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Wide off the mark exit polls emerge as the biggest losers in Lok Sabha verdict

Jun 04, 2024 12:02 PM IST

Early trends suggest that the Opposition’s INDIA bloc has made massive gains when compared to the 2019 numbers, and is on course to cross the 200-seat mark.

To say that the exit polls on June 1 were exaggerated and wide off the mark is to make an understatement.

Polling officials at a counting centre in Agartala, on Tuesday, June 4, 2024.(PTI)
Polling officials at a counting centre in Agartala, on Tuesday, June 4, 2024.(PTI)

Early trends suggest that the Opposition’s INDIA bloc has made massive gains when compared to the 2019 numbers, and is on course to cross the 200-seat mark.

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However, the NDA still looks poised to return to power, already close to the majority mark, but with a much-reduced mandate and ability to legislate at will.

The Exit Polls had given the ruling NDA a two-thirds majority in the 543-member lower house of Parliament, where 272 is needed for a simple majority.

Six exit polls projected the NDA to win a whopping 355 to 380 seats. The opposition's INDIA alliance was seen as a poor second, placed anywhere between 125 and 165 seats.

As things stand now, the INDIA bloc has practically reversed the exit polls predictions, already gaining 77 seats when compared to the 2019 numbers. If the current trends are taken into consideration, NDA is down 49 seats, which the Exit polls had no clue about.

ALSO READ: How accurate were exit polls in 2019, 2014

The most stunning results, as of now, appear to be coming from politically critical UP, which hosts the country’s most high-profile political candidates.

Exit poll results on Saturday evening showed that the BJP-led NDA sweeping Uttar Pradesh, winning at least 65-plus out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state, while tipping the opposition INDIA bloc - SP-Congress - to take the remaining seat.

The Congress has put up a strong fight in Uttar Pradesh, leading in six seats, until reports last came in. In Rae Bareli, Rahul Gandhi is leading by 28,326 votes against Dinesh Pratap Singh of BJP and in Amethi, KL Sharma is leading by a margin of about 10,423 votes against Union minister Smriti Irani.

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