Dec 28: What more we know about Omicron
As the second week of December began, the number of new Covid-19 cases began to inch up in Delhi.
As the second week of December began, the number of new Covid-19 cases began to inch up in Delhi. For the first time in months, the proportion of tests turning up positive remained above 0.1% for several days, crossing 0.2% by the time the third week began.
From there, the trajectory of new cases went on a sustained rise: The city has had an average of 256 new cases every day for the last week, compared to mere 29 a month ago. On Tuesday, 496 tests turned positive, the highest since June 4, when over 500 cases were last recorded.
As the second week of December began, the number of new Covid-19 cases began to inch up in Delhi. For the first time in months, the proportion of tests turning up positive remained above 0.1% for several days, crossing 0.2% by the time the third week began.
From there, the trajectory of new cases went on a sustained rise: The city has had an average of 256 new cases every day for the last week, compared to mere 29 a month ago. On Tuesday, 496 tests turned positive, the highest since June 4, when over 500 cases were last recorded.
|#+|
A similar spike has been recorded in Mumbai. Both cities have announced curbs such as night curfews and put tighter restrictions on how many people can gather.
Do these trends say anything about the Omicron variant of concern (VOC)?
They most likely do.
For one, Delhi and Maharashtra account for the largest numbers of confirmed Omicron infections found in Covid-19 positive international travellers. These two cities account for the bulk of international arrivals into the country.
Among the countries from where foreign arrivals in India most commonly originate is the UK, the second Omicron variant hot spot after South Africa.
Circumstantial evidence suggests a high likelihood then that the cases being recorded in Delhi and Mumbai could be driven by the highly transmissible new variant.
What now?
The experiences of the UK and South Africa suggest if the Omicron variant has indeed taken hold, it will trigger a surge not seen at any point in the pandemic. The average number of new cases in a day, calculated over a week, was over 108,000 in UK, close to double the peak seen in January. By contrast, the number of deaths in a day is roughly only a tenth of what was recorded.
Similar trends were seen in South Africa, where experts first concluded the Omicron variant was milder since deaths and hospitalisations did not rise in sync with new cases.
And what after?
South Africa, the UK and the US have made some major changes to their isolation and quarantine rules to account for the higher transmissibility and potentially lower virulence of the new VOC.
On December 24, South Africa’s health ministry issued new Covid-19 guidelines to scrap mandatory isolation and testing for people in close contact with a known positive case unless they have symptoms. Instead, asymptomatic people should monitor their health and avoid large gatherings for 5-7 days and get tested only if they develop any signs that suggest Covid-19. Those with mild symptoms should isolate for eight days and severe cases for 10 days, the government said, according to Reuters.
In the UK, the government said on December 22 that people diagnosed with Covid-19 can end their isolation on Day 7 if they have tested negative twice through home rapid tests taken on days 6 and 7. The new approach that was meant to remain protective will minimise the impact on lives and livelihoods, UK Health Security Agency chief Jenny Harries told The Guardian at the time.
The US made the most drastic change of all. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Monday shortened the recommended isolation time for Americans with asymptomatic cases of Covid-19 to five days from 10 days.
India may need to confront the possibility and feasibility of some of these steps. But for that to happen, it needs an accurate assessment of the variant causing the infection and whether it is indeed leading to less severe outcomes – which is possible only with more detailed data on hospitalisations and genome sequencing.