Number Theory: In Maharashtra, how BJP traded uncertainty for influence
The problem for the both the BJP and every other party in the state is that nobody knows how much support the NCP and Shiv Sena have with the factions.
Maharashtra sends the second largest number of MPs to the Lok Sabha, 48, after Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80. The Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) and its allies – the Shiv Sena and the Swabhimani Paksa in 2014 and just the Shiv Sena in 2019 -- swept the state in both Lok Sabha elections winning 42 and 41 of the 48 parliamentary constituencies (PCs) respectively. The political landscape in the state, however, has changed drastically for the 2024 elections because of a split within the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). The BJP is fighting the elections in an alliance with the parties recognised as the official Shiv Sena and the NCP by the Election Commission and the Congress is in an alliance with the Sena and NCP factions led by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar that are consider themselves as the legacy units of the party. The political churn and the uncertainty this has created in the state’s politics may make the state more challenging for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Here are three charts which explain this in detail.
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