Explained: What Modi's ‘net zero by 2070’ pledge at COP26 means for climate
Despite being a developing nation with a large population base, India has showcased commendable leadership in augmenting the economy-wide carbon intensity reduction target from 33-35% to 45% by 2030.
Earlier this week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged at the COP26 UN climate conference in Glasgow that India will achieve net-zero emissions by 2070.
Speaking at the ‘High-Level Segment for Heads of State and Government’ during the UNFCCC’s 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) in Glasgow, the Indian Prime Minister also announced that the country would make one billion-tonne reduction in projected emissions from now until 2030.
Ramping up India's fight against climate change and global warming, Modi also announced several ambitious targets for the country.
Clean energy goals
He enhanced India’s target for installed renewable energy capacity by 2030 from 450GW to 500GW, and also said that 50% of India's total electricity would be generated from renewable energy sources by 2030 – an increase of 10% from the earlier target of 40%.
Calling the targets the “gift of five elixirs” (panchamrit), Modi also said That India's emissions intensity, or emissions per unit GDP, will be reduced by at least 45% by 2030 from the 2005 levels. In its existing target, India had promised to reduce its emissions intensity by 33% to 35% by the set deadline.
Aarti Khosla, the director of Climate Trends, outlined that the commitment of 500GW of renewable energy by 2030, which is more than twice the installed capacity of coal currently, should set the stage for a quick transformation of the energy sector, “the kind of which hasn’t been witnessed so far."
"Ensuring that the new energy regime doesn’t bring the pitfalls of the current regime will be fundamental. Solar and wind are poised to emerge as the future in the net-zero world, Khosla added.
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Delivering a strong message to the world, Modi stressed India expected developed countries “to make $1 trillion available as climate finance as soon as possible”. “Today, as we track the progress on climate mitigation, the same way we must track climate finance,” the Prime Minister said.
Ajay Mathur, the director-general of International Solar Alliance said Modi cut through the rhetoric and delivered a big promise of climate action from India.
“Reducing 1billion tonnes of emissions by 2030 and expanding non-fossil capacity to 500 GW are enormous and transformative steps. 50% of electricity generation from renewable energy sources speaks to India's leadership and commitment to climate action. The Prime Minister has made bold announcements and led India from the front at the onset of the Glasgow meeting,” Mathur added.
During his speech on India's 75th Independence Day this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had also announced the country's plan to become a net-zero carbon emitter by 2050 and highlighted that work was underway for 100% electrification of Indian Railways.
Feasibility of India's action
India’s announcement of 500GW of non-fossil based electricity capacity by 2030 is in line with its domestic commitment for 450GW of renewable energy capacity by end of the decade.
According to the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), projections for India’s total installed power generation capacity by 2029-30, India will have 817GW of installed capacity out of which 525GW can be met by non-fossil based electricity capacity.
By this estimate, the projection is reasonably high and achievable according to Modi’s announcements. This new target translates to two-thirds of India’s installed capacity in 2030 and sets an ambitious goal from the current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) which accounted for 40% of non-fossil fuels in India’s energy mix.
The expected electricity demand in 2030 is around 2,325 billion units (BUs) and out of this 1,150 BUs is expected to be met through renewable energy. The current electricity requirement in 2021-22 is 1566 BUs. The new 50% target of electricity generated by solar, wind and hydropower is more ambitious than what would be achieved solely through market factors and falling prices of renewable energy. Massive support and push from the policy level are required for carbon-free electricity standards, investments in ramping up storage capacity, improving the health of power distribution companies, grid stability, net metering, etc.
An analysis by the Council for Energy Environment and Water (CEEW) show the enhanced NDC targets are compatible with the 2070 net-zero target.
Vaibhav Chaturvedi, a fellow at Council for Energy Environment and Water (CEEW) said, “India's ambitious domestic 450 GW RE target has now been communicated as the 500 GW non-fossil electricity target at the international stage. It is certain that this target will bend the emissions curve, though it still would be rising for at least the next two decades due to a fast-growing economy."
“India intends to continue to do more than its fair share on climate action. At the global level, however, the collective net-zero targets might not be 1.5 degrees Celsius compatible. Science demands that cumulative global emissions between 2020 and 2100 are limited to 400-500 GtCO2. Given their net-zero targets, the cumulative emissions of China, the US and the European Union between 2020 and 2050 will together corner over 90% of global carbon space available for achieving the 1.5 degress Celsius target. The burden of action now lies on the developed world to prepone their net-zero pledges to ensure a 1.5 Deg compatible world.” Chaturvedi explained.
Emissions intensity target commendable
Despite being a developing nation with a large population base, India has showcased commendable leadership in augmenting the economy-wide carbon intensity reduction target from 33-35% to 45% by 2030.
As of 2016, India had already achieved an emission intensity to GDP of 23% (this estimate excludes the agriculture sector), as reported in the BUR-III submitted by India to the UNFCCC. The emissions intensity of the Indian economy has been steadily declining due to more renewable energy, improved energy efficiency, and structural shifts towards the services sector.
The new target does not give details but is consistent with the ongoing trend and with the other targets announced by the Prime Minister. Going from the earlier emissions intensity target of 33-35% to the new target of 45% translates to around 1 billion tonnes of emissions reduction.
India is currently the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, releasing more than 3 billion tonnes every year. According to the World Resources Institute database, India’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2018 was about 3.3 billion tonnes, up from 2.5 billion tonnes in 2010. At this rate, India’s projected emissions between now and 2030 could be in the range of 30-32 billion tonnes.
With Modi's announcement to reduce 1 billion tonnes in cumulative emissions by 2030, it is the first time the country has given an absolute emission reduction target. Earlier, the closest reference to altering its emissions trajectory used to be in the form of emissions intensity. Under the international climate change framework, only developed countries are mandated, and expected, to make reductions in their absolute emissions.
This translates to an economy-wide absolute emission reduction of 3% for the period of 2005 to 2030, which again for a developing country is very ambitious according to Vasudha Foundation.
The Energy Policy Simulator for India estimates that India’s emissions could grow from 3.3 billion tonnes in 2021 to reach 4.6 billion tonnes in 2030 (excluding land use and forestry) based on current policy and actions in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and electric mobility, and cost-optimisation of technologies in the electricity and transport sectors.
Pathway to net-zero
Earlier this year, Union minister Piyush Goyal set an ambitious target of turning the Indian Railways into the world’s first net-zero carbon emitter by 2030. The minister had issued directives to railways to identify huge areas of unproductive land for setting up solar power plants to generate electricity for the national transporter.
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India is counted as one of the progressive climate champions. Even though India’s historic contribution to the climate crisis is a fraction of what developed economies, India has always shouldered more than its fair share. By announcing net-zero by 2070, India continues to demonstrate its commitments towards addressing the climate crisis.
“By announcing a commitment for achieving net-zero targets by 2070, India has responded positively to the global call and it was the best climate action in Glasgow today,” Aarti Khosla said.
According to the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C, pathways with higher chances of holding warming to below 1.5°C generally show a faster decline in the carbon intensity of electricity by 2030 than pathways that temporarily overshoot 1.5°C. By 2050, the share of electricity supplied by renewables increase to 59–97% (minimum-maximum range) across 1.5°C pathways with no or limited overshoot (High Confidence). As per IPCC’s estimates, the world must become a ‘net-zero’ carbon emitter by 2050 to meet the 1.5°C-goal, and to achieve this, total greenhouse gas emissions need to reach zero between 2063 and 2068.
India will need to focus on all greenhouse gas emissions and not just emissions from energy and industrial processes to stay within 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming. It would need to counter emissions from agriculture and land use as well. If these efforts are combined, it would be very ambitious and more than India’s fair contribution to global efforts.