5 out of 6 climate trackers show ’24 crossed 1.5°C mark
To be sure, Friday’s release does not come as a surprise. It has been known for some time that 2024 would breach the threshold mentioned in the Paris accord
The year 2024 was both the warmest year on record as well as the first year when the average global temperature broke the 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) threshold over pre-industrial level, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said on Friday.
According to WMO’s consolidated analysis of the six datasets, the global average surface temperature was 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. “Today’s assessment from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) proves yet again – global heating is a cold, hard fact,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in a statement.
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While the threshold is intact — scientists typically use a longer-term average to measure the warming — the number highlights that the world is either close or has passed a key tipping point as far as the climate crisis is concerned.
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“Individual years pushing past the 1.5 degree C limit do not mean the long-term goal is shot. It means we need to fight even harder to get on track. Blazing temperatures in 2024 require trail-blazing climate action in 2025,” Guterres said.
Five out of six global weather databases showed 2024 exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, with two — Berkeley Earth and ECMWF — showing the average to have crossed 1.6°C of warming last year.
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“Human-induced climate change remains the primary driver of extreme air and sea surface temperatures, while other factors, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), also contributed to the unusual temperatures observed during the year,” a statement from C3S said.
A study published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences found that ocean warming in 2024 played a key role in the record high temperatures. The ocean is the warmest it has ever been as recorded by humans, not only at the surface but also for the upper 2000 meters, according to the study led by Prof Lijing Cheng with the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
“Climate history is playing out before our eyes. We’ve had not just one or two record-breaking years, but a full ten-year series. This has been accompanied by devastating and extreme weather, rising sea levels and melting ice, all powered by record-breaking greenhouse gas levels due to human activities,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
It was also the hottest year for India since 1901 according to India Meteorological Department. Large parts of India were impacted by extreme heat since April which killed scores of people in northwest and east India.
The 2024 record is in keeping with the trend seen over the past decade.
Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate, ECMWF added in a statement: “Each year in the last decade is one of the ten warmest on record. We are now teetering on the edge of passing the 1.5ºC level defined in the Paris Agreement and the average of the last two years is already above this level. These high global temperatures, coupled with record global atmospheric water vapour levels in 2024, meant unprecedented heatwaves and heavy rainfall events, causing misery for millions of people.”
According to the ERA5 dataset used by ECMWF, the global average temperature of 15.1°C was 0.72°C above the 1991-2020 average, and 0.12°C above 2023, the previous warmest year on record. This is equivalent to 1.6°C above an estimate of the 1850-1900 temperature designated to be the pre-industrial level. Each of the past 10 years (2015–2024) was one of the 10 warmest years on record.
A new record high for daily global average temperature was reached on 22 July 2024, at 17.16°C. Last year was the warmest year for all continental regions, except Antarctica and Australasia, as well as for sizeable parts of the ocean, particularly the North Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and the western Pacific Ocean.
The total amount of water vapour in the atmosphere reached a record value in 2024, at about 5% above the 1991-2020 average, according to ERA5, more than 1% higher than in 2016 and 2023, the years with the previous highest and second highest values, respectively.
Extreme temperatures and high humidity contribute to increased levels of heat stress. Much of the Northern Hemisphere experienced more days than average with at least “strong heat stress” during 2024, and some areas saw more days than average with “extreme heat stress”.
The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane continued to increase and reached record annual levels in 2024, at 422 parts per million (ppm) and 1897 parts per billion (ppb), respectively. Carbon dioxide concentrations in 2024 were 2.9 ppm higher than in 2023, whereas methane concentrations were 3 ppb higher.
“This record needs to be a reality check. The climate is heating to levels we’ve spent years trying to avoid because countries are still burning huge amounts of oil, gas and coal. A year of extreme weather showed just how dangerous life is at 1.5°C. The Valencia floods, US hurricanes, Philippines typhoons and Amazon drought are just four disasters last year that were worsened by climate change. There are many, many more. The world doesn’t need to come up with a magical solution to stop things from getting worse in 2025. We know exactly what we need to do to transition away from fossil fuels, halt deforestation and make societies more resilient to the changes in the climate we see in so clearly in this report,” said Friederike Otto, Senior Lecturer at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London in a statement.
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