Gujarat: AAP fails to make a mark; both state party chief, CM face stare at defeat - Hindustan Times
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Gujarat: AAP fails to make a mark; both state party chief, CM face stare at defeat

Dec 08, 2022 04:13 PM IST

AAP, which was aiming to replace the Congress as the main opposition party in Gujarat, failed not just to do so, but also in positioning themself as a strong third front

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) ran a long, enthusiastic and ambitious assembly elections campaign in Gujarat since March, led by the party’s national convener Arvind Kejriwal and Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Mann, in a bid to replicate their success in the Surat civic body polls in 2021.

Aam Aadmi Party national convener and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal. (PTI Photo)
Aam Aadmi Party national convener and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal. (PTI Photo)

For a first timer, AAP won 27 seats, a vote share of 28%, in the Surat civic body, replacing Congress as the main opposition party as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) retained its top spot with 93 seats (out of the total 110).

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But in this year’s Gujarat assembly polls, the BJP is poised for a historic win with more than 150 seats, while the Congress is trailing by around 20 seats, and AAP is likely to secure only 5. The outcome is similar to another civic body poll – Gandhinagar – in October 2021.

BJP had its worst performance in the last 25 years when it won 99 seats out of the total 182 in 2017, with the Congress bagging 77, its best in the last two-and-half decades.

The BJP won 17 seats in the Gandhinagar municipality, one more than the Congress, out of the total 44 in the 2016 civic polls. In 2021, AAP got a vote share of 18% in Gandhinagar, winning only one seat. The BJP swept with 41 seats, while the Congress was reduced to two. The Congress’ vote share, which was at 46.93% in 2016, fell to 27.97%.

Today, a similar trend has emerged in the Gujarat assembly polls, the big difference being a towering vote share for BJP at 54%, up from 49.4% five years ago

AAP, which was aiming to replace the Congress as the main opposition party in Gujarat, failed not just to do so, but also in positioning themself as a strong third front.

Also Read:Gujarat Election Results 2022 LIVE

However, the ruling party in Delhi and Punjab did celebrate its performance in Gujarat as now it qualifies to become a national party having got 13% vote share; it required 6%.

“Unlike the BJP, AAP does not have a strong cadre at the grassroots level in Gujarat. Their presence was mainly on social media. Also, they failed to effectively raise any issue against the ruling BJP. Kejriwal, even in his speeches, mainly targeted the Congress, alleging that the ‘grand old party’ has been decimated in Gujarat. It showed that the main target of AAP was Congress and not BJP,” political analyst Ghanshyam Shah said.

Notably, this is not the first time AAP contested in Gujarat elections. In 2017, the party enrolled about 4 lakh supporters in its membership drive, but decided not to contest polls as it didn’t think the time was right. However, some AAP leaders went ahead and contested in their individual capacity. They fared poorly, most of them even losing their security deposits.

The DNA of Gujarat politics

Gujarat has been a bipartite state where the BJP and Congress have been seen as the only real contenders for the past three decades. The perceptions have not changed even now, as the Congress continues to remain the main opposition party with around 20 seats.

Even historically, since the formation of Gujarat on May 1, 1960, the political narrative of the state has been scripted by these two political parties, leaving very little scope for a third front.

AAP was trying to make an impact with about 40 seats, especially in Saurashtra and south Gujarat. But clearly the ‘Kejriwal wave’ did not stand a chance against the one of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, despite AAP poking deep into the Morbi wounds and offering their tried and tested ‘politics of freebies’.

The party made promises of free electricity, quality education, stipend for the unemployed and implementation of the old pension scheme (OPS), among others. But nothing could stop even AAP chief ministerial candidate Isudan Gadhvi and state party chief Gopal Italia from losing their respective seats.

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