Assembly poll results vs exit polls: How close were they for BJP - Hindustan Times
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Assembly poll results vs exit polls: How close were they for BJP

By | Written by Aryan Prakash | Edited by Aloke Tikku
Mar 10, 2022 03:22 PM IST

Assembly election results 2022: A majority of the exit polls had predicted big gains for the Bharatiya Janata Party in states including Uttar Pradesh

The counting of votes for the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa are underway. As per the trends, the Bharatiya Janata Party has retained Uttar Pradesh is leading on 245 seats. The saffron party is also set to form the government in Uttarakhand and Manipur while it is just short of majority in Goa.

A Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporter holds the cutouts of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.(ANI)
A Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporter holds the cutouts of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.(ANI)

The month-long election season had ended on March 7 with a seven-phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh. The exit poll predictions for all states were released just minutes after the last vote was cast in India's most populous state. Most of the exit polls had predicted big gains for the Bharatiya Janata Party, a much needed booster shot before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

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Now let us compare how close have the exit poll predictions translated for the saffron party.

It is said that the road from Lucknow leads to Delhi. The BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched a massive poll blitzkrieg year before the poll dates were announced, ranging from inaugurating big ticket development projects across the length and breadth of the state. When the exit polls were released, most of the projections weighed in favour of the BJP.

Be it the India Today-Axis My India (288-326), Chanakya (294) or the Republic survey (240), the post-poll surveys predicted that the people of Uttar Pradesh had given a thumbs up to the Modi-Yogi double engine government. As per the counting trends suggest, the numbers for BJP must have brought smiles to the faces of pollsters who had called the elections.

In neighbouring Uttarakhand, the majority of pollsters predicted no clear winner between the incumbent BJP and the challenger Congress. Forced to change three chief ministers just months ahead of the polls, the BJP was predicted by some poll surveys like India Today-Axis My India, Times Now-Veto and News24-Today's Chanakya to duck the anti-incumbency wave and form the government again. As the trends started trickling in, the saffron party was way ahead of its rival.

The coastal state of Goa witnessed a multi-cornered electoral contest between the BJP, Congress, Aam Aadmi Party, Trinamool Congress and regional outfits like the MGP and GFP. The pollsters had predicted a tight contest between the two main national parties, indicating that the state was headed for a hung assembly. The trends paint a similar picture with the BJP emerging as the single largest party but few short of the majority mark.

The BJP has bet big on the north-eastern states of India. In Manipur, the saffron party in 2017 had managed to form the government despite the Congress emerging as the single largest party. In the 2022 Assembly polls, the exit poll predictions had tipped the BJP within striking distance of forming the government. The India Today-Axis My India survey predicted that the BJP would win 33-42 seats, Times Now-Veto's pollsters predicted a majority with 33-34 seats, Republic-P Mark survey had projected it to win 27-31 seats, and the ABP-C Voter survey said BJP would fall short of the majority mark. If the current trends hold, the BJP which is leading on 21 seats will be able to form the government with a little support from independent candidates and potential allies. 

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