and Kim Jong-un having developed intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads, Donald Trump will have to be very careful in dealing with the country

Sanctions won’t change minds in Pyongyang, because the leadership pays no political price for hardship imposed on the North Korean people, and because they help Kim Jong-un’s government persuade them that outsiders want to destroy them.(AFP)
Published on May 24, 2017 01:28 PM IST

A Le Pen presidency could lead to a financial disaster in France, EU

Le Pen might not have majority support, but her voters seem much more motivated than those of any of her rivals. Last November, Donald Trump won support from just 26% of eligible US voters. Given the lukewarm support for Hillary Clinton and the decision by millions of Americans to stay home, Trump’s passionate 26% proved just enough for victory

A supporter holds a poster to support Marine Le Pen, French National Front leader and candidate for French presidential election, during a political rally in Perpignan(Reuters)
Updated on Apr 17, 2017 10:28 PM IST

It’s not just Trump, it’s the economy

Economic frustration will make the US an even less predictable international actor, because Trump has persuaded his core supporters that outsiders — China and Mexico, in particular — are to blame for “stealing” US jobs

U.S. President Donald Trump attends a meeting with U.S. House Deputy Whip team at the East room of the White House in Washington, March 7. If more working class Americans feel left behind, Donald Trump’s search for scapegoats will become an even more important part of his foreign and trade policies.(REUTERS)
Updated on Mar 20, 2017 09:05 PM IST

On Donald Trump’s immigrant ban, the world is seeing red

Trump faces questions at home about why he chose to include only countries in the region where he owns no hotels, but an attack on Americans by one mentally unstable citizen of another Muslim-majority country will generate pressure on Trump to extend his ban.

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the House of Commons, Ottawa, January 31. Not long after Trump’s announcement on immigrants, Trudeau used Twitter to make clear that Canada remains open to refugees.(REUTERS)
Updated on Feb 18, 2017 07:45 PM IST

Trump’s ‘Independent America’ is the biggest global political risk in 2017

Donald Trump insists that the world’s sole superpower will spend its resources only in pursuit of core US interests — without regard for the consequences for everyone else. This is not isolationism. Instead, this is an extreme unilateralism grounded in Trump’s conviction that other governments are invoking traditional ties and common values to take advantage of US taxpayers

Donald Trump insists that the world’s sole superpower will spend its resources only in pursuit of core US interests — without regard for the consequences for everyone else. This is not isolationism. Instead, this is an extreme unilateralism.(Reuters/AP)
Updated on Jan 04, 2017 12:40 AM IST

Clouds of uncertainty hover over Trump’s foreign policy

US president-elect Donald Trump’s lack of experience in government or military service is bound to reflect on his politics. Initial indicators show that his approach towards Europe, Asia, West Asia and Latin America not very encouraging

it’s relations between Washington and Beijing that will bear closest scrutiny. Even here there is hope for improvement. Trump may press hard on trade, investment and currency issues
Published on Dec 16, 2016 03:17 PM IST

Make America great again: It’s over to Donald Trump

For the next four years, Donald Trump will be hounded by people who find his mere presence in the Oval Office anathema to what they believe America stands for. To be fair, Hillary Clinton would be facing a similarly divided and impassioned electorate, perhaps without a sympathetic Congress backing her

A woman stops to read messages written on post-it notes regarding the election of President-elect Donald Trump in New York, November 15, 2016(REUTERS)
Updated on Nov 18, 2016 12:52 AM IST

Why a Trump presidency is bad news for the US and world

Combine Donald Trump’s willingness to overturn assumptions about the use of American power with a relatively unknown cast of supporting characters and it’s easy to see why much of the world will be holding its breath till November 8

Hillary Clinton speaks briefly with Donald Trump while attending the annual Alfred E Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner at the Waldorf Astoria on October 20, 2016 in New York City(AFP)
Updated on Oct 21, 2016 11:13 PM IST

It’s not such a scary world

HT Image
Published on Sep 09, 2016 07:27 AM IST

Headlines magnify many of the crises we are facing today

The risks of a conflict in the South China Sea, of a Moscow-Kiev face-off and of Donald Trump becoming US president are highly exaggerated

Anti-Trump protestors gather outside a rally for US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at the Summit Sports and Ice Complex. (File Photo)(AFP)
Updated on Sep 08, 2016 09:23 PM IST

Putin has many reasons to smile

HT Image
Published on Aug 08, 2016 07:56 AM IST

Luck smiles on Russian President: Why Putin has many reasons to cheer

Recent world events are going in favour of Russian President Vladimir Putin. He is also an accomplished political opportunist who is no doubt looking for creative new ways to seize the day

Vladimir Putin blames then US secretary of state Hillary Clinton for inciting protests against him in Moscow in 2011(AP)
Updated on Aug 07, 2016 11:48 PM IST

Trump is unlikely to have a Brexit feel in November

British voters who support Brexit tend to be white working-class citizens alarmed by immigration, anxious over the impact of globalisation on their job prospects, and angry at politicians who don’t seem to care. But the US is a much more diverse country than the UK

For all his fame, Trump faces an uphill fight. Hillary Clinton’s Democrats have won the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections(AFP)
Updated on Jul 23, 2016 11:08 PM IST
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