China’s prospects in Afghanistan: Opportunities and adversities - Hindustan Times
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China’s prospects in Afghanistan: Opportunities and adversities

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Feb 18, 2022 04:51 PM IST

The piece is authored by Ashu Maan

The United States (US) invaded Taliban-run Afghanistan in the wake of the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and The Pentagon in Virginia. After staying in the country for 20 years resulting in 2,448 deaths of American service members and 3,846, military contractors until April 2021, the US has pulled back from Afghanistan and the Taliban is back in power in Kabul. Amid the US troop pullout, the Taliban takeover, and the ensuing chaos in Afghanistan most countries started to evacuate their citizens and embassies, but there were exceptions in the name of China, Russia, and Pakistan whose embassies continued to function as normal. This article aims to analyse China’s interests in post-American Afghanistan through the lens of economic, political, and security interests.

The United States (US) invaded Taliban-run Afghanistan in the wake of the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and The Pentagon in Virginia. (PTI FILE)
The United States (US) invaded Taliban-run Afghanistan in the wake of the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and The Pentagon in Virginia. (PTI FILE)

China has an extensive history of engagements with the Taliban pre- and post-2001. The first point of contact between China and the Taliban was in 1998 when the Taliban sold China a Tomahawk missile that landed in its territory in a US strike. In December 2000, the Chinese ambassador to Pakistan, Lu Shulin, travelled to Kandahar to meet Mullah Omar where Omar assured the ambassador that the “Taliban would not allow any group to use its territory” to conduct operations against China. With the US presence in Afghanistan, China faced a double-edged sword. On the one hand, in case of US victory, China feared the United States will build permanent bases in Afghanistan and Central Asia which would lead to the United States encircling China as the US already had a military presence to the east of China in Japan and South Korea and Guam in the South-East. But, on the other hand, if the United States failed to curb the Taliban insurgency, there was a real possibility of groups like ETIM and Turkestan Islamic Party getting active in Xinjiang and reinvigorating the separatist movement which had intensified in the first decade of the 21st century.

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The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan was formed in 2004 in the aftermath of the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 and the overthrow of the Taliban. After overthrowing the Taliban, Afghanistan’s interim Administration was formed under Hamid Karzai, and United Nations Security Council formed the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to provide security to the Karzai administration (UNSC, 2001). After the September 11 attacks, Beijing permitted the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) to open a Beijing office in 2002 to enhance anti-terrorism cooperation with the US. Meanwhile, China refused to participate in any international military presence in Afghanistan and did not allow coalition forces to operate out of Chinese bases or airspace. China’s actions may have stemmed from their assessment of the effect of their military presence in Afghanistan. Engaging militarily against the Taliban could’ve led to the Taliban providing refuge, training, and weapons to Uyghur separatists that could have flared up the already worsening situation in Xinjiang. China initially followed a policy of non-intervention vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (henceforth Afghanistan) and its engagement with Afghanistan was mostly aid. China allocated US $4 million of humanitarian aid for Afghanistan in 2001 followed by an additional  $1 million at the Tokyo donor conference in 2002. In the same year, China announced an aid package amounting to the US $ 150 million  In December 2002, China along with other countries bordering Afghanistan i.e., Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) signed the Declaration on Good-Neighborly Relations (UNSC, Afghanistan Good Neighborly Relations Declaration, 2002). In 2012 China and Afghanistan signed a joint declaration on establishing the Strategic and Cooperative Partnership. The stated aim of the joint declaration was peaceful co-existence, in line with the purpose and principles of the Charter of the United Nations, international law, and the principles enshrined in the 2006 Treaty of Good Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation.

With the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan on Aug 20, 2021, China started maintaining its economic relations with Afghanistan as Beijing immediate concerns regarding the Taliban is its internal security pertaining to Xinjiang. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi hosted a Taliban delegation led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar (head of the Afghan Taliban Commission) on July 28, 2021, in Tianjin. The Chinese foreign ministry readout regarding the meeting stressed on the Chinese principle of respecting Afghanistan’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity. The readout also stated that China has adhered to non-interference in Afghanistan’s internal matter. Along with the usual discussions Minister Wang Yi also talked about China’s internal security. China also faces external security threats due to the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban. These threats affect China’s economic interests in Pakistan and Central Asia and emanate from Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP) Pakistan (also called Pakistan Taliban) in Pakistan and from Turkestan Islamic Party, ETIM, and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan which has ties to TTP. 

Chinese economic as well as political interests in Afghanistan concerns as China already has two significant investments in Afghanistan: the Mes Aynak copper mine and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)’s 25-year contract for oil extraction in the Northern provinces of Farvab and Sar-e-Pol in the Amu Darva Basin. The status of both these projects is in limbo due to the prevailing unstable situation in Afghanistan. Similarly, China and Afghanistan share a narrow and rugged border. Connecting Afghanistan and China directly under the aegis of BRI may prove cumbersome. There are three passes between Afghanistan and China namely the Chalachigu valley, The Wakhjir pass, and the North Wakhjir (Tegermansu) pass. The passes pose extreme engineering and construction challenges to make viable for either road or railways. The Pamir Mountain range is unstable and prone to landslides and the Karakoram highway is regularly disrupted due to rock falls. Also, from October to March, winter render these passes inoperable due to extreme conditions. Developing the North Wakhijir pass is a possibility as the Chinese military has built an access road from the Karakorum Highway along an 80km route to within 6km of the border, where it becomes passable by smaller vehicles only. 

To realise its security and economic interests concerning Afghanistan, China needs a politically stable Afghanistan. Unfortunately, Afghanistan has a history of destabilization. Achieving political stability in Afghanistan might be easier said than done. The Pashtuns are inclined not to accept any form of strict authority, even at the cost of discord and insecurity. 

China and the US are currently in a great power competition which has been termed as ‘Cold War 2.0’ by many. But unlike the ‘Cold War’ both countries have more or less the same economic order i.e., ‘capitalism’ but both countries have conflicting political order i.e., Democracy and Authoritarian. As far as narrative goes the US failure in Afghanistan is a win for China and if China is successful in keeping Afghanistan politically stable along with economic and infrastructural development, it will be a big shot in the arm for China’s system of ‘model and governance’ as Li Haidong, professor at the Institute of International Relations at China Foreign Affairs University said “the idea and governance system of China which has proven to be more effective in handling crisis will be learned by more countries, and for the elites of the US and some western countries, this situation is embarrassing, painful and unacceptable.” 

In conclusion, China, in the current situation, is facing both opportunities and adversities in Afghanistan. On the one hand, if China can keep the Taliban together, it has substantial economic gains to achieve, and on the other hand, if the Taliban disintegrates and starts fighting, it may have a spillover effect in Xinjiang and BRI for China. The Taliban wants to rebuild Afghanistan and has openly called for China’s help for economic development, seeing as China is the only country capable of doing that in Afghanistan’s immediate neighborhood. But China can use its leverage over the Taliban to gain concessions in mining and exploration and persuading and if need be, coercing the Taliban to cut ties with terrorist organisations such as Al Qaeda and ETIM and not let its territory be used to perpetrate an attack on its territory.

The study can be accessed here 

(The piece is authored by Ashu Maan)

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