Interwoven alliances: Bilateral relations among Southeast Asian nations

This article is authored by Ananya Raj Kakoti and Gunwant Singh, scholars, international relations, Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Southeast Asia, a dynamic and diverse region comprising countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and more, stands at a crossroads of geopolitics, culture, and economics. Its strategic location, nestled between the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, has made it a focal point for international diplomacy and cooperation.

South-East Asia

Bilateral relations in Southeast Asia play a pivotal role in shaping the region's future. With multiple nations in close proximity, Southeast Asia has become a complex web of interactions, encompassing economic partnerships, security alliances, historical tensions, and shared aspirations. The significance of these bilateral relationships cannot be understated, as they have far-reaching implications for peace, stability, economic growth, and regional development.

This article will delve into the historical context, regional organisations, major players, and key challenges that define bilateral relations in Southeast Asia, offering insights into the complex interplay of interests and the role of diplomacy in this dynamic part of the world.

Bilateral relations in Southeast Asia are deeply rooted in a complex historical context. The region's history is marked by colonial legacies, World War II and the subsequent independence movements, the impact of the Cold War era, and the formation of ASEAN in 1967. Historical territorial disputes, especially in the South China Sea, further complicate contemporary relations. The historical movement of people, ideas, and cultures across Southeast Asia and with neighboring regions has also created lasting cultural ties. Additionally, economic interdependence and trade relationships developed historically, particularly in countries like Singapore, which was once a British trading post. All these historical factors continue to shape and influence modern diplomatic interactions in the region. Understanding this historical context is essential for comprehending the intricacies of modern-day bilateral relations in Southeast Asia, as it provides insight into the complexities, tensions, and cooperative efforts that have shaped the region.

The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), formed in 1967, is a pivotal regional organisation in Southeast Asia. Founded on principles of non-interference and consensus-based decision-making, it has been instrumental in conflict resolution within the region, mediating the Cambodian conflict and addressing South China Sea (SCS) disputes. Economically, ASEAN promotes regional integration through the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), facilitating trade and investment. The organisation also emphasises people-to-people ties, fostering greater understanding among member States through cultural exchange programs and educational initiatives. ASEAN's role extends beyond Southeast Asia, engaging with major global powers and contributing to regional stability and security.

While ASEAN has been successful in many aspects of promoting cooperation and resolving conflicts in Southeast Asia, challenges persist, especially in addressing complex issues like territorial disputes. Nevertheless, the organisation continues to be a cornerstone of regional diplomacy, fostering dialogue and understanding among its member states.

Economic ties in Southeast Asia are pivotal to regional cooperation and growth. Trade agreements and the AEC have facilitated intra-regional trade, reducing barriers and boosting economic integration. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has left a significant footprint in the region, fostering connectivity but raising concerns. Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into infrastructure, manufacturing, and technology sectors, with Southeast Asia serving as a crucial link in global supply chains. Economic imbalances persist among nations, with regional cooperation aiming to address development challenges. Initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) further deepen economic integration with major global partners. However, the region faces challenges, including the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, trade tensions, and the climate crisis, highlighting the importance of economic collaboration.

Economic ties in Southeast Asia are multifaceted, impacting the development and stability of the region. As countries continue to work together on trade agreements, investment projects, and economic integration initiatives, the economic landscape of Southeast Asia remains dynamic and interconnected with the global economy.

The future outlook of bilateral relations in Southeast Asia is marked by several key trends and challenges. Great power competition, particularly between the United States and China, will influence regional dynamics. Territorial disputes in the South China Sea may persist as sources of tension, with peaceful dispute management and progress on a Code of Conduct (COC) being essential for stability. The AEC and regional integration efforts will continue to shape the economic landscape, positioning Southeast Asian nations as major players in global trade and supply chains. Emerging powers like India and Indonesia are set to play more substantial roles in the region, serving as potential counterbalances to China's influence. Infrastructure projects, particularly associated with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), will impact the region's economic development, necessitating careful management. Non-traditional security challenges, environmental sustainability, and bilateral and multilateral diplomacy will also be central aspects of Southeast Asia's future bilateral relations.

In Southeast Asia, the 10 ASEAN countries maintain a web of bilateral relations shaped by historical, geographical, and economic factors. Vietnam and Cambodia share a complex history, working together to address border disputes and promote economic ties. Malaysia and Indonesia, as two major Muslim-majority nations, cooperate on issues related to Islamic affairs, trade, and tourism. Thailand and Myanmar have a long history of economic cooperation, particularly in trade and investment, with Thailand as one of Myanmar's largest trading partners.

Singapore and Malaysia have developed a close economic relationship despite historical tensions, interconnected through trade, investments, and infrastructure projects. Indonesia and Singapore maintain a strong economic partnership with extensive trade and investment ties, collaborating on environmental and security issues and Thailand share a long border and collaborate on infrastructure projects, tourism, and labor migration.

Brunei and Malaysia have a history of political and economic collaboration, particularly involving energy resources and cross-border projects, maintaining a strong partnership in ASEAN.

The Philippines and Vietnam cooperate on regional security, particularly concerning territorial disputes in the SCS, with shared interests in maintaining regional stability.

Cambodia and Thailand have had periods of tension over border disputes but engage in diplomatic dialogue to resolve these issues and enhance bilateral relations. Myanmar and Vietnam have built a partnership in trade and investment, both being members of the Greater Mekong Sub-region, promoting regional economic development and connectivity. These examples illustrate the diversity of these bilateral relationships and the collaborative efforts aimed at promoting peace, stability, and economic development within the region.

In conclusion, Southeast Asia's future as a region of strategic importance is marked by its central role in global affairs. The complex interplay of great power competition, territorial disputes, economic integration, the rise of emerging powers, infrastructure development, non-traditional security challenges, environmental sustainability, and diplomatic interactions all underscore its significance. Diplomatic finesse and multilateral cooperation are essential to navigate these multifaceted dynamics and ensure regional stability and development. However, it is imperative to stress that mere lip service is not enough; clearly defined, decisive action is required. As Southeast Asia continues to evolve and define its place on the global stage, its enduring importance will demand a collective commitment to addressing both the challenges and opportunities that the future holds with a resolute commitment to action over rhetoric.

This article is authored by Ananya Raj Kakoti and Gunwant Singh, scholars, international relations, Jawaharlal Nehru University.