Counting today in Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir for first results after LS polls
Votes from 19 million cast in Jammu & Kashmir and Haryana will be counted Tuesday, with exit polls predicting a Congress comeback in Haryana.
Chandigarh/Srinagar/Jammu Roughly 19 million votes cast across Jammu & Kashmir and Haryana over the past three weeks will be counted beginning 8am on Tuesday, bringing the curtain down on the first set of high-octane assembly polls since the Lok Sabha contest this summer.
The results have an impact on national politics, as well as set the stage for another set of significant state elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand later this year.
Exit polls predict that the Congress will roar back to power in Haryana and dethrone the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after a decade. In J&K, pollsters suggest a more messy picture may emerge with the National Conference-Congress alliance holding the edge in a scenario where a hung House is a distinct possibility.
Haryana chief minister Nayab Singh Saini rejected exit poll predictions and asserted that BJP will form the government in the state once again. “Just like Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, the BJP will retain power in Haryana,” he said.
Congress MP Deepender Hooda, however, said that the party will make a comeback in the state. “People had shown a glimpse of this in the Lok Sabha elections and gave the highest 47.6% votes to Congress in Haryana in the entire country,” he said, according to a statement.
Read more: Haryana election results 2024 today: Will BJP celebrate a third term or Congress stage a comeback?
Haryana has recorded 67.90% polling during the single-phase polling on October 5. There were a total 1,031 candidates in the fray, including 101 women and 464 independents.
“We have put in place a three-tier security ring at all the counting centres,” Haryana Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) Pankaj Agarwal said.
In Haryana, the fate of 1,031 candidates, including 464 independents and 101 women, will be decided. The state’s 90 constituencies voted in a single phase on October 5.
Director General of Police (DGP) Shatrujeet Kapur said that the state has established a three-tier security system around the 90 counting centers. While Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) personnel are stationed at the first level of security, Haryana Armed Police (HAP/IRB) officers are deployed at the second level, with district police personnel positioned at the third level. A total of approximately 12,000 police officers have been assigned to ensure security across these centres.
Exit polls predicted that the Congress is likely to comfortably win a simple majority in largely bipolar elections, trouncing the BJP that failed to win a majority five years ago but cobbled together a majority with the Jannayak Janata Party.
Some pollsters indicated that the Congress could even touch its highest-ever vote share.
Exit polls indicated that smaller alliances – such as the Indian National Lok Dal-Bahujan Samaj Party and the Jannayak Janata Party-Azad Samaj Party – could be wiped out.
The BJP was seen as holding on to its core vote but losing out to the Congress that appeared to be gaining across castes and age groups.
The elections were fought on a cocktail of issues ranging from anti-incumbency against the BJP government and discontent around the government’s short-service armed services recruitment scheme, Agnipath to protests by India’s top wrestlers against sexual harassment and farmers’ discontent.
The Congress won 31 seats of the 90 in Haryana in 2019. The BJP bagged 40, falling short of the majority mark of 46. It formed the government with the help of JJP but the alliance collapsed earlier this year when the BJP replaced Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini as the chief minister.
In J&K, the polls gained additional importance because this was the first assembly elections in a decade and also the first such exercise since tectonic changes in August 2019 saw the region lose its special status and statehood.
These elections were seen as critical because they were considered to be the last step before the restoration of statehood. The campaign trail was dominated by emotive issues such as Article 370 and the region’s autonomy and everyday questions of governance and anti-incumbency.
The polls were held over three phases – 24 in the first phase, 26 in the second and 40 in the third. The fate of 873 candidates, vying for a seat in the 90-member House, will be decided on Tuesday.
Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) J&K, Pandurang K Pole today said that the counting of votes will commence at 8am on October 8, 2024 and 28 counting centres have been established for 90 assembly constituencies in 20 districts of the UT.
“There are 28 counting centres across the J&K and we are fully prepared for the counting,” PK Pole said.
Udhampur SSP Amod Ashok Nagpure said that a three-tier security ring will be provide at the counting centres. “In the first layer are troops of the Central Armed Police Force (CAPF), in the second layer are guarded by State Armed Police, and in the third layer are troops of district police. At both strong rooms and Counting halls Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) level officers will supervise security arrangements. Special traffic arrangements have been made for the counting day,” he said.
This was the most fragmented contest in J&K in a generation. Other than the BJP and NC-Congress combine, the Peoples Democratic Party of former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti, former minister Sajjad Gani Lone-led People’s Conference, the Apni Party, Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party, Jamaat-e-Islami-backed independent candidates, and the Democratic Progressive Azad Party were also in the fray.
But the exit polls suggested that the contest was largely limited between the BJP and the NC-Congress combine.
Pollsters predicted that the BJP was likely to emerge as the biggest party in Jammu, leaving behind the NC-Congress alliance and smaller parties. But a completely different picture was tipped to emerge in Kashmir, where the NC-Congress alliance was seen as being miles ahead of other parties and independents. Overall, the exit polls suggested that the NC-Congress alliance could come very close to the majority mark of 46 and some even predicted that it could secure the magic figure on its own.
The lieutenant governor’s powers to nominate five members to the assembly also caused a political upheaval on the eve of counting of votes, with the National Conference threatening to approach the Supreme court after a Bharatiya Janata Party leader suggested the picks will come from his party.
The J&K Reorganisation Act 2019 and the subsequent amendment in 2023 gave the LG powers to nominate five members to the assembly - two women members, two migrants including a woman, and one member from displaced persons from Pakistan occupied Kashmir. The two laws are silent on the modalities of the process and whether the five nominees will be full-time assembly members with voting rights.
But if the five members have full rights, it will push the halfway mark in the assembly from 46 to 48
In 2014, the PDP emerged as the single-largest party with 28 seats and formed an alliance of ideological extremes with the BJP, which had 25 seats. But the coalition collapsed early in 2018 after the BJP withdrew support and Governor’s Rule was imposed in June that year in controversial circumstances. On August 5, 2019, the Union government revoked Article 370 of the Constitution and bifurcated the erstwhile region.