Will India or China send more students abroad in 2030 | Report
As per the projections made by Navitas, India and China will continue to send the most students to study abroad, followed by Nigeria.
The influx of students for higher education to various countries has seen an apprehensive approach mainly due to the changes in visa rules and uncertain diplomatic ties between countries.
As much as higher education in the most preferred destinations like Canada, UK, USA, etc is a dream for many, it is heavier on the pocket with the rising expenses of basic amenities. Hence, students are making careful considerations into choosing their colleges for higher education.
But will that stop them from pursuing education at their dream colleges? A presentation at the October 2024 Australian International Education Conference (AIEC), "Global student flows: understanding the ‘next’ wave in international education," showcased some interesting data-based forecasts for international student mobility, mentioned an ICEF report.
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According to Navitas, a global education provider, in 2019, six million students were studying in countries other than their own, and in the coming years, a 4% growth in the figures is being projected, culminating in just over nine million students abroad by 2030.
Who will lead the student mobility?
As per the projections made by Navitas, India and China will continue to send the most students to study abroad, followed by Nigeria.
The influx of Indian students to countries like Canada, UK, USA, Australia and other most preferred study abroad destinations have been high.
According to Ethan Fogarty, Senior Manager, Government Relations, Navitas, the dynamics of the population between the two countries can guarantee an upward outbound mobility trajectory for India as the number of 18-22-year-olds in India is expected to surpass China's by 2030. (see image)
However, on comparing the tertiary enrolment ratio, outbound study mobility ratio, and GDP per capita, the figures are lower than that of China’s. These factors lead to a lower projected outbound volume for India in 2023, mentions Navitas.
Other factors that would determine the student mobility would be affordability, unemployment and limited job prospects, mentioned the report.
“Poor employment prospects can actually drive positive effects for students’ propensity to study," says Ethan Fogarty.
According to the observations made in the report, India may reach China in the next 10 years, but for that, China will have to substantially slow down, tied to a much weaker performance and India will need to see large growth driven by migration pathways in multiple major destination countries.
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Also Read: Australia and the US overtake Canada as the preferred study abroad destination of choice: Survey
