Dunki vs Salaar box office prediction: Should we expect a desi Barbenheimer? Experts weigh in

Salaar will release a day after Dunki releases in theatres on Thursday. Here's how much the two films can make on their opening day.

Shah Rukh Khan's Dunki and Prabhas' Salaar have ignited anticipation among Indian audiences, wondering if before the end of 2023, they will get to witness a desi cinematic spectacle rivaling the Barbenheimer. The filmmakers are keeping their fingers crossed and film trade pundits are closely scrutinizing the current advance booking trends and the craze of the theatre-going audience to assess the scenario. While some have raised concern over the not so fair distribution of screens, many are making wild guesses that the two films may divide the country over choice - with the North favoring Shah Rukh Khan and the South leaning towards Prabhas' action-packed extravaganza.

Shah Rukh Khan in a still from Dunki and Prabhas in a still from Salaar.

Will Dunki open bigger in Hindi than Salaar

A glance at the current advance booking figures reveals a slight advantage for Dunki with tickets worth around ₹7.5 crore being sold for the opening day. Prashanth Neel's Salaar is, however, not far behind at ₹6.5 crore. Girish Johar, a producer and film business expert, anticipates Dunki to open in the range of ₹35-40 crore on Thursday and Salaar to record an opening figure of ₹25 crore on Friday.

Johar notes, “Both Dunki and Salaar have their huge fan following. I believe it can be a Barbenheimer kind of position wherein both the films do well. The good part is that both the films have different target audiences and geographical regions. Salaar has a lot of mass action, it will be favoured more down South; whereas Dunki is more urban, Metro phenomenon. I am expecting women and families to drive down the front-end ticket sales.”

“Yes, there is an opportunity, if both films are good, both of them can do well at the box office. I am expecting 2023 to close at a double bonanza with both these films,” he adds optimistically.

Dunki and Salaar to divide the nation?

Film trade analyst Komal Nahta suggests a potential regional divide over the two films. “In non-southern states, Dunki has a big edge over Salaar because SRK has had a great run this year and also because Rajkumar Hirani is one of the topmost directors of Bollywood. Down South, Prabhas is a name to behold so the scales may be tilted in his favour,” he said.

Film exhibitor Akkshay Rathi also echoed the views. Differentiating between the two, he said, “Dunki and Salaar are both very exciting films and the good thing for all of us in the entertainment field, especially the exhibition sector is that both these films cater to very different demographics when it comes to their core target base. Dunki is for more evolved audience, I expect it do phenomenally well in the urban India and multiplexes. Salaar is a film which is all about tier 2, tier 3, single screens. All of us aspire for a scenario where every week we have some content for every demographic of audience. And between Salaar, Dunki, Aquaman and others, I think it will be a terrific Christmas week."

Sharing his expectations from the two major releases, he said, "When it comes to opening numbers, Dunki should open in Hindi at somewhere around ₹30-35 crore. It's a Rajkumar Hirani film and his films are not really known for opening big but they always grow from strength to strength and have a long run. Salaar can record a huge figure in Telugu but in Hindi, it can open somewhere around ₹15-18 crore."

Salaar to open bigger than Dunki abroad?

In the United States, Salaar boasts a stronger advance booking status compared to Dunki, with Salaar crossing $1.2 million while Dunki trails at $267K, as reported by film trade analyst Manobala Vijayabalan on Twitter.

However, Vijayabalan expresses disappointment at the apparent disparity in screen allocation, tweeting, “SHOCKING to know that very less screens have been allocated for #Salaar in North India compared to huge number of screens for #Dunki. Fair play is missing in the clash.”

Salaar revolves around two friends Deva and Vardha, played by Prabhas and Prithviraj Sukumaran, respectively, who end up becoming arch rivals. On the other hand, Dunki is a dramedy film based on an illegal immigration.

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