Exit polls predict big win, hat-trick for Modi
Exit polls predict a landslide victory for BJP in Indian general elections, with PM Modi poised for a historic third consecutive term.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is cruising to a landslide victory in the general elections and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to become the first prime minister since Jawaharlal Nehru to secure three consecutive terms, a clutch of exit polls predicted on Saturday as the Lok Sabha polls closed after six gruelling weeks.
All 10 national prominent exit polls predicted an emphatic win for the BJP and some even forecast a two-thirds majority for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 543-member House. The party was projected to be ahead of its rivals across the span of the heartland, and putting up its best-ever showing in south India — suggesting the Modi wave is stronger than ever and the BJP is expanding its footprint in places hitherto unconquered.
In contrast, the Opposition’s Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) appeared to be losing its footing across central and northern India with the Congress projected to perform poorly in the 190-odd seats where it is in direct contest with the BJP. The Congress was projected to post poor results in Karnataka, a state where it won the biggest victory in a generation just last year, and not being able to capitalise on its victory in neighbouring Telangana either.
The exit polls predicted that the BJP’s tally will cross its 2019 mark and could even touch 350 with its main opponent, the Congress, likely to be restricted below 75.
Overall, exit polls suggested that Modi was a pan-India factor that boosted the BJP’s performance across state and regional divides and lifted the party to sweep states it hitherto had little presence in — such as Telangana or Odisha. A majority of the polls predicted that a potential third term for Modi could be with a bigger mandate than his first or second terms.
In contrast, the Opposition’s plan of forcing one-on-one contests may have backfired, the polls suggested; other than a smattering of small gains in northern India, the Opposition was seen as losing seats everywhere.
To be sure, exit polls are not always accurate and have often got the verdict wrong in earlier elections, especially in states with diverse populations, castes and communities. But they are useful in identifying trends. The results will be announced on June 4.
But if these trends hold, it’ll mean a return to the post-2014 normal of state elections being competitive polls where the BJP faces a fight, and the national elections being largely one-sided where the BJP is able to open up a big lead over the Opposition due to the Modi premium — the ground connect enjoyed by Modi, who remains India’s most popular leader by some distance.
It might also mean that the BJP and the NDA will end up very close to Modi’s pre-poll targets of 370 and 400 seats, respectively.
“I can say with confidence that the people of India have voted in record numbers to re-elect the NDA government. They have seen our track record and the manner in which our work has brought about a qualitative change in the lives of the poor, marginalised and downtrodden,” Modi posted on X shortly after voting for the 57 Lok Sabha sears across seven states and Union Territories closed.
“The opportunistic INDI Alliance failed to strike a chord with the voters. They are casteist, communal and corrupt. This alliance, aimed to protect a handful of dynasties, failed to present a futuristic vision for the nation. Through the campaign, they only enhanced their expertise on one thing — Modi bashing. Such regressive politics has been rejected by the people,” he added.
Before the exit polls were broadcast, members of the INDIA bloc met in Delhi. “The INDIA bloc will get more than 295 seats. We have arrived at this figure after speaking with all our leaders,” Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge told reporters after the meeting.
“This is a survey of people. People have given this information to our leaders. The government surveys are there and their media friends also inflate figures and put it out. Therefore, we want to tell you about the reality.”
The exit polls also suggested that a clutch of powerful regional parties — such as the Trinamool Congress in Bengal, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi in Telangana and the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha — might suffer landslide defeats and lose a large chunk of their vote share to the BJP.
In the 130-odd seats of south India, where the INDIA bloc was hoping to make maximum gains, almost every exit poll showed the BJP making gains in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, two states where the party had struggled to find a footing and winning a landslide victory in Karnataka. The party, along with alliance partner Telugu Desam Party, was seen as sweeping Andhra Pradesh too, pushing the ruling YSR Congress Party to a distant second. In neighbouring Telangana, exit polls predicted a collapse of the BRS and the BJP emerging as the single-largest party, winning a lion’s share of the 17 seats in the state.
Overall in southern India, the NDA and INDIA blocs were forecast to be neck and neck. If these trends hold, it’ll be bad news for the Opposition which was hoping to sweep these regions.
In the battleground state of Maharashtra with 48 seats, where vertical splits in two regional behemoths Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party rendered politics unpredictable, national exit polls gave the edge to the NDA but predicted a tough contest. Some regional channels predicted a dead heat with a slight edge to the Opposition.
In West Bengal with 42 seats, most national exit polls suggested that the BJP will edge out the TMC and become the single-largest party in the eastern state, with one — India Today-AxisMyIndia — hinting that the BJP might get double the number of seats than the regional outfit. If these trends hold true, it’ll be a massive blow to chief minister Mamata Banerjee, who will face re-election in two years.
In Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, most exit polls suggested that the BJP will better its 2019 showing of 62 seats and the NDA might win around 70 of the 80 seats on offer. In contrast, the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance was seen as winning only 8-10 seats.
In neighbouring Bihar, exit polls predicted that the BJP and its partner Janata Dal (United) will win roughly three-fourths of the 40 seats on offer. The opposition grand alliance was projected to win about eight to 10 seats.
The polls held out bad news for the Aam Aadmi Party, which was projected as doing badly in both Delhi and Punjab, two provinces it controls right now. Exit polls said the AAP-Congress alliance could either get wiped out in Delhi, or win one seat at the most. With party boss Arvind Kejriwal scheduled to go back to jail on Sunday, these figures could hold an existential threat to the party.
Elsewhere in India, the NDA was projected to suffer small losses in Rajasthan and Haryana but exit polls predicted that it will more than make up for them in the north and east. The larger directional trend was a remarkable expansion of footprint for the BJP and an unprecedented showing for a PM in his third term. For the Opposition, these numbers — should they be correct — will mean that the INDIA bloc experiment had failed. Now its over to June 4 for the real verdict.