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Weather Bee: Third consecutive year of record low snow pack in December

Dec 20, 2024 05:35 PM IST

The impact of deficit precipitation is that the snow pack in India’s hilly regions in the north has reached a new low for this part of December.

Western disturbances, storms originating west of India and usually in the Mediterranean region, have kept at least daytime temperatures in India’s hilly states cool in December. However, this does not mean that the precipitation this month is above normal or even close to normal in these states. The insufficient precipitation has brought snow pack (or accumulated snow) in the hilly states to a new low for this part of the snow cycle, an HT analysis shows. This is worrying because the snow pack had already hit records lows in December in the past two years.

Houses covered in snow after the plains of Kashmir received the season's first snowfall after a long dry spell on December 12. (PTI Photo) PREMIUM
Houses covered in snow after the plains of Kashmir received the season's first snowfall after a long dry spell on December 12. (PTI Photo)

At least one of the four hilly states and UTs in the north – Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand – has received some precipitation on six of 20 days of December so far due to western disturbances, according to the gridded data of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This has kept maximum temperatures in northern India close to normal if not below it, since cloudy skies block sunlight. However, this must not be taken to understood that all is well with December weather in the hilly states, when people from the plains flock there to enjoy snowfall.

A comparison of 2024 precipitation (IMD does not clarify if this is snow or rain) with the 1970-2020 average – considered the Long Period Average or LPA by the IMD currently – shows that the total precipitation in all four regions is far below usual. None of the four states and UTs have received more than 2.4 mm of precipitation in the December so far, when the LPA is at least nine mm in each. Clearly, precipitation has a big deficit in December in these hilly regions.

The impact of deficit precipitation is that the snow pack in India’s hilly regions in the north has reached a new low for this part of December. Satellite data on snow cover is available from October 2000. This shows that the snow pack on December 18 was the third lowest, second lowest, and lowest in 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively. The average snow pack – measured in equivalent height of water or snow water equivalent (SWE) – on December 18 was 345.1 mm during the 2000-2019 period. In 2022, 2023, and 2024, the average SWE for the region was 289.9 mm, 280.2 mm, and 270.8 mm.

To be sure, as the accompanying chart shows, this is only the beginning of the snow cycle, which starts in October, peaks around April, and then ends around September. This means that there is plenty of time for snow pack to build. This happened to some degree in 2023-24 when there were sudden jumps in the snow pack late in the cycle. However, sudden jumps in snow pack, which can happen with only sudden and large amount of snowfall; meant avalanches, landslides, and mudslides. The late improvement also did not help in building the snow pack up to past averages.

Another caveat to keep in mind while reading the analysis above is that the statistics are average for a region that goes somewhat beyond the political boundaries of India. The snow pack within India’s political boundaries could be worse. As the accompanying map shows, some of the region analysed here has a surplus snow pack, but such regions of big surplus are largely outside India. Clearly, the winter-like experience brought by the western disturbances this December has not helped India’s snow pack much.

The snow pack within India’s political boundaries could be worse.
The snow pack within India’s political boundaries could be worse.
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