Factors that may influence BJP’s performance across states
Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Assam account for a total of 69 parliamentary constituencies (PCs) of which the BJP currently holds 63 , a seat share of 91.3%
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the longest till date in history, have reached the final stage with voting in all 543 parliamentary constituencies (PCs) complete. All that remains now is the counting of votes, which will happen on June 4. Given the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) status as the dominant political force going into the elections, HT analysed the contest by grouping states into categories based on factors that could influence the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) performance in these states.
We categorised the states as: one, hegemonic states of the BJP, where the party has a secure hold; two, states with troubled allies, where the party’s partners have weakened since 2019; three, states where the BJP’s national Brand Modi plus Hindutva strategy competes against local factors and where the party has underperformed in state elections compared to 2019; four, Opposition-ruled states where the BJP could gain due to anti-incumbency; five, states with cultural barriers against the BJP; six, states where merely repeating its 2019 performance is insufficient for the BJP given the target it has set for itself this election (370); and seven, other smaller states and Union territories.
BJP strongholds
Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Assam account for a total of 69 parliamentary constituencies (PCs) of which the BJP currently holds 63 , a seat share of 91.3%. It also holds 70.4% of the overall assembly constituencies in these states. The primary reason for the BJP’s strong grip over these states is the weakness of Congress, the primary opposition party. To be sure, the BJP’s hold over Assam is relatively weaker than the other two states in the list. While the party had a vote share of 62.2% and 58% in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh respectively in 2019, its vote share in Assam was 36.1%. This is because of the comparatively larger proportion of Muslim population in Assam. However, the BJP has done well to unite Bengali and Assamese Hindus in the state, leveraging which it secured a seat share of 64.3% in 2019. (See Chart 1)
States with troubled allies and those where Modi-Hindutva plank competes against local factors
The second category of states comprises Bihar and Maharashtra, which together have 88 PCs . The BJP itself won 40 of these seats in 2019,a seat share to 45.5%; with its partners it won 80 of the seats in 2019, giving the NDA a seat share of 91%. Although the NDA currently rules both these states, the strength of BJP’s alliance partners in both these states has declined since 2019, and the NDA’s seat share in these states could see a fall. In Bihar, the stature of the Janata Dal (United) and Nitish Kumar are not what they were in 2019, and the Rashtriya Janata Dal has revived under Tejashwi Yadav. The NDA overall won 39 of 40 PCs in the state in 2019, with the BJP winning 17. In Maharashtra, although the BJP is in alliance with the factions recognised as the official Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party, the opposing factions of the two led by Uddhav Thackeray (Shiv Sena - UBT) and Sharad Pawar (NCP-SP) have allied with the Congress. The churn makes it difficult to predict the outcome of the Maharashtra elections. The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won 41 of 48 PCs in the state in 2019.
The third category of states and UTs, namely Rajasthan, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Haryana and Delhi, account for 95 PCs . The BJP won 86 of those seats in 2019, an overall seat share of 90.5%. However, the party hasn’t done as well in assembly elections in these states since , as is evident by its overall AC seat share in these states currently being much lower at 43.7%. To be sure, the BJP is the single largest party in the state assemblies of Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Haryana, albeit with a much lower seat share and vote share compared to its performance in 2019 general elections. And it’s important to note that the BJP is known to perform much better in national elections in these states than assembly elections. In fact, the BJP did not have a state government in five of these states and UTs when the 2019 elections were held. (See Chart 2)
Opposition-ruled states where the BJP can gain seats
The BJP is expected to add to its 2019 tally in West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. The party won 30 (28.6%) out of the 105 PCs in these states in 2019. In West Bengal and Odisha, where the BJP is the principal opposition party, it hopes to bank on anti-incumbency against reigning TMC and BJD. In Andhra Pradesh, where the BJP won no seats in 2019, it has entered into an alliance with the TDP and Jana Sena against the ruling YSRCP. In Telangana, although it is trying its best to eat into the share of the ruling Congress, it could gain even without hurting the Congress by targeting the BRS, which saw both its vote and seat shares decline in the recent state elections. (See Chart 3)
States where the party faces cultural barriers
Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Punjab -- with 72 PCs in total -- have been the last frontier for the BJP in all elections till date. This is largely because the sociocultural aspects of politics in these states . Even Brand Modi, which has worked elsewhere, has failed to win the party any seats in these states. To be sure, the BJP has been pushing hard seeking to leverage anti-incumbency against the ruling parties in these states in recent years. Although this could result in marginal increase in vote share for the party, it remains to be seen whether it will be able to convert them into seats. In Punjab and Tamil Nadu, the BJP has a tougher challenge than it had in 2019 because it is fighting the elections on its own after the Shiromani Akali Dal and the All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam walked out of the NDA. (See Chart 4)
The most important state for the BJP will be Uttar Pradesh
The sixth category, consisting of just Uttar Pradesh which has 80 PCs, saw the BJP winning as many as 71 PCs in 2014. The party also withstood a fierce challenge from the alliance of SP and BSP in 2019, to win 62 PCs in 2019. However, with the SP and BSP contesting separately in 2024, the BJP is expected to improve on its 2019 tally in 2024. This is also why anything less cannot be seen as a good enough result. (See Chart 5)
Smaller states and Union territories
Smaller states and UTs account for a total of 34 PCs, out of which the BJP won 20 in 2019. The party will need to gain at least a few more seats in this group to achieve its target of improving its 2019 performance.
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