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China’s Medog Dam on the Brahmaputra: Renewable ambition or geopolitical gamble?

Jan 25, 2025 07:13 PM IST

This article is authored by Hriday Sarma, senior fellow, South Asia Democratic Forum, Brussels.

In December 2024, China unveiled plans for what could become the world’s largest hydropower project, the Medog Dam, on the lower Yarlung Zangbo River, known as the Brahmaputra in India. This announcement was far from unexpected. For years, the blueprint for this dam has been circulating through Chinese policy circles, think tanks, and five-year plans. However, the transition from concept to implementation is now raising eyebrows—and critical questions. Is this merely a testament to China’s growing ambitions, or are we witnessing the potential onset of a geopolitical storm?

Brahmaputra River Basin PREMIUM
Brahmaputra River Basin

China’s reasons for pursuing this colossal project are multifaceted, with official documents often emphasising three key priorities.

First, there’s Beijing’s drive to tackle the climate crisis through an aggressive shift toward renewable energy. President Xi Jinping’s 2020 pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 remains a central pillar of China’s energy strategy. Generating over 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, this dam is framed as essential for meeting that goal. It stands as a jewel in China’s renewable energy portfolio, complementing solar, wind, and nuclear power. For Beijing, hydropower is more than just energy—it’s a statement of its environmental commitment, particularly in regions like Tibet that have traditionally relied on smaller-scale projects.

Second, there is the question of Tibet itself. The Tibetan Plateau, an area of immense cultural and ecological significance, also represents a region that Beijing is eager to modernize and stabilize. The government’s 14th five-year plan highlights the Tibetan Economic Belt, emphasising high-tech industries, resource utilisation, and clean energy. The dam fits seamlessly into this vision, promising to drive economic growth and urbanisation. For China, infrastructure serves not only as a catalyst for economic development but also as a means of asserting control in politically sensitive regions.

Finally, there’s the strategic element. China views the dam as a means to maximise its utilisation of the river’s resources before the waters flow into neighbouring countries like India and Bangladesh. With no transboundary water-sharing agreements in place, this approach highlights Beijing’s policy of acting decisively to secure its own interests. Reports from Chinese think tanks openly emphasise the need to outpace downstream hydropower competitors and address the growing water scarcity in Asia.

On paper, the project seems to align perfectly with China’s ambitions. But reality is rarely so simple.

The Yarlung Zangbo’s unique geography is both a blessing and a curse. Its steep gradients offer unparalleled potential for hydropower but also place the proposed dam in a region of heavy tectonic activity. The seismic risks are well-documented, and while Chinese authorities assure that decades of geological surveys have deemed the site safe, experts caution that even a minor miscalculation could lead to catastrophic failures. And this isn’t just about China—downstream nations like India and Bangladesh would bear the brunt of any disaster.

Compounding these concerns is China’s longstanding reluctance to engage in meaningful dialogue with its neighbours on water management. While Beijing does share limited flood-season data with India, the lack of comprehensive agreements fuels mistrust. For India, the Brahmaputra is a lifeline for millions, particularly in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, where sudden water releases or prolonged retention could have devastating consequences. For Bangladesh, changes in sediment flow could disrupt agriculture and livelihoods in ways that no nation can afford to ignore.

Not all voices in China agree with the government’s approach. Some researchers have warned that unilateral mega-projects on shared rivers could backfire environmentally and diplomatically. A 2022 Tsinghua University report called for transparency and cooperation to ensure regional stability, but such advice remains overlooked, highlighting the gap between academia and policy.

India, for its part, is not standing idly by. Its dam-building initiatives in Arunachal Pradesh are a clear response to China’s actions. But this tit-for-tat approach risks escalating tensions rather than resolving them. Without a shared vision for the river’s future, the Brahmaputra could become less a source of life and more a battleground.

The stakes couldn’t be higher than they are now. Water security, already strained by the climate crisis and unchecked development, is a growing challenge of our time. The Brahmaputra’s future will shape not just the lives of those along its banks but the stability of South Asia as a whole. Global institutions like the United Nations must act now to foster dialogue and prevent a hydro-political crisis.

This isn’t just a story about dams—it’s about choices. China has a chance to make the Yarlung Zangbo a symbol of shared progress. But unilateralism could bring dire consequences. More than just a river, the Brahmaputra is a lifeline for millions. Its management today will define the region’s future. Will China seize the moment to collaborate?

This article is authored by Hriday Sarma, senior fellow, South Asia Democratic Forum, Brussels.

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