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Maharashtra election: Exit polls give edge to Mahayuti

ByDhrubo Jyoti, New Delhi
Nov 21, 2024 11:48 AM IST

Exit polls suggest Mahayuti may retain power in Maharashtra, while Jharkhand's outcome remains uncertain. Votes will be counted on November 23

The Mahayuti is likely to hold an edge over the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in fiercely fought assembly elections in Maharashtra but the scenario in Jharkhand could be more fluid, a clutch of exit polls predicted on Wednesday.

Voters wait in queues to cast their vote for the Maharashtra assembly elections, in Akola on Wednesday. (ANI)
Voters wait in queues to cast their vote for the Maharashtra assembly elections, in Akola on Wednesday. (ANI)

In Maharashtra, which voted on Wednesday, most major exit polls predicted that the Mahayuti was on course to retain power and gain a slim majority, defeating the MVA. If this trend holds true, it will mean that the three-party alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has reversed the momentum of the MVA, which won 30 Lok Sabha seats compared to the Mahayuti’s 17.

The exit polls were more mixed about Jharkhand, where the two-phase elections are a prestige battle for chief minister Hemant Soren who went to jail on corruption charges last year. Some exit polls predicted that the National Democratic Alliance would win a slim majority but others said that the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-Congress alliance was headed for a comfortable majority.

To be sure, exit polls are not always accurate and have often got the verdict wrong in earlier elections, especially in states with diverse populations, castes and communities. These elections are also a litmus test for pollsters and their methodology since an overwhelming majority of them got the predictions for the Lok Sabha polls as well as Haryana wrong. Stung by the inaccurate forecasts, many pollsters adopted a low-key approach in releasing their data on Wednesday evening, with some even staying away from calling the tough seats.

The votes will be counted on November 23.

Read more: Assembly elections: Most exit polls give edge to NDA in Maharashtra, Jharkhand

The assembly elections not only held an opportunity to rule India’s wealthiest state and one of its most mineral-rich provinces, but also offered a chance to alter national political dynamics. The BJP went into the elections just weeks after pulling off a historic and improbable victory in Haryana while the Congress and its regional allies looked to build on their Lok Sabha performances and stave off infighting and complacency that cost them Haryana.

Both states saw chaotic election campaigns. In Maharashtra, both major alliances took weeks to finalise their seat pacts, with hectic negotiations continuing minutes before the deadline. The role of rebels is also expected to be a key factor. Both alliances promised an array of sops and welfare benefits.

The western state of Maharashtra that sends the second-highest number of parliamentarians to the Lok Sabha saw a direct battle between two mega alliances – the ruling Mahayuti, comprising the BJP, the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party, and the Maha Vikas Aghadi, comprising the Congress, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar). Also in the fray were a litany of smaller outfits such as the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, the Bahujan Vikas Aghadi, and the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi.

Jharkhand voted across two phases on November 13 (43 seats in the eastern part of the state) and November 20 (38 seats in the western part of the state). The mineral-rich state, which also boasts of the second-highest proportion of tribespeople in India, saw a largely bipolar battle between the ruling Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) led by the JMM, and the NDA led by the BJP.

This round of elections came at an important moment in national politics. The BJP hoped to keep up the momentum after its unexpected victory in Haryana that saw the party post its highest vote and seat share and beat the Congress narrowly, defying exit poll predictions. A good showing in Maharashtra and Jharkhand will embolden the party nationally, boost its plans to usher in big-bang reforms and puncture the Opposition’s narrative that the Lok Sabha polls, which saw the BJP fail to secure a majority on its own, had robbed the NDA of a decisive mandate.

The INDIA bloc will take solace from its comprehensive victory in Jammu and Kashmir, but the Congress will look to reverse its sorry showing in both states that went to the polls and plug lacunae such as infighting, overconfidence and factionalism. The Opposition bloc will take heart in its impressive showing in both provinces, but especially Maharashtra, in the Lok Sabha elections.

The polls in Maharashtra, which houses India’s financial capital of Mumbai, also held high stakes for two regional outfits – the Sena and the NCP – that suffered vertical splits in the last three years and vied for the same chunk of the electorate. The legacy of the Thackeray family and the Pawar family were, once again, among the decisive issues in these polls.

In Maharashtra, all but two exit polls predicted that the Mahayuti was likely to comfortably win a simple majority in largely bipolar elections, trouncing the MVA which they forecast failed to maintain the momentum of its Lok Sabha performance.

The elections were fought on a cocktail of issues ranging from competing claims of quotas by different communities, most prominent among them being the Marathas, farm distress, welfare benefits such as the 1,500 under the Ladki Bahin scheme, and regional pride.

In the last two weeks, the campaign was tinged in a communal tone after the BJP used the “ek hain toh safe hain” (if we’re united, we’ll be safe) and the “batenge toh kitenge” (if we’re divided, we’ll be cut down) slogans, cautioning marginalised castes to not fall for the Opposition’s caste census promise and remain united under the Hindu umbrella.

In 2019, the BJP-undivided Sena alliance secured a majority, with the former winning 105 and the latter 56. But the alliance collapsed due to differences over the chief ministerial post. The BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis was sworn in as chief minister with the NCP’s Ajit Pawar his deputy on November 23, 2019. The two resigned three days later. On November 28, 2019, Sena, NCP, and Congress formed the government as part of an ideologically disparate MVA, with Uddhav Thackeray as the chief minister.

But Thackeray resigned on June 29, 2022, after Eknath Shinde led 40 lawmakers to rebel against the Sena. On June 30, 2022 he was sworn in as chief minister with support from the BJP and with Fadnavis as his deputy. In July 2023, the NCP split with Ajit Pawar and 40 leaders breaking away from the parent party to join the Shinde-led government. Ajit Pawar, who was the deputy CM in the outgoing MVA government, again became deputy to Shinde along with Fadnavis.

In Jharkhand, three exit polls predicted a majority for the NDA, two for the INDIA bloc and one a small edge for the NDA. All exit polls predicted that the JMM was doing well in the tribal-dominated areas of the state and the BJP in the urban belt, but differed about their assessments in the other regions.

In 2019, the JMM-led alliance emerged as the winner in Jharkhand with 47 seats. The BJP bagged 25 seats. In the 2024 general elections, the BJP won eight of the 14 Lok Sabha seats, with the JMM winning three and the Congress two. The BJP’s long-term ally All Jharkhand Students Union won the last seat.

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