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Karnataka elections: Congress seat share 50% in 5 of 6 sub-regions

May 14, 2023 01:01 AM IST

The BJP on the other hand has recorded its worst ever seat shares in Central and Southern sub-regions

With a 43% vote share and 136 out of 224 MLAs in the new legislative assembly, the Congress has pulled off its biggest ever victory in Karnataka since 1989. Is this the result of a strong performance throughout the state or a landslide victory in parts of it? Here is what a region-wise analysis of the results shows.

Congress leaders celebrate their win in the Karnataka assembly elections, in Bengaluru on Saturday. (ANI)
Congress leaders celebrate their win in the Karnataka assembly elections, in Bengaluru on Saturday. (ANI)

The Trivedi Centre for Political Data (TCPD) database on elections classifies Karnataka into six sub-regions, Hyderabad Karnataka, Bombay Karnataka, Central Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka, Southern Karnataka and the Bangalore sub-region. The Congress’s seat share is at least 50% in each of these sub-regions except Coastal Karnataka where the BJP has won 13 ACs compared to six won by the Congress. Its best performance in terms of seat share has come in the central Karnataka sub-region where it has won 70% of the ACs. A comparison with past results – the sub-region analysis cannot be done before 2008 because of change in AC boundaries due to delimitation – shows that the Congress has achieved its best performance in every sub-region of the state in terms of seat share. The BJP on the other hand has recorded its worst ever seat shares in Central and Southern sub-regions.

Whose votes did the Congress eat into to make these gains? This is where vote shares come into play.

The Congress has increased its vote share in every sub-region of the state with the highest gains in central Karnataka and Bombay Karnataka. Its 2023 vote share is the highest in the Hyderabad Karnataka sub-region.

A sub-region wise analysis of change in vote shares shows that the JD (S) is the biggest loser across the state with a fall in vote share in every sub-region between the 2018 and 2023 elections. The BJP has managed to increase its vote share in the Bangalore and southern Karnataka sub-region, but that has come at the cost of JD (S) and others and not the Congress. This is why despite the BJP increasing its seat share in the Bangalore sub-region, the Congress has not experienced a fall in its seat share in any sub-region of the state.

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