Bihar caste survey may set off political churn in state: Experts
Ninety-two years after they were last enumerated, the Bihar government on Monday announced the results of a caste census carried out by the state government.
Ninety-two years after they were last enumerated, the Bihar government on Monday announced the results of a caste census carried out by the state government over four months earlier this year, and in the process cemented the political battle-lines around caste, ahead of the crucial 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the 2025 assembly elections in Bihar. Experts in Bihar defined publishing of the data as a seminal moment in the state, and perhaps national polity, that will help consolidate caste groups, raise aspirations of thus far ignored castes, encourage caste-based reservation demands, and reignite Mandal politics.
Thus far, between 1931-- the last time castes were counted-- and 2011, the decadal census only counted religion and numbers of scheduled caste and scheduled tribe populations. The findings of the caste survey, given the nod by the Bihar cabinet in February 2023, showed that Backward Classes(BC) constitute 27.12% of the population in Bihar, Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) 36.01%, scheduled castes(SC) 19.65%, scheduled tribe(ST) 1.68% and general 15.52%.
NK Chowdhary, former head of the economics department at Patna University said that while the government had posited that the caste survey would allow for targeted welfare measures, the “real intention” was to reinforce the centrality of caste to Bihar’s politics. “The political perception is that the BJP is dominated by upper castes. It is clear that these figures will now be used to pursue Mandal politics, and if that takes hold, it is advantage Grand Alliance in Bihar,” Chowdhary said referring to the Janata Dal United, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Congress, and Left alliance currently in power in the state..
DM Diwakar, former director of the AN Sinha Institute for Social Studies said that marginal castes that have been told their counts for the first time in close to a century would now make their voices heard. “It is certain that these castes will demand representation and their political aspiration will now increase, and therefore, backward politics will increase,” Diwakar said,
He said that both the RJD and the JD(U), partners in Bihar’s ruling grand alliance have a catchment areas among the Muslims, Yadavs(the largest caste grouping in Bihar), BC and EBC voters, and that numerically, this was a formidable combination.
In 2024, as things stand, the Grand Alliance will fight the elections against the NDA; in 2019, the NDA, that had both the BJP and the JDU fighting under its umbrella swept Bihar, winning 39 of 40 seats.
Gyanendra Yadav, associate professor of sociology at the College of Commerce said that the caste based survey would help consolidate the support of various marginalized groups. “The EBC numbers are going to play a decisive role, a constituency well nourished by Nitish Kumar since 2005,” said Gyanendra Yadav, associate professor of Sociology, College of Commerce.
In 1990, Prime Minister VP Singh, faced with a resurgent BJP that looked to use Kamandal-- a water pot carried by saints, but because it rhymes with Mandal, a term used by political scientists to describe the BJP’s Hindutva appeal-- made public the Mandal commission report, helmed by former Bihar Chief Minister BP Mandal, and announced a 27% reservation in jobs and educational institutions for other backward classes such as the Yadavs, Kurmis and Koeris. With a dominant BJP at the centre, experts said that it was clear the Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav would now use caste to counter the BJP’s potent mix of Hindutva and social welfare. “If nurtured politically, this could be a game changer from the INDIA alliance to counter the BJP,” said Chowdhary.
Chowdhary however said that there was one factor that the opposition would still have to overcome. “They have to remember this is not 1990, that the BJP has an OBC Prime Minister, and the BJP too has been looking to play backward politics,” Chowdhary said.