Treading a pragmatic path: Russia in Afghanistan after August 2021
This paper has been authored by Shivam Shekhawat.
After the United States (US) and its allies left Afghanistan in 2021, analysts expected Russia to fill the vacuum caused by the withdrawal. As far as Moscow itself is concerned, it would like to establish full diplomatic ties with the Taliban regime while it urges western countries to take accountability and fulfil their responsibilities towards the Afghan people. Indeed, Russia’s desire for security and regional hegemony compels it to selectively engage with the Taliban while hedging its bets in case of adverse developments. It is also conducting discussions with India on the threats related to terrorism and drug trafficking. Their long-term cooperation may be affected, however, by divergences in their engagement with the Taliban; the pressure of the Ukraine conflict on Moscow; and New Delhi’s relationship with Washington.
Moscow never viewed the two decades of US military presence in Afghanistan to be ideal. It had criticised what it perceived as US attempts to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries in the name of democracy, reiterating the counterproductivity of imposing “unnatural forms of governance and public life” on others.
As the Afghan republic collapsed, the Russian news agency, RIA, alleged that then president Ashraf Ghani had fled the country in a helicopter full of cash. According to the spokesperson for the Russian embassy, this image reflected the ‘disintegration’ of the republic and fed into Moscow’s aversion of the then Afghan government. While these claims were refuted a year later, Moscow did welcome the Taliban’s gains in certain northern areas, with the Special Representative for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, regarding the group’s advance as beneficial for the security of the Central Asian Republics (CARs).
The US’s military presence allowed Moscow a security blanket while it expanded its influence in other areas. In the initial decades of US presence in Afghanistan, Moscow supported the US’s counterterrorism initiatives. Putin viewed the War on Terror as the inevitable consequence of an increase in terror in the region; Russia contributed to the counter-narcotics and counter-terrorism efforts, shared intelligence and information, provided military aid to the Afghan special forces engaged in these efforts, and joined the Northern Distribution Network to facilitate the transport of equipment and supplies through its territory between 2008 and 2015. Senior Russian officials also expressed hope that western forces would not withdraw before the country stabilises, at least to an extent. Russia was also apprehensive of the Obama administration’s decision to drawdown western troops in the country in 2014. The barrier provided by the US curtailed the space available for the terrorist groups to act, easing pressures on the border. It also precluded Russia from taking a decision over a military involvement in the country. On the one hand, it rejoiced at the closure of the US Manas Transit system in Kyrgyzstan in 2015—which was Washington’s gateway to Afghanistan—and on the other, the foreign minister of Russia urged the international community and NATO to not abandon Afghanistan. Today, Russia continues to engage with the Taliban as it advocates for western States to take accountability for the humanitarian crisis and stabilise the country.
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This paper has been authored by Shivam Shekhawat.
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