The Macron bomb is short of explosive - Hindustan Times
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The Macron bomb is short of explosive

ByHindustan Times
Apr 24, 2023 10:18 AM IST

This article is authored by Tara Kartha, distinguished fellow, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi.

There’s trouble across the pond. The ‘pond’ is how the British refer to the Atlantic Ocean, only in this case that has to be translated into French, German, and perhaps other European languages. Europe is once again tired of being pushed around by the United States (US), and it’s certainly not the first time, nor likely to be the last as the fall out of one disastrous war after another hits the once enviable lives in European capitals.

French President Emmanuel Macron
French President Emmanuel Macron

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President Macron’s recent statements after a six-hour meeting with President Xi Jinping is now being hotly debated from Japan to Washington. Macron had dwelled on “the great risk” Europe faces in getting caught up in ‘crises that are not ours, which prevents it from building its strategic autonomy,…overcome with panic, we believe we are just America’s followers”. Worst of all at least in Washington’s view, he went on “The question Europeans need to answer … is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] on Taiwan? No”. The timing was unfortunate to say the least. Hours later, Beijing launched massive exercises around Taiwan, in reaction to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen’s ‘transit’ through America and a meeting with a US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Rather realistically, Macron also observed that when Europeans can’t resolve the crisis in Ukraine; they could hardly promise to be there for Taiwan. That is more than true. A leaked memo recently observed that a Division that Germany promised to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for 2025 – two years earlier than planned in response to Ukraine – cannot be realistically done. Neither will a second division promised for 2027.

Macron has been espousing autonomy for some time, with his speech in 2017 detailing his vision “for a joint intervention force, a joint defence budget and a joint doctrine for action. We need to encourage the swift creation of a European Defence Fund, permanent structured cooperation, and supplement them with a European intervention initiative that better integrates our armed forces at all stages.” He even wanted a common European intelligence academy, and to cap it all an ambition to make the Euro the heart of Europe’s economic power. But no one paid much attention to Macron’s autonomy lectures. Europe has ‘been there done that’ years go, but try searching for 'European Defence Initiative’ and all you’ll get is a page from Marvel. But it existed, beginning from a Franco-British summit in St-Malo in December 1998, and an unlikely coming together of actors to form a European Security and Defence Identity. The US blanched, and the Washington Post ran a headline ‘The End of NATO as We know it” in August 1999. The Treaty of Lisbon did create a mutual defence clause, and even deployed a ‘Eurocorps’ in Afghanistan for instance. But bureaucracy, politics, and finally the United Kingdom walking out of the European Union put paid to the idea. And the US did the smart thing. It simply absorbed the ESDI into NATO, even allowing it to share some capabilities. By 2022, an analytical paper noted that even the meaning of autonomy was still being debated. During this entire period however, the EU was enjoying unparalleled economic strength and internal peace. Both have since shifted hugely. And that is why Macron’s statements are being echoed elsewhere.

The statements by Macron were unusually quickly echoed by the European Council boss Charles Michel , when he said that the French politician’s position was not isolated among EU leaders, and that there was a growing shift. While supporting the ‘attachment’ to the US, he also observed that a blind support of the US position on all things as not possible. Remember Michel was the Belgian Prime Minister earlier. The visiting German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock, backed Macron during her visit; most unusually, the UK – which has been the most vociferous in its support of US policy on Ukraine, has joined Germany and France to offer Ukraine a pact that includes strong weapons aid, but without the Article 5 defence commitment that is fundamental to NATO, in a bid to get President Zelensky to open negotiations. Such a move would hardly have been made without some consensus among NATO partners, including the US. But that’s quite a different matter to publicly talking of an ‘autonomous’ policy for Europe. Meanwhile, Finland, who joined NATO on April 4, - a significant event overlooked by much of Asia – is building a fence across much of its 1340km border with Russia, the longest border between Russia and NATO. That’s going to take some defending, though this is said to be primarily against a pushing in of ‘refugees’ deliberately by Russia in an effort to destablise the country. The Bank of Finland which had earlier noted a thriving post-Covid resurgence, has cut growth 0.5% in 2023, and a possible pick up by 2024, - provided conditions improved – and did not rule out recession. Meanwhile, Sweden’s membership is being held up by Hungary, who is widely believed to be egged on by Turkey. Italy’s right wing coalition is having second thoughts of support to Ukraine, as inflation bites, and businessmen fighting to retain their profits. Italy has taken in some 171,000 Ukrainians. Meanwhile, everyone has had to increase defence expenditure across the board, even tiny Luxembourg – long a US demand, when President Trump even threatened to walk out of NATO. Well, that’s happening. Meanwhile the European Commission has given the ‘glad’ news that Europe is not expected to go into recession after all. Growth is likely to be a very uncertain 0.8 % per cent from earlier forecasts of 0.3 %. On April 11 by the International Monetary Fund confirmed that global growth could be as low as 2.8% this year, averaging 3% over the next five years, the worst medium-term outlook since 1990. Things are going to get worse, not better. No wonder then that Italy is asking India to play a key role in ending the war.

But there’s no doubt that Macron’s comments instigated divisions within Europe. The Dutch prime minister chose to call the US relations ‘essential’ during Macrons state visit, though he did back Europe becoming ‘a player and not a playing field’. Much of East Europe – also with a historically close ties to the US – hit back at the French President. Then there’s the reality mentioned by the German top diplomat who observed that "50% of global trade passes through the Taiwan Strait, 70% of semiconductors pass through the Taiwan Strait, so the free passage is in our economic interest as well." Europe cannot afford to sit by the sidelines should matters come to a head. Neither does it have the capacity to support such a war while Ukraine boils. The truth? Never was European unity needed more to push back against Washington’s adventurism, and never has it been seen less at a crucial moment. Europe could end this war if it chose. It won’t because it cant. Apart from being its largest trade partner, the fact is that the NATO experiment was built on US dominance to prevent any single European power from muscling up in a ‘Pax Americana’ that worked very well for Europe’s economic growth. The problem is that US policy is now reversing that, leading to Germany increasing its defence expenditure and its role, formerly neutral states once again on the front line, and Europe once again at war, though by proxy. This is not any kind of ‘Pax’ at all. It’s more like a lighted candle under a crate of explosives. A lot of people know that. But don’t hold your breath for a united Europe standing for peace. Not only will that never happen, it’s not really the solution. Don’t forget that Europe was the worst coloniser, with disastrous consequences, being faced even now in parts of Africa. India too remembers the colonisers and their greed. What is acutely needed is more sense in Washington, and a revisiting of the vision of statesmen like Dean Acheson who understood history and placed it in its proper context to make policy. Indeed, the world at large needs statesmen, and not the desk pounders and fist waving greedy philanderers now posing as leaders. That’s likely to be in short supply.

This article is authored by Tara Kartha, distinguished fellow, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi.

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