April 2024 warmest since 1940; eleventh month in a row that is warmest: Report
Eastern and northeastern India experienced their warmest April on record in terms of both mean and night temperatures,
April 2024 was the warmest April globally since at least 1940, and the 11th month in a row when temperatures records were shattered in a grim reminder of the runaway crisis global warming appears to have become.
According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, the average surface air temperature in April was 15.0ۜ3°C, which was 0.67°C above the 1991-2020 average for April and 0.14°C higher than the previous record set in April 2016.
The month was 1.58°C warmer than the estimated April average in the 1850-1900, the pre-industrial reference period, surpassing the 1.5-degree threshold that experts had said would be devastating for the world if it becomes the new baseline.
Global average temperatures for the past 12 months (May 2023 – April 2024) are the highest on record, at 0.73C° above the 1991-2020 average and 1.61°C above pre-industrial levels, having breached the 1.5-degree C threshold that experts say is also due to the effects of a strong El Nino --- the cyclical warming of the equatorial pacific, which has a cascading impact on global weather.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) clarified that temporarily exceeding the 1.5-degree C threshold does not mean permanently breaching the Paris Agreement goal, which refers to long-term warming over many years.
In India, most parts of the peninsula recorded above-normal temperatures in April, with some patches in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal ranking among the warmest globally, according to the ERA 5 dataset of the Copernicus centre.
Despite normal to below-normal temperatures in northwest India, extreme heat in the rest of the country, particularly in the east and south, made this April the eighth-warmest since 1901, with a mean temperature of 29.06°C, 0.76°C above normal.
Eastern and northeastern India experienced their warmest April on record in terms of both mean and night temperatures, with minimum temperatures 1.78°C above normal and mean temperatures 2°C above normal, according to updated analysis by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
South Peninsular India had its second-warmest April since 1901, with average maximum temperatures 1.35°C above normal, minimum temperatures 1.09°C above normal, and mean temperatures 1.22°C above normal.
In Europe, April 2024 was the second-warmest on record, with an average temperature 1.49°C above the 1991-2020 average, particularly in eastern regions.
Temperatures were also significantly above average in northern and northeastern North America, Greenland, eastern Asia, northwestern Middle East, parts of South America, and most of Africa, despite weakening El Niño conditions.
The global sea surface temperature (SST) 21.04°C in April 2024, the highest value on record for the month and only slightly lower than the 21.07°C recorded in March 2024. This marks the 13th consecutive month of record-warm SSTs.
Marine heatwaves starting in October 2023 have caused widespread coral bleaching in the Lakshadweep Sea, with some experts estimating damage to around 75% of the corals, according to the ICAR-Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute (CMFRI).
As El Niño weakens and La Niña sets in, temperatures are expected to gradually cool down, but warming trends may persist even during La Niña years, according to M Mohapatra, director general of IMD, and M Rajeevan, former secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
The recent La Niña, which ended earlier last year, was relatively weak but unusually prolonged, lasting from 2020 to early 2023. The 2023-24 El Niño, which developed in June 2023, has peaked as one of the five strongest on record and is expected to have the greatest impact on global climate in 2024.
IMD has forecast “above normal” monsoon rainfall over India between June and September at 106% of the long-period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. Heat wave to severe heat wave conditions have impacted Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, and Rayalaseema from mid-April, with a fresh heat wave spell likely over Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh until May 10.
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