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Ecostani | El Nino responsible for record low Himalayan snow, experts worry this could affect India’s economic growth

Jan 22, 2024 05:13 PM IST

Warm winters are known to favour rain over snow, increase snowmelt and reduce snow cover, which can have implications for water security and wider ecosystems

Between December 2023 and the early days of January, Zojila Pass – which connects Kashmir with Ladakh and is an important logistical supply chain for troops in Ladakh – received just seven to eight feet of snow as compared to the 40-30 feet it usually receives in that period. Till mid-January, Gulmarg, a popular skiing destination in Jammu and Kashmir, barely received an inch of snow; the same was the case with Auli, a skiing destination in Uttarakhand; Kufri, the popular tourist destination in Himachal’s Shimla, was without much snow cover; and Kedarnath and Badrinath, the two Hindu pilgrimage sites in Uttarakhand, too, were missing their seasonal white cover.

Kashmir, India - January. 08, 2024: A snowless Gulmarg in North Kashmir on Monday which otherwise used to be bustling with skiers and adventurers at this time of the year. The valley this winter has received scant snowfall for the month of December and first week of January.(Photo By Waseem Andrabi /Hindustan Times)-- PREMIUM
Kashmir, India - January. 08, 2024: A snowless Gulmarg in North Kashmir on Monday which otherwise used to be bustling with skiers and adventurers at this time of the year. The valley this winter has received scant snowfall for the month of December and first week of January.(Photo By Waseem Andrabi /Hindustan Times)--

The northwestern Himalayas have received almost no rain, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), making the 2023-24 winter one of the driest since 1901 — the farthest the IMD rainfall data goes. While Himachal and Jammu and Kashmir have the lowest recorded January snow/rainfall since 1901, Uttarakhand and Ladakh have seen lower records. Both states and Union territories have also recorded lower snow/rainfall in December since 1901 compared to 2023 — the IMD does not have separate data for rain and snowfall.

The coming days look equally bleak. The IMD has predicted almost no rain citing weak western disturbances and no cyclone circulation for the remaining days of January. By this time, Himalayan states usually received more than 80% of the season’s snowfall. Already, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), which described 2023 as the warmest on record, has predicted that this winter could be the warmest ever, attributing it to the El Nino effect and climate change.

The El Nino phenomenon occurs when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are higher than average in the eastern tropical Pacific, and there is a simultaneous weakening of trade winds resulting in the weakening of western disturbances that bring snow and rainfall to northwestern India. “The El Nino impact is much more pronounced this year as compared to previous years,” said IMD climate scientist DS Pai. He added that its impact is clearly visible on rainfall patterns in the entire northern India with “almost” no rain in the region since November 2023.

What’s the impact?

Not having adequate snow in the Himalayan region has a year-long impact on large parts. Lesser snow means a lower flow of glacial melt water during the summer months when there is a higher demand for water in plains for drinking and irrigation. It also affects the flow of seasonal fruits and vegetables in the summer months, which is an off-season for horticulture crops in the Indo-Gangetic plains of India.

Glaciologist and Himalayan researcher AN Dimri said if the Himalayan dry spell continues longer, it can have a huge cascading effect on socio-economic benefits. “If you don't get (enough) snow, you don't get replenishment of water, it will impact agriculture, your health and can, in turn, impact your economy,” he said.

Harish Chauhan, an apple farmer in Himachal Pradesh, said that water sources, which get replenished due to winter snow, are drying up in the state. “Many remote villages are facing drinking water issues already. I don’t know what would happen in warmer months if it does not snow,” he added.

The winter rain and snow are extremely important for the Himalayan region, as they provide ground moisture and the chilling period needed for the maturing of horticulture crops. “Without snow and chilling period, the buds, which transform into fruit, would be weak and would fall during the summer dry season,” said a horticulture scientist from YS Parmar Horticulture University in Solan, Himachal Pradesh.

The horticulture crops in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal and Uttarakhand, especially apples, apricots and pears, had failed in 2023 because of very little snow in the 2022-23 winter period and unseasonal cold wave in March and April followed by extremely high rainfall during monsoon months. “A crop failure for the second year would be a death knell for farmers,” Chauhan said.

Snow/rain decrease was foretold

What the Himalayan region has witnessed for the past few winters has been predicted in several studies. A new study published in Nature recently claimed that human-induced climate change has declined snowpack in the entire Northern Hemisphere by 10-20% between 1981 and 2020. Snowpack refers to the accumulated snow on the ground following snowfall and tends to not melt for a long time, owing to below-freezing temperatures.

Researchers said that warm winters are known to favour rain over snow, increase snowmelt and reduce snow cover, which can have implications for water security and wider ecosystems. The researchers from Dartmouth College, New Hampshire, US, examined the effects of climate warming on snow by combining observations of March snow mass levels in the Northern Hemisphere along with temperature and precipitation data.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its sixth assessment report had reported a decrease in snowfall in mountain areas because of changing precipitation patterns and elevated freezing levels. The freezing level, also known as the zero-degree isotherm, is the altitude at which falling precipitation transitions from snow to rain. Rising temperatures associated with global warming have caused the freezing level to rise, leading to more rain at higher altitudes that used to receive snowfall, the IPCC said.

Very poor snow and no rainfall in most parts of India in winter, experts say, could impact India’s economic growth for the financial year 2023-24, projected to be 7.3% as per the latest advance estimate of the National Statistical Organisation (NSO).

(With inputs from Abhishek Jha in New Delhi)

Chetan Chauhan is National Affairs Editor. A journalist for around three decades, he has written extensively on the social sector and politics with a special focus on the environment and political economy.

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