Number Theory: Will Karnataka continue to favour the BJP in national elections?

14 out of the 28 parliamentary constituencies in Karnataka will vote in the second phase of 2024 general elections on April 26.

The Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) had swept the state in the 2019 elections, winning 25 out of the 28 parliamentary constituencies (PCs) while one PC was won by a BJP supported independent candidate. Political fortunes shifted drastically in the 2023 assembly elections in the state when the Congress won a seat share of 60%. The 2023 results also led to a realignment in the state’s politics which bringing the BJP and the Janata Dal (Secular) or JD(S) together. In 2019, it was the Congress and the JD (S) which were in a pre-poll alliance. Which way could Karnataka vote in the 2024 elections? Here are three charts which answer this question.

BJP supporters at Prime Minister Narendra Modi's rally in Chikkaballapur, Karnataka.(PTI Photo)