NDA allies contesting separately could pose trouble for BJP in Manipur
The relationship between NPP and BJP hasn’t been the smoothest in the past five years and in the run up to polling on February 28 and March 5, the party has accused the BJP of using militant groups to attack its candidates and workers. It has also filed a complaint with the Election Commission to probe the violence.
Five years after supporting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to form its first government in Manipur, the National Peoples’ Party (NPP) and Naga Peoples’ Front (NPF) -- both partners in the ruling coalition-- are contesting the upcoming polls in the state independently.
Contrary to expectations that the ruling partners could forge a pre-poll alliance for another term in power, all allies, who are also part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at the Centre, are appealing to voters separately. Another NDA ally, Janata Dal (United), is also contesting alone in Manipur.
In 2017, BJP had come second with 21 seats while Congress secured 28 in the 60-member assembly. But the saffron party was able to form the government with support from four legislators each from NPP and NPF, one from the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and a Congress defector.
NPP, which is heading the government in Meghalaya (where BJP is a partner), was the first party to indicate that instead of a pre-poll alliance it would contest the Manipur polls alone. Party president and Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma made that announcement at Imphal in September last year.
The relationship between NPP and BJP hasn’t been the smoothest in the past five years and in the run up to polling on February 28 and March 5, the party has accused the BJP of using militant groups to attack its candidates and workers. It has also filed a complaint with the Election Commission to probe the violence.
“Any force using fear will not triumph. The people have seen it all and they will decide,” Sangma stated on February 20, a day after father of NPP candidate from Andro, Lourembam Sanjoy, was shot at by unidentified miscreants. Sanjoy alleged the attack was carried out by BJP candidate Th Shyamkumar.
NPP is contesting 38 of the total 60 seats and the party hopes to again play the role of kingmaker post March 10 when results are announced.
Another ruling partner in Manipur, NPF, which has a strong presence in the hill districts where people from Naga tribes are dominant, is also fighting the polls alone. The party, which had won 4 seats in 2017, is contesting from 10 seats this time.
Like NPP, NPF also had a rocky association with the BJP-led government in Manipur. In May 2019, the party had threatened to pull out of the government accusing the larger party of not paying heeds to its ideas. NPF is part of the National Democratic Political Party (NDPP)-led opposition-less government in Nagaland in which BJP is also a partner.
Another NDA constituent going alone in Manipur is JD (U). Not in the reckoning till few weeks back, but now armed with rebels from other parties and with candidates in 38 of the total 60 seats, JD (U) plans to turn things around.
The party had contested the 2000 assembly polls and won 1 seat. It however failed to replicate that win in successive elections and didn’t field any candidate in 2017. The JD (U) had a pleasant surprise ahead of the polls in Manipur this time with a dozen sitting and former MLAs from BJP and Congress joining it.
“We are confident of winning at least 10-12 seats. Our party doesn’t have any pre-poll understanding with anyone including BJP and we are open about a post-poll alliance. JD (U) would act as a pressure group and go along with those who work for the people of Manipur,” said JD (U) national general secretary in-charge of northeast, Afaque Ahmed Khan.
Political experts believe that its allies contesting independently could hurt BJP. Problems in allocation of tickets and differences with coalition partners could benefit Congress or most likely lead to a hung assembly with no party getting reaching the majority mark of 31.
“With its partners contesting independently, BJP vote share could get divided and in turn help NPP and Congress. The JD (U) would also cut into BJP’s vote share in seats where it is contesting. Only NPF will probably want to be with BJP (after results are out),” said senior journalist Pradip Phanjoubam.
While BJP is claiming it would get 40 seats on its own and form government without support of anyone, experts say reaching that figure doesn’t look likely for the party in power.
“BJP’s allies are contesting independently as they have become quite strong on their own. NPP will be the dark horse of this election and JD (U), despite being new, would emerge as a force to reckon with. The contest is very wide open and no party would get majority on its own,” said Prof. Amar Yumnam, noted economist and political commentator.
“Many might believe that BJP’s allies would join them after results are out. One can’t be sure of that as these parties will not allow themselves to be dictated. BJP’s problems started with allotment of tickets (when it gave 11 tickets to former Congress MLAs) and it could be the biggest loser,” he added.
